Nifty at 22000 | What next? | CA Rachana Ranade

"Now, if you look here first I've just drawn few lines so that you know we can just quickly go through the discussion you can see this is a very clear resistance that we have been seeing for HDFC Bank 1, 2, 3, 4 this stock has not really performed well this was the level in October 21 almost 1,700 Something level was October 21 and today also we are a shade below that level so the the stock has been seeing a big resistance once just once it tried to break above that but immediately it saw sharp selling and it came down rapidly."

"Now if you look at the daily chart for this now I'm just going to zoom out a little bit now if you can see this it's kind of forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern here kind of okay so if now here if tomorrow we can see a big candle then it will be fun to watch because this is a heavyweight champion in Nifty so we'll be really interested to we'll be really interested to see how the results come out for HDFC bank tomorrow and if they are good then we can see some nice atishbazi in Nifty as well."

"And right now again it is at that same crucial level right now so again how does the result come out on this Saturday will decide its move whether it takes a resistance and falls or whether it breaks out of the resistance and moves higher than the all-time highs"

"and right now this is where it is trading so will be again really interesting to watch how Wipro moves ahead. But we have talked about Infosys, we have talked about Wipro. Let's talk about Nifty IT index as a whole where does it stand? Now if you see here even though Nifty has given a breakout even though Nifty has at an all-time high this is the all-time high for Nifty IT. I'll just adjust it I've not put the magnet on it's okay so uh here you can see this is where the Nifty IT high is placed and we are not we have not yet crossed that. Now if you look at Fibonacci I'm just going to draw it from here all okay from here to a lower level okay then you'll be able to see that we have already crossed the 78.6% retracement and ideally if that be so it should be able to reach the all-time highs, one more point I would want to tell you that if you see here this was the immediate previous high, right so if you can see this I'm just going to mark this quickly this was the immediate previous High and this was actually taken out with a gap up opening again shows more strength in the index per se okay so what did we see just to wrap up the discussion Infosys was looking bullish but it's at a crucial level same was the case with Wipro as well but what can take the index higher ideal index has to go higher and if index has to go higher some components of that which are strong components like Infosys, TCS, Wipro they have to take the it index stronger and ideally that is the reason why I'm still pretty much bullish on this IT space. Now this is what has led the rally till now question is that what next and for that we have to understand some key results whether they're going to come up in the immediate coming days and I'm want to focus on two main results one result is of HDFC bank which is scheduled tomorrow, that is 16th January 24 and one result is of ICICI bank which is planned over the weekend. So now let's have a look at the chart of HDFC bank. Now if you look here first I've just drawn few lines so that you know we can just quickly go through the discussion you can see this is a very clear resistance that we have been seeing for HDFC Bank 1, 2, 3, 4 this stock has not really performed well this was the level in October 21 almost 1,700 Something level was October 21 and today also we are a shade below that level so the the stock has been seeing a big resistance once just once it tried to break above that but immediately it saw sharp selling and it came down rapidly. Now even if I were to look at the daily chart for this now I'm just going to zoom out a little bit now if you can see this it's kind of forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern here kind of okay so if now here if tomorrow we can see a big candle then it will be fun to watch because this is a heavyweight champion in Nifty so we'll be really interested to we'll be really interested to see how the results come out for HDFC bank tomorrow and if they are good then we can see some nice atishbazi in Nifty as well. So this was about HDFC Bank. let's quickly move to ICICI Bank as well and try and understand that how it is performing? So again here you can see same point resistance tried to go here again resistance at multiple points and it is so it it broke out of that saw a retest in fact went below that and right now again it is at that same crucial level right now so again how does the result come out on this Saturday will decide its move whether it takes a resistance and falls or whether it breaks out of the resistance and moves higher than the all-time highs again understand HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank both are again heavyweight champions they do have the capacity to take Nifty higher. One More bank which uh to the best of my knowledge uh the result date exact result date is yet to be out so uh we'll just quickly understand how this stock has performed. We'll take a little bit uh you know broader view we'll just zoom out quite a bit so that you'll understand the point that I'm trying to make okay o have a look at this we have zoomed out quite a bit on SBI chart this is back in 2011 when the stock was around 350 levels okay, from this level in 2011 again it tried to reach this level in 2015 failed came back again it tried to go beyond that in 2017 failed, came back again tried to go above that in 19 failed came back here you can see now I'm going to zoom this in now this is 2021 so I hope you are understanding how crucial this level of 350 is for SBI with a big green candle 39% of course on a weekly candle it broke out again saw a retest but this time it never looked back and it went up what has so 350 rock solid support is what I can say now but what could be the next one then it saw a resistance here somewhere around 54 levels 1, 2 try to Reacher 3,4, 5, 6,7 whatever times then you can see here went up again took some support here again tried to went up go up again took a support here so this is the second solid support at 550 levels but here you can also see now at an upper end it has taken a resistance here around 630 levels 1, 2, 3, 4 almost 5, 6, 7 here broke out and it is at a retest level right now. So if everyone is bullish about the PSU theme SBI will very very will be you know one of the stocks in focus in that case so this is purely based on technical analysis. I'm not saying it's a buy or sell I'm just trying to tell you what are the levels that can be checked out for so I hope you have understood that SBI be it HDFC be it ICICI be it even uh you know all these three banking stocks HDFC, ICICI, SBI all are to be watched out really closely because these could be the stocks that could push the Nifty to the next big level okay."

"this is the all-time high for Nifty IT. I'll just adjust it I've not put the magnet on it's okay so uh here you can see this is where the Nifty IT high is placed and we are not we have not yet crossed that. Now if you look at Fibonacci I'm just going to draw it from here all okay from here to a lower level okay then you'll be able to see that we have already crossed the 78.6% retracement and ideally if that be so it should be able to reach the all-time highs"

"this was the immediate previous high, right so if you can see this I'm just going to mark this quickly this was the immediate previous High and this was actually taken out with a gap up opening again shows more strength in the index per se"

"ideally that is the reason why I'm still pretty much bullish on this IT space."

"and ideally that is the reason why I'm still pretty much bullish on this IT space. Now this is what has led the rally till now question is that what next and for that we have to understand some key results whether they're going to come up in the immediate coming days and I'm want to focus on two main results one result is of HDFC bank which is scheduled tomorrow, that is 16th January 24 and one result is of ICICI bank which is planned over the weekend."

"Now if you see here right now um Nifty right now as I shoot the video which is 15 Jan somewhere around 215 Nifty is at around 22,067 and this is the option chain for this Thursday and you can see here 1 lakh 1,000 is the call options data at 22,000 mark. Even if you see 22,050, 52,000 so a lot of action is happening here even at 22,100 there is a lot of resistance which is being built here but if the market still keeps on going higher you can imagine the number of people which can get trapped here at 22,000 level and 22,100 level so there could be chances that Nifty can zoom up to 22,200 levels also"

"Now if you see here right now a weekly level we are at the R1 so again a crucial point but if I check out on the daily basis and if I I were to zoom this in you can see here that the next resistance is at 22,238 and that is a reason why I was talking about a similar level of 22,200."

"Let's see if it keeps on giving support if the results that come out in this week specifically related to Banks if they give a good support to Nifty it may take Nifty higher to 22,200 levels if the results are bad then maybe this could be the high and we may see some sort of you know pullback from Nifty."