When will FIIs Return? | Impact of US Tariffs on Stock Market | CA Rachana Ranade

"based on technical analysis rupee may not slide below I mean Beyond 90 very easily ideally it should find its range between 85 to 90 is what I understand"

"there are great chances that the Fed may not reduce the Fed fund rate or may not reduce interest rates immediately there are great chances that it will remain stable for a few more months"

"if I were to understand what is the YoY growth on a Q3 basis Q3 YoY then have a look at we'll check it on screener okay have a look at this ... median of 50 companies sales grew at only 8% right now Q3 I'm talking about and profits grew only at barely 6 and a half% is this number below the expectation answer is 100% yes this is below expectation correct because like I told you the expectation generally from Indian markets is 11 to 12% earning growth and we barely grew at 6 and a half%"

"second thing that the government did recently everyone knows about that is the tax rate benefit that was given in the budget up to 12 lakh Zero everyone knows about that ... and the third thing is about lowering of repo rates and again I'm sure you have also you also know about this you can also see the article on the screen right now wherein everyone know 25 basis points a rate cut has been already announced and there might be few more rate cuts which are lined up as well So with all these three things which three things open market operation by RBI tax rate cuts by the government and also lowering of the repo rate by RBI all these things will lead to an overall boost in the consumption"

"I believe they may not impose maddening tariffs and plus uh the friends are meeting in USA right now uh so let's see what the upcoming meeting of Modiji and Trump is I mean what what are the outcomes of that it'll be interesting to watch so if they're able to you know come to good terms on not increasing tariffs by a high Point it'll be definitely favorable for us"

"let's imagine a scenario that Q4 numbers the upcoming Q4 numbers are a shade better as compared to Q2 and Q3 Q1 FY 26 numbers are better than that and here they go close to a 12% or 13 % growth in uh EPS in the down in in the bottom line if that be so would FIIs be happy yes because the growth would be good here ... if you ask me will FIIs has return answer is yass they can't stay away from the Indian markets forever it is a matter of time we have to show that we can grow we will have to grow and if that be so then FIIs will return and the bullish sentiment in the market will also return"

"USA has had three rate Cuts since then okay like we had just the First Rate cut right now that only 25 basis points till now US has Cut Rate by 100 basis points"

"if the yields were to increase then there is a chance that the correction May continue in our markets"

"considering all these points there are great chances that the Fed may not reduce the Fed fund rate or may not reduce interest rates immediately there are great chances that it will remain stable for a few more months"

"typically earnings are expected to grow at 11 to 12% if the valuations are to be justified but if I were to understand what is the YoY growth on a Q3 basis Q3 YoY then have a look at we'll check it on screener okay have a look at this"

"median of 50 companies sales grew at only 8% right now Q3 I'm talking about and profits grew only at barely 6 and a half%"

"and when such things come up then valuation comes more into Limelight at this this level of earnings this sort of valuation cannot be justified"

"RBI has already announced and has already undertaken the open market operations currently you can see already 40,000 Crore worth open market operation has been done"

"with all these three things which three things open market operation by RBI tax rate cuts by the government and also lowering of the repo rate by RBI all these things will lead to an overall boost in the consumption"

"typically it has been found in the past it has been observed in the past that at least two three rate Cuts minimum have to take place so that the actual impact is visible"

"personally feel based on technical analysis rupee may not slide below I mean Beyond 90 very easily ideally it should find its range between 85 to 90 is what I understand"

"if US imposes tariffs then for a company for a country like China who is exporting Goods their exports become expensive and if and if they want to counter that what China does is that they devalue their currency"

"I believe they may not impose maddening tariffs and plus uh the friends are meeting in USA right now so let's see what the upcoming meeting of Modiji and Trump is I mean what what are the outcomes of that"

"let's imagine a scenario that Q4 numbers the upcoming Q4 numbers are a shade better as compared to Q2 and Q3 Q1 FY 26 numbers are better than that and here they go close to a 12% or 13 % growth in uh EPS in the down in in the bottom line if that be so would FIIs be happy yes because the growth would be good here"

"if you ask me will FIIs has return answer is yass they can't stay away from the Indian markets forever it is a matter of time we have to show that we can grow we will have to grow and if that be so then FIIs will return and the bullish sentiment in the market will also return"