Can this theme be the next multibagger? | Mahurat Trading | Samvat 2080 | CA Rachana Ranade

"this is Yuko Bank chart okay by the way I hope you able to see I'm just going to close the macd I'm going to close RSI don't focus on the price right now okay price has fallen from what Yuko Bank alltime high is around 130 current price is around only 38 39 whatever but have a look at this volume bars now volume is nowhere and have a look at this volume starting somewhere around so December 22 was the first time when the volume bar was like crazy high and you can see no volume and all of a sudden within the last one year volume has started picking up we'll also try and see what is the Fibonacci level for this stock that from the highs how much has it corrected at what level it is so even if I were to check Fibonacci so from low to high if I want to check this is at a 23% retracement exactly okay now we'll have to see if it is able to sustain above the 23% retracement next resistance comes up at a 38% retracement right so if you can see here 38 2 to be precise 38.2% retracement and at that point it'll be 54.9 almost around 55 levels okay"

"now again same old story right no volume no volume no volume okay no volume at all and all of a sudden the volume again has started picking up right same old story but same old bad performance uh from the levels of almost 195 to the lower levels of almost 10 Rupees crazy and right now you can see it took a resistance at 23 and it it was not able to sustain above 23% retracement and just slowed down from there a little bit still not above the 23% retracement so careful right"

"same old story okay just wanted to tell you that there is something common here no volume no volume no volume and all of a sudden last one or two years volume has started picking up like anything right again what was the all-time high for iob and if you see here alltime high was around 176 to a horrible low of 6 Rupees 65 PES okay 6 rupees 65 p and from there we are still at a 20 23% retracement still struggling at that uh so again ideally we have to at least get a 23% retracement it has to sustain above that ideally as per technical analysis and then you try and do more and more analysis right"

"Union Bank of India now if you see here volumes have already started picking up for quite a long time so this doesn't fit into the volume criteria if I were to check about the retracement just adjust it a little bit more okay this one is above the 23% retracement next uh resistance will be around 38.2"

"State Bank of India now if you see State Bank of India has a little bit different story volumes have been great okay in fact here the volumes were a little bit High volumes were are not extremely high right now but you can see that this again was a huge consolidation for SBI the pattern that we saw for the index is a similar pattern that we can see uh consolidation right from 2010 111 till till we saw a Breakout 21 okay and here you can see it has slowly steadily started to rise a bit and again if I were to check this uh 1X will be 1X we are around 1X 2x will be around 750 levels okay again not this is not like a price Target or anything like that as per technical analysis if there's a huge squeeze then 1X 2x is what is from the breakout line"

"Bank of Bara and if you have a look at this Bank of B is also interesting uh again on a monthly chart but this has not seen a huge squeeze per se this was the top but still top in 2014 2014 again 2015 then in 2015 again try to go closer to that 2017 Tred to go closer to that 2022 and here you can see there is a huge almost last one 2 3 four five months it is hovering here if it is able to break out from this level if it is able to sustain Above This level again if I were to Now quickly check this out this is more or less like a cup and handle pattern formation you can very clearly see this I'll just quickly draw this for you as well this is like the cup small handle and here you can see it broke out saw some sort of retest now it'll be interesting to see whether it is able to bounce from this level or not"

"what we are interested to check is the PBT numbers because after The NPS because that is what was the biggest problem of all the public sector Banks they were not able to handle The NPS and because of which The NPS were you know taking a big hit on the profitability of the company and if you see here quickly if you see here from 2016 minus the 2018 loss 2020 loss and from 21 if you see 21 first time 6,000 crores almost profit 22 was 10,000 CR profit 22 10,000 CR profit and 23 is 20,000 profit profit is almost doubled bottom line is almost doubled for Bank of Baroda"

"have a look at this profit before tax only 2018 was one year when it was in loss okay but now if you have a look at this 2019 was 5,000 crores profit 30,000 crores 32,000 cres okay forget it but like we compared for Bank of B 22 versus 23 this is around 50,000 CR profit and this is 75,000 crores profit it's like what 50% increase in profit for a big renowned Bank like State Bank of India I think this is really interesting to watch okay"

"something like a Yuko Bank 22 1750 and 23 295 uh not exactly doubled but still on a pretty much higher side"

"Central Bank of India let's quickly go to the pnl again you can see from 1700 to 2700"

"iob as well Indian overseas Bank let's go to the pnl 1700 to 2300 not a great jump though"

"Union Bank of India profit 8,000 12,000 almost 50%"

"rashna ranad I would have given an advice that if you are worried about the stock market if you're not sure about the stock market number one if you have that Vision if you have that long-term perspective then at least start your journey by some name which is a renowned name okay not an intraday thing but I would have told rashna that you are doing fds in State Bank of India if you're doing fds in State Bank of India why don't you you know start your first investment by maybe buying only one share if you are if you are scared like I always say whenever for the first time if you are jumping in the swimming pool will you go and directly jump you'll not do that right you'll just first touch that water maybe then one small foot down just a leg down and then when you are comfortable then you'll go all in right similarly maybe just buying one share maybe just buying five shares and that is how I would have slowly and steadily gained more and more confidence"

"we broke a big Myth today as well that bigger Banks like SBI all these Banks do have the capability do have the capacity to post 50 50% increase in net profit it's all about how uh the overall management takes place"

"19,500 is a key level yes tashu has actually mentioned 19,500 today right now as I speak it's 19533 uh so already above the 19,500 mark super happy it has to close above that watch it out if it closes above 19,500 let's see hopefully we can see some firecrackers in Nifty as well"

"after Modi G's speech wherein he had said that share market right that I'm not copying him in any way okay but that was that was a speech that he gave that went super viral and that is when he had mentioned that anyone who keeps interest in stock market and uh I think they are the ones who should really think about investing in the public sector related theme uh after he he spoke about that I actually started me my team we started analyzing a lot of uh you know public sector themes and in that we found that there is one theme which is public sector Banks which I feel there is some Z thing which is actually playing up"

"this is the Nifty PSU Bank index okay this is entire Nifty PSU Bank index and this is a monthly chart that I have pulled up right now if you see here it has been range bound since what I mean just have a look at this this stop at 562 index level this was in 2010 since 2010 this entire space has not given any return it was high low lower high almost lower low lower high again a lower low and this was the immediate previous High I hope you are able to see this this was the immediate previous high was this broken yes or no I don't know so just have a look at this now I'm going to zoom this I hope you are able to understand this one more time for those who did not understand see first of all we have to try and spot if there is any Trend reversal or not correct so high low lower high almost a lower low lower high again a lower low and first to get outside that downtrend we have to see a breakout so this was not like a very sharp downtrend but more or less like a sluggish downtrend slow downtrend okay so this was the immediate previous High which was needed to be broken so I'm just going to draw a horizontal line here we'll just try and make it a little bit a little bit more accurate okay now if you can see a one minute this is a bit more accurate yes so I'm just going to zoom this in further okay so was this broken attempt was done to break it but then it did not it collapsed and again we saw in the month of July 2023 this year July 2023 we saw that it got broken immediate next month we saw within the same month it almost saw a retest and now maybe this is just the beginning of a bounce that we can see so again understand this was the level which had to be broken"

"as per technical analysis if I'm talking about a cup and handle pattern ideally okay this was the Low by the way the cup could have been a little bit lower as well as per cup and handle pattern if this be so if the neckline is broken then from the neckline you have to place the distance and this one comes up to around 7,500 but this is at index level I'm not talking about a specific PSU Bank stock I'm talking about this from an index level perspective so I hope you have understood about the cup and handle pattern formation"

"technical analysis says is that longer the consolidation bigger the breakout or more convincing the breakout is now how can I understand whether the breakout is convincing or not for that we have to see volumes I'm repeating to understand whether the breakout is convincing or not we have to try and analyze the volume and if the volumes are higher it means that more and more people are participating in this now at an index level here I cannot see volumes and that is the reason why we would want to check out the volumes of the stocks which are a part of this public sector undertaking index"

"if this is such a long consolidation then easily 1X from here from the breakout is a bare minimum and many of times 2x of this is also possible again I'm talking about this from an index level perspective even if I'm talking about 1X this is this is it this is almost 6,400 currently the index is at around 5,000 So 20% ideally and if this is you might be like really 2x if it's a long consolidation 2x okay I think I've talked about this stock for quite some time but this is also a stock from the public sector undertaking space I mean this is crazy right same same pattern see from 201910 same consolidation and from here if I were to count see now this is from the lower most point till this point this is 50 50 you know uh points up move from here and if I were to calculate from here 50 points up move 50 is done I can't even go beyond that it's almost 200 plus it's almost 200 plus so 4X from here even if I talk about PFC Power Finance Corporation same pattern exactly same pattern long consolidation and breakout even if I were to see here from the consolidation lower part to the upper part this is around 54 points again and if I were to just check from here 54 points to CH though this is again 190 so this is again 4X from here if I'm talking about Nifty PSU Banks going back to uh this one that we were discussing index level that we were discussing 1X is still around 6,500 and 2x is around 9,200 we are not even talking about 4X and whatnot okay"

"number one uh the bad debts for which they had provided now the whole provisioning thing is done okay second thing if I'm talking about is a strong recovery third thing you can see overall check the gnpa check the nnpa levels they are they are definitely recovering overall capitalization is good for public sector undertaking Banks and I feel that the credit growth that we can see in all these public sector undertaking Banks is again pretty good"

"And as per technical analysis if I'm talking about a cup and handle pattern ideally, okay, this was the low. By the way, the cup could have been a little bit lower as well. As per cup and handle pattern, if this be, so if the neckline is broken, then from the neckline you have to place the distance and this one comes up to around 7,500."

"longer the consolidation, bigger the breakout or more convincing the breakout is. Now, how can I understand whether the breakout is convincing or not, for that we have to see volumes."

"1X is still around 6,500 and 2X is around 9,200."

"from 21, if you see, 21, first time 6,000 crores almost profit. 22 was 10,000 CR profit. 22, 10,000 CR profit and 23 is 20,000 profit. Profit is almost doubled."

"22 versus 23, this is around 50,000 CR profit and this is 75,000 crores profit. It's like what, 50% increase in profit for a big renowned Bank like State Bank of India."

"Union Bank of India profit 8,000, 12,000, almost 50%."

"and here you can see it has slowly steadily started to rise a bit and again if I were to check this, 1X will be 1X, we are around 1X, 2X will be around 750 levels."

"and here you can see there is a huge almost last 1, 2, 3, four, five months it is hovering here. If it is able to break out from this level, if it is able to sustain above this level, again, if I were to now quickly check this out, this is more or less like a cup and handle pattern formation."

"number one, uh the bad debts for which they had provided now the whole provisioning thing is done. Second thing, if I'm talking about is a strong recovery. Third thing you can see overall, check the GNPA, check the NNPA levels, they are they are definitely recovering. Overall capitalization is good for public sector undertaking Banks and I feel that the credit growth that we can see in all these public sector undertaking Banks is again pretty good."