ilmscore | Selling Everything (How To Invest In A Recession)

Selling Everything (How To Invest In A Recession)

Predictions from this Video

Total: 7
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 7
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
A recession is highly probable given inflation rates above 5%, a historical pattern observed over the last 70 years.
"any time we've had an inflation reading of above five percent we have always followed that with the recession every single time in the last 70 years other than once and right now our inflation is closer to six and a half percent if not seven percent last year"
Recession Prediction
Pending
Historically, 16 out of 30 recessions (from 1869-2018) resulted in positive stock market returns, averaging 9.8% and lasting about 16 months.
"16 of them had a positive stock market return from when they started to when they finished the positive stock market recessions lasted on average 16 months and they returned anywhere between 0.7 to as high as 38.1 percent that's the spectrum with an average return of 9.8"
Stock Market Performance in Recessions
Pending
There is virtually no correlation between GDP growth and stock market performance during recessions.
"the correlation between the gdp and the stock market to be at negative 0.05 which is basically zero there's no correlation between gdp growth and the stock market"
Stock Market Performance in Recessions
Pending
In recessions with negative stock market returns, the average duration was 18 months with an average loss of 14.2%.
"Of the 14 recessions that had a negative stock market return those lasted on average 18 months with an average return of negative 14.2 percent"
Stock Market Performance in Recessions
Pending
The Federal Reserve will struggle to meaningfully increase interest rates (e.g., to 3-5%) to combat inflation, as current proposed increases (0.25-0.5%) are insufficient against a 7% inflation rate.
"they're gonna have trouble raising the interest rate in any meaningful way meaningful way meaning like a three percent five percent tight sure because if inflation is expected to be seven percent this month how is it possible that point two five percent or even a half a percent increase is gonna do anything to fight inflation"
Interest Rate Hikes
Pending
Small and mid-cap stocks are trading at unsustainably low forward P/E ratios.
"if you look at small caps and mid caps they're trading unsustainably low on on a forward p basis"
Stock Valuation
Pending
Companies with market caps under $10 billion are significantly undervalued.
"smaller companies are grossly undervalued yes smaller companies and basically almost anything under 10 billion for the most part many of those companies are very undervalued right now"
Stock Valuation
Pending