ilmscore | The 25% ‘Trump Recession’ Has Started - What You Must Know

The 25% ‘Trump Recession’ Has Started - What You Must Know

Published: 2025-04-02
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 5
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 2
Pending: 3
Prediction
Topic
Status
First quarter GDP fell to 0.3%, with future GDP estimates at -2.8%.
"First quarter GDP has already fallen to just.3%. Estimates for future GDP come in at -2.8%."
GDP
Incorrect
Outside of localized markets, housing prices are unlikely to fall significantly, as they have only declined in 7 out of 50 years in the past 50 years, with most of those declines concentrated around the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, which is no longer a concern.
"And outside of certain local markets, the most likely outcome is really more of the same. In fact, as Ben Carlson points out, home prices have only ever fallen for 7 years out of 50 in total, with five of those years being isolated to the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, of which isn't a concern anymore."
HG
Pending
Core Logic predicts a 3.6% year-over-year increase in home prices, Zillow forecasts a 6% increase, and Redfin projects a 4% return, attributing this to the significant purchasing power of the top 1%.
"Core Logic believes that home prices will increase another 3.6% year-over-year. Zillow thinks that we'll see a 6% increase and Redfin forecasts a 4% return, especially since the top 1% have the wealth to buy 99% of homes."
HG
Pending
Recession odds doubled to 50% likelihood in 2025.
"Over the last few days, the odds of a recession have officially doubled, going as high as a 50% likelihood of happening in 2025."
Recession Likelihood
Incorrect
Tariffs are viewed as a long-term negotiation strategy, expected to cause short-term market volatility.
"I believe tariffs have become a very long-term negotiation strategy and short-term it's absolutely going to be extremely volatile."
Tariffs as Negotiation Strategy
Pending