Predictions from this Video

Total: 3
Correct: 2
Incorrect: 1
Pending: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
There is less than a 1% chance that Donald Trump will fire Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026.
"To me, I'd put the chance of him actually firing Jerome Powell at less than 1% since, I mean, let's be real, anything can happen."
Jerome Powell Firing Probability
Correct
There is a 19% chance that Donald Trump will pressure Jerome Powell into lowering interest rates, despite Powell's reluctance, before Powell's term ends in May 2026.
"Then from there, I'd give it maybe a 19% chance of him pressuring Jerome Powell enough so that he eventually complies and lowers interest rates even though he doesn't want to."
Jerome Powell Rate Cut Probability
Incorrect
There is an 80% chance that Jerome Powell's tenure will continue without extraordinary events (like being fired or pressured into lowering rates) before his term ends in May 2026.
"And then I'd give it about an 80% chance that nothing really happens out of the ordinary."
Jerome Powell Tenure Stability Probability
Correct