Is The Worst Over? | CA Rachana Ranade

"so everyone should understand okay I hope this part is absolutely clear and from here now we have to understand some additional data point as well okay if you have seen one of my previous videos I had shared about how markets have performed in years of election I had done a recent video wherein I had talked about during election years What scenario can be see in the market so again I'm sharing the entire screen till I share the screen until if you have loved the video till now definitely please consider smashing the like button okay so now let me just remove this and let me take you to a monthly candle okay everyone pay attention again very important Point coming up okay we have to go back to 2019 which was an election year uh okay so this is January alt H oh sorry Control Alt V okay this is January 2 let's take to December okay I'm going to zoom in what happened during election year 2019 because let's try and analyze this and based on this we'll try and see what could happen in 2024 now if you see Jan F both were week in March the markets had actually rallied quite a bit the rally continued in April the rally continued in May and post election it did see a good correction now when did the correction start in the month of June so June July August were the three months of Correction and after which again back to back September October November December oer oer in the air okay if the same pattern were to be followed in fact what has happened is just March has not behaved like this janary closed in red Feb same we closed in March is not doing that great but still I can say last that's next of course next week we have a lot of holidays I think we have Duran holiday we have 28th also I think there's a holiday shivaji mahaj jti we also have a holiday on Friday I guess oh my God very few trading sessions in the next week so we are barely left with any days now uh so not sure whether we'll get such a big green candle in the month of March or not uh but all said and done if 2019 would be followed then ideally before election markets have ried okay post election markets have seen some sort of Correction phase and after which again it has spiked up this is what we have seen back in 2019"

"so everyone should understand okay I hope this part is absolutely clear and from here now we have to understand some additional data point as well okay if you have seen one of my previous videos I had shared about how markets have performed in years of election I had done a recent video wherein I had talked about during election years What scenario can be see in the market so again I'm sharing the entire screen till I share the screen until if you have loved the video till now definitely please consider smashing the like button okay so now let me just remove this and let me take you to a monthly candle okay everyone pay attention again very important Point coming up okay we have to go back to 2019 which was an election year uh okay so this is January alt H oh sorry Control Alt V okay this is January 2 let's take to December okay I'm going to zoom in what happened during election year 2019 because let's try and analyze this and based on this we'll try and see what could happen in 2024 now if you see Jan F both were week in March the markets had actually rallied quite a bit the rally continued in April the rally continued in May and post election it did see a good correction now when did the correction start in the month of June so June July August were the three months of Correction and after which again back to back September October November December oer oer in the air okay if the same pattern were to be followed in fact what has happened is just March has not behaved like this janary closed in red Feb same we closed in March is not doing that great but still I can say last that's next of course next week we have a lot of holidays I think we have Duran holiday we have 28th also I think there's a holiday shivaji mahaj jti we also have a holiday on Friday I guess oh my God very few trading sessions in the next week so we are barely left with any days now uh so not sure whether we'll get such a big green candle in the month of March or not uh but all said and done if 2019 would be followed then ideally before election markets have ried okay post election markets have seen some sort of Correction phase and after which again it has spiked up this is what we have seen back in 2019"

"I see one name very commonly written in the chats one is H Hindustan Aeronautics limited many people have also commented on PFC and Rec yes re is again one fundamentally strong stock I believe Geo Finance is also one stock which I have talked about in detail for my Pro investor members just explaining the business model absolutely in detail"

"one is Tata Motors that I have discussed absolutely in depth again Shas has written three in one shot out of four that I discussed right now H Geo Finance Tata Motors I also talked about re and here I can see the other one which is bti AEL has been one of my favorites"

"I also talked about re and here I can see the other one which is bti AEL has been one of my favorites see all these are Nob brainer stocks okay but just to give you one one minute one one minute discuss on this bti AEL no need to for me to even tell 140 CR janata and bhel of course you need to understand the business model in detail to understand why second Tata Motors I have discussed so much in detail in my Pro investor membership about how the jlr story is like a turnaround how that segment is becoming profitable"

"Geo Finance are the business has also has not even properly started Once it starts running at at its true potential please please try and understand the business model of Finance how much capacity how much capability they have you you will not you not even it's it's beyond imagination right if you talk about R just read how our government is right now focusing on renewable and instead of going I always believe in this instead of trying to find out players are who are manufacturing renewable is that first they need money for that who's going to dispers R Ira PFC I've talked about this so many times on my channel right so don't I know don't just blindly go into it"

"if the rates are reduced in the economy okay if rates are reduced in the economy then lending rates will reduce if lending rates reduce your loans are going to become cheaper right if loans will become cheaper let us say a vehicle loan becomes cheaper possibility that more and more cars are sold and if more and more cars are sold obviously a company like tataa Motors can get benefited out of it"

"now this is this is nowhere close to a stock type this is common sense if you understand this how interest rates impacts a stock like Tata Motors this is understanding a concept and that is what I try to do in all my courses right suban submania G says all your courses are very good and explained very well thanks thanks a lot for that soit is saying use this coupon code last week nice so good to see that people are wanting to learn more and more this is what you know we we have been trying to do uh uh that you know with easy explanation everyone should get a confidence okay even I will tell you any content creator is talking about any stock that will not give you confidence but if you do your own analysis that level of confidence that you're going to see that's going to be in Tamil what do we say where a level Next Level okay so please please please do your own analysis study live stream is the coupon code you can use this Puja G today R is on fire please paste link of courses okay"

"see whenever the rates go down obviously investors feel that rather than parking our money in such Securities where the rates have reduced why not use our money to invest in some Emerging Markets okay we have discussed about this many times but this is just a quick revision whenever rates are going to reduce the investors may take a decision that rather than investing in such Securities where the rates are low instead of investing in that let me put my money into Emerging Markets like India obviously and that is how if more money starts flowing into Indian stock market more demand more demand will lead to increase in prices"

"bank of Japan for the first time they are going to move towards kind of inflationary measures Japan has been in a deflationary economy for a long time and this is the first time that Banks board set a new policy rate range between 0% and 0.1% shifting from a negative. 1% of course shortterm interest rate is what I'm talking about so this is for the first time that Japanese economy may actually see some you know a different phase in its life"

"all in all all in all be it small caps be it midcaps be it Nifty be it Bank Nifty okay we have to understand that majority of the times during election years the lows have been made in the in these months janf March if history of these election years were to repeat we may expect that markets may not tumble down from here to a great extent and that is what is making me feel really really happy okay number one so I hope you're understanding this what I did was just analyzing election year data 2004 9 14 19 all four all four years we did understand that first J to March quarter has been the lowest and we are trying to just extrapolate this to 2024 election year"

"so typically we do follow uh RBI will follow fed uh decisions and yes there are great chances that even our interest rates will start falling again if that be so that is the best time because see same thing now there are two investment opportunities if one investment opportunities like investing in government securities if the interest rates if the yields drop then obviously one type of Market which is favored the most that is stock market"

"so what I feel right now as an investor I'm going to tell you my stand right now so very important next one minute as an investor what is my stand what could be the possible downside is what I have to understand okay because if my analysis goes WR wrong that from I'm expecting that worst is almost over I'm not saying it is over okay because we never know there could be some surprises but is almost over is what I feel one jutka if we can see I've told you the level I shared my screen I've shown you technical analysis 21,500 is what I feel could be the lowest point okay around that once 215 21500 is tested I don't think it should should go below that and if I know this mentally if I'm me mentally prepared for a 400 500 points downside I'm okay with that I think I should really start putting money into those stocks which I feel are promising"