Time for Pre Election Market Rally | CA Rachana Ranade
Published: 2023-11-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2023-11-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Based on an average historical pre-election rally of 15-20%, the Nifty could potentially reach 21,000, representing a 20% increase.
"if we were to average this out the average comes to somewhere around 15 to 20% right still in that case Nifty on a on a very base side also Nifty could rally up to 21,000, if we are saying 20% returns okay and since in that case would be 70,800 this is crazy isn't it"
Pending
Even with a conservative estimate of a 10% rally from the current 19,000 level, the Nifty could reach 21,000.
"but even if I were to say chalo this is 9%, 5% was a minimum but see 9%, 9% even 11% Thrice so even if I were to say 10% we are at 19,000 right now 19,000 about 10% will still take us to a level of almost 21,000"
Pending
The Indian market returned 63% in the one-year period leading up to the 1991 general elections.
"Now if you see here uh let's get started one by one the very first one we are going to understand is what happened in 1991 now here the elections took place somewhere around in the month of June and that is why we have to understand what happened from May 90 to May 91 and this whole year market gave a return of 63%"
Pending
In the six months prior to the 1991 general elections, the Sensex (Indian stock market index) rose by approximately 9.28%.
"Now if you see here from for the six months time frame if I were to check Sensex went up by almost 9.28% so almost 10%"
Pending
The Indian market returned 20.8% in the one-year period leading up to the 1996 general elections.
"here again same thing elections happened in the month of May and again if I want to track April 95 to April 96 returns were 20.8%"
Pending
In the six months prior to the 1996 general elections, the market returned approximately 9.07%.
"and if I want to understand 6 months prior to the period still the returns were around 9.07%"
Pending
In the one-year period leading up to the 1998 general elections, market returns were flat due to political instability. In the six months prior, there was a negative return of 6.5%.
"and here if you see almost returns were flat no big returns again political instability was one of the major reasons for that and if you see six months prior it was in fact a negative return of 6.5%"
Pending
The Indian market rallied 51.5% in the year preceding the October 1999 general elections.
"and in 99 the elections took place in October and here markets rallied one year prior the returns were around 51.5%"
Pending
In the six months prior to the October 1999 general elections, the market returned 27.56%.
"and if I'm talking about six months prior it was 27.56%"
Pending
The Indian market returned 90.6% in the one-year period leading up to the May 2004 general elections.
"April 2003 to April 2004 it gave a return of 90.6%"
Pending
In the six months prior to the May 2004 general elections, the market returned 15.26%.
"but even if I'm talking about the last six months period that is November to the April month uh typically you can see here it was 15.26% return"
Pending
In the year leading up to the 2009 general elections, the market experienced a 35.2% decline due to the Lehman Brothers crisis.
"here you will see a negative return one year negative return of 35.2% you might be like why reason was very simple right it was Lehman crisis 2008 and because of which the markets gave weightage more to the Lehman Brothers crisis and the markets saw a sharp fall"
Pending
Despite the overall annual fall, in the six months prior to the 2009 general elections, the market returned 16.5%.
"but if you check six months prior to the election you will again see October to April you'll see 16.5% return"
Pending
In the one-year period leading up to the 2014 general elections, the market returned approximately 14.5%, and in the six months prior, it was around 5.6%.
"if I were to talk about one year returns it was 14 1/2% almost and six months return were around 5.6%"
Pending
In the one-year period leading up to the 2019 general elections, the market returned 11.5%, and in the six months prior, it was 11.28%.
"overall a year one year return was around 11.5% and last 6 months returns were again 11.28%"
Pending
Excluding the Lehman crisis year, historical data suggests the Indian market has generally rallied in the one year and six months prior to general elections.
"all in all if I were to talk about a one- year data see how many years we have checked right now 91-96 8 99 2004 9 14 and 19. Now if you see all in all these were the returns barring two years okay this is a bare minimum and this was a crazy fall because of Lehman Brothers crisis barring this one market has given a rally before election this is one year before election and if I'm talking about six months still 6 months has given a decent enough rally"
Pending
Japanese government bond yields may increase slightly above 1%, potentially leading institutional investors to invest more in their domestic market.
"now the yields may go at 1% may even cross a little bit above 1% and if that be so if yields are increasing in Japan would the institutional investors be more interested in their own market possibility number one is yes"
Pending
If Japanese investors shift investments from US Treasury bonds to their domestic market, it could lead to selling pressure on US Treasury bonds, decreasing their prices.
"what could happen if Japanese investors feel that instead of us let's invest in our own country what could they do they may sell the bonds they may sell US Treasury bonds if they were to sell then it will create a selling pressure more supply for US Treasury bonds less demand will decrease the price of bonds normal economics right"
Pending
US banks may be facing at least $650 billion in unrealized losses due to the sharp increase in US Treasury bond yields.
"currently US banks are facing a big problem because of the sharp increase in yields they have huge amount of unrealized losses because of this situation and believe it or not US Banks could be grappling with at least $650 billion of unrealized losses"
Pending
A potential solution for the US Federal Reserve to address rising yields and US bank losses could be to lower US Treasury bond yields, which would imply lowering interest rates.
"now if the the FED were to stop this If the FED were to come up with a solution for this one possible solution could be in fact dropping the yields of US Treasury bonds. Dropping yields is equal to basically they would have to drop the interest rates there okay"
Pending
If US interest rates drop, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who are currently net sellers, might shift investments from bonds to equities, potentially becoming net buyers in the Indian market in the coming months.
"then for the FIIS that would mean that instead of parking our money in the bond market let us park our money in the equity market and that could be a situation where the FIIS right now if you if you are aware about the fact right now FIIS are net sellers for the last two three months there could be a possibility that FIIS may turn to be the net buyers in the coming months"
Pending
The Indian market may see a positive rally due to a pre-election rally and the economic situation in Japan.
"and that could also lead to a push in the rally for our markets. So I hope you have understood the whole video the thought process why I feel that a bull rally might be on the cards two quick reasons as a wrap up Number one we said it is because of a pre-election rally and Number two because of the Japanese situation our Indian markets may see a positive rally."
Pending