Is the rally over? | CA Rachana Ranade

"I feel that yes it it may all all Specialty Chemicals right including Earth Industries may start performing in the next Financial year so uh was also just checking pulling the chart for AR Industries let me just pull it up again one more time and if you see here this is the monthly chart so if you see here this is a long-term trend line that I tred to draw right now okay so if you see here it took a resistance here again came down tried to go up again came down again this came down again this came down and finally it has given a breakthrough here okay so I think this is a downward trend line downward sloping trend trend line that has been broken last month was the first month when it I mean of course uh it broke this downward trend line in November it continued its upward Trend in December RC industry so in two months just two months it has gone up by almost 22 plus 17 quite a bit of run this this is like nothing this is just the new one started but I think this this will definitely act as a I mean it has clearly broken its downward sloping trend line so let's see uh how this stock gains momentum even if you see the volumes are also pretty high as compared to the previous months right so all in all technically also this one looks pretty good"

"alyes okay Cup and a handle formation okay I'll share my screen so if you see here uh okay let me just pull up the monthly chart first so that I can show you the overall trend also okay last few months now if you see first let me just pull out the long-term Trend so if you see the long-term Trend right so it has touched year one twice third fourth time fifth time sixth time seventh time 8 9 10 11 this was a clear cut downward sloping Trend here first time it came outside that downward sloping Trend look at the volumes amazing volumes wow just looking like a wow if you compare it with all these previous months it's a sharp increase in volumes even if you see this month's volume it is it has already surpassed November and October volumes nice interesting uh out of its downward sloping Trend volumes look good have a look at macd about to cross over RSI on a monthly chart at 53 pretty much comfortable position if I were to go to a daily chart now you can see here a cup and a handle formation being formed here okay it has broken out and again if you see here from one to if I were to clone this immediate pretty much close to uh the cup and handle Target okay"

"okay okay so now if you see here it is almost like a double bottom formation here at this level so I can say it broke I mean it broke this took a support Second Time Took a support broke again tried to move up from here took a resistance came down took a resistance came down took a resistance came down one more time and one more time and one more time and one more time and finally it has broken out it has broken out it it broke out it took a retest so this was the month of November when it broke out it has given a retest and now it is bouncing uh again which sort of formation is this as I mentioned again double bottom formation at the end of a downward trend is much much more powerful but this is still in a sideways Trend and plus it's like a monthly time frame right so it has been consolidating since December 20 so that's a long time so as per the double bottom formation how do you uh proceed typically you check the length and you clone this length and then you put this length at the neckline okay everything all of these sorts I've discussed in my course on technical analysis"

"weekly yes absolutely very well identified I'll share my screen so here you can see um this is the top point this is these are the bottoms and from here here to here B Rajesh my only concern is that it has not yet broken out and in fact at the top it has properly come back in range I would want this stock to break out from that upper cloth and if it if it does then you know what the drill is for the upper FL for the up flag pattern right so I would want it to break break above these level of 1131 with strong volume sustain and then I would be much more comfortable entering that stock right so good observation it is a flag and pole but not yet broken out from the flag and pole pattern"

"IRCTC flag and pole break out above 900 on daily which is was a key resistance on a monthly it's a bit tricky exactly exactly so um in fact one minute quickly share why is my net going slow right now I'll share my screen till then okay that's IRCTC look at the monthly chart now so many drawings from me wait wait keep on analyzing stocks so here you can see it broke out again so resistance here 1 2 3 4 and finally you can see here five six seven times still this range is pretty tricky for me till it crosses 915 I'll not be fully convinced because it has seen a resistance multiple times at this level so I want to wait and watch for IRCTC till it crosses Above This level with good volumes and sustains okay then it'll be fun watching at IRCTC"

"I definitely feel that uh you know it's been a long time since this entire sector has underperformed and it is absolutely time that this sector now starts performing as a whole not as a stock specific thing but I mean enough enough of under performance is what everyone is saying for speciality chemical stocks and in fact if you have been on my which one was that I think previous quarterly Zoom meeting for the second quarter so basically September quarter Zoom meeting I had taken a separate discussion on speciality chemical stocks or speciality chemical sector as a whole is what we had discussed and the same Zoom meeting was uploaded even for the Pro investors who have taken the membership on normal YouTube and that is where I had discussed a lot of con calls of different Pharma companies sorry of different specialty chemical companies where the management was talking about how they believe that overall how entire 24 or maybe we can say H2 of FY 25 so calendar year 24 second half or if I'm talking about financial year second half of 2425 so we call that as Q3 h425 Q4 h525 or H2 F525 okay in simple words starting September next year there were a lot of management commentaries which mentioned that we do see for specialty chemical sector and AR Industries being a part of that I feel that yes it it may all all Specialty Chemicals right including Earth Industries may start performing in the next Financial year"

"if you want to time it a little bit and if history repeats then maybe you would want to wait for the month of January February but the point that I'm trying to tell you here is that there is a possibility that Nifty may not perform in Jan or FB okay it might cool off a little bit and that is a reason why also I know the thumbnail was a little bit more fancy that is the rally over and whatnot rally is not over rally is still very much intact that I'll show you with the help of technicals okay but can there be a slight pause possibility number one yes uh there could be a time wise correction time pass consolidation point or a small price wise correction as well so little bit here and there sideways is possible"

"so here it can do some sort of time pass and then maybe it can go for the next move okay uh is is the basic Trend intact yes super trend is very much intact it will be intact till 21,200 almost and today where did we close we closed at 21658 okay so no tension 200 demma is way lower no need to even talk about that 50 demma is also pretty much lower n DEA excuse me cuffing a lot today 9 Dema is around 21,000 I'll just speak in a little bit low voice 9 Dema is around 21580 levels so still comfortably above that so no need to worry about the 200 day or the 50-day or the 9 day moving average neither to worry about the super Trend everything is positive the trend is also intact if you want to check the option chain data so here I pulled out the 11th Jan option chain data and if you see here highest open interest directly is at 20 2,000 okay and if you check on the lower side it is 21,500 which is 75826 so typically in the 500 points range the open interest will be highest but if you see here at 21, 650 also so many people are already in the money 21 21,600 also so many people are already in the money so you can imagine if 21,700 is also taken out out then we can see a sharp 200 points rally is what I feel if 21,700 is taken out okay because all these people would want to that will be then forced to unwind their positions and that could be possible is what I'm saying based on option chain okay a lot of calls uh a lot of open interest is also being added up here but if you if you ask 65,000 55,000 59,000 all these if you can see here 65,000 75,000 56 so I think put side the support side is much more stronger as compared to the resistances so I believe that I mean if if you're talking about the extreme year term minor price-wise time wise correction possible but other than that I believe that yes overall trend is intact I'm repeating overall trend seems to be intact no problem with the overall trend small correction here and there there cannot be denied okay so that was it about the technical analysis data"