Published: 2022-03-07
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Predictions from this Video
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Prediction
Topic
Status
The speaker predicts that inflation will worsen.
"I really do believe that inflation is only going to get worse"
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The speaker believes inflation will be higher than Goldman Sachs' estimate of 3.7% by the end of the year.
"Goldman Sachs for example is saying that we will have closer to 3.7 percent inflation if all goes well I think we'll see a higher inflation number because I don't think all is going well"
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The speaker believes inflation will worsen due to events in Europe.
"I really do believe that inflation is only going to get worse."
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The speaker believes that quarter-percent interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve are insufficient to combat current inflation rates.
"we have to slowly increase the interest rate at a quarter percent increase otherwise we risk tipping to the other side and that's not what we want but the truth is increasing the interest rate by a quarter percent is not enough to fight a seven and a half percent rate of inflation it's not even close"
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The speaker predicts US inflation will exceed Goldman Sachs' forecast of 3.7% for the year.
"Goldman Sachs for example is saying that we will have closer to 3.7 percent inflation if all goes well I think we'll see a higher inflation number because I don't think all is going well"
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Historical data suggests that home values can increase even when interest rates rise.
"Economist Robert Schiller posted this super interesting chart which shows that after 1920 home values have still gone up despite the fact that interest rates have also sometimes gone up"
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Due to the Federal Reserve's gradual interest rate increases, it may take a considerable amount of time, or never happen, for home values to decrease.
"because our fed wants to increase the rates in only a quarter percent increases that means that it could take a really long time for home values to go down if ever at all"
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The speaker believes interest rates will trend towards zero over the long term, mitigating the risk of an adjustable-rate mortgage.
"I don't think it's a huge risk though because interest rates Trend toward zero over a long period of time"
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The speaker believes the Federal Reserve's quarter-point interest rate hikes are insufficient to combat current inflation levels.
"we have to slowly increase the interest rate at a quarter percent increase otherwise we risk tipping to the other side and that's not what we want but the truth is increasing the interest rate by a quarter percent is not enough to fight a seven and a half percent rate of inflation"
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The speaker predicts that inflation will worsen due to events in Europe.
"I really do believe that inflation is only going to get worse"
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The speaker predicts that ongoing conflicts will exacerbate supply chain issues for semiconductors and microchips, impacting tech and auto industries.
"War makes the supply chain problems potentially worse for a little bit longer this is because when it comes to semiconductors and microchips and all the stuff that car makers and tech companies need to make stuff with it's the military that takes priority in times of Crisis which makes sense but that also means that supply chain problems could be worse for a little bit longer"
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The Federal Reserve aims to reduce inflation to 2% by the end of the year.
"The Federal Reserve have a goal to get inflation down to two percent by the end of the year"
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Sanctioning Russia and encouraging alternative payment systems could decrease global demand for the US dollar, leading to further inflation.
"we want to choke their financial support which makes sense why but it also comes at the cost of a weaker dollar and here's how if we force Russia to find an alternative payment system it also forces its trading partners countries like China with a huge economy to also find alternative Payment Systems maybe systems like their cips right but that means there's going to be less Global demand for dollars which means if there's less Global demand there's going to be less absorption when we print more and inflate the supply to pay for our own debt"
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Goldman Sachs forecasts inflation to be around 3.7% if conditions are favorable.
"Goldman Sachs for example is saying that we will have closer to 3.7 percent inflation if all goes well"
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The speaker believes inflation is not transitory and accepts Goldman Sachs' year-end inflation estimate of 3.7% as a baseline.
"I don't think inflation is transitory Now let's just take Goldman Sachs's estimate at face value that inflation will be 3.7 at the end of this year"
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The speaker believes inflation will exceed Goldman Sachs' forecast due to the war in Europe, which is an inflationary pressure.
"I think we'll see a higher inflation number because I don't think all is going well for example we have the war in Europe Russia and Ukraine war is an inflationary pressure"
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Historical data suggests home values can increase even when interest rates rise.
"after 1920 home values have still gone up despite the fact that interest rates have also sometimes gone up"
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Home values can take approximately three years to decline after interest rates start to rise, based on historical patterns.
"any time interest rates went down by one percent home values went up by five percent but it also took them roughly three years to get to that point and we kind of saw this play out in 2004 when the FED stepped in started to increase the rates but it also took roughly until 2007 for home values to go down"
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The Federal Reserve will likely increase interest rates slowly by 0.25% to avoid negative economic consequences.
"we have to slowly increase the interest rate at a quarter percent increase otherwise we risk tipping to the other side"
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It is possible to make a strong offer on real estate by demonstrating the ability to secure financing as if it were a cash offer, even if that's not the actual intention.
"if you could show the money that you could afford it that you could apply as a cash offer even if you have no intention of paying cash"
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Sellers should be aware that dual agents representing both buyer and seller might have less incentive to secure the highest offer for the seller due to commission splitting.
"the seller's listing agent is what's called a double agent which means they have less of an incentive to accept my offer they represent both the Buy buyer and the seller they get the full commission check but going with my offer meant splitting it with my real estate agent"
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A 0.25% interest rate hike is insufficient to combat the current 7.5% inflation rate.
"increasing the interest rate by a quarter percent is not enough to fight a seven and a half percent rate of inflation it's not even close"
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The speaker expresses surprise that a loan was approved for a newly formed LLC, which typically lacks the required income history for such loans.
"they got approved on a loan for a two-day old LLC which doesn't make sense because they don't have two years of proof of income and Banks don't like to lend to llc's"
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The war in Europe could exacerbate supply chain issues for a longer period.
"War makes the supply chain problems potentially worse for a little bit longer"
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Excluding Russia from SWIFT will likely result in a weaker US dollar.
"kicking Russia out of Swift... it also comes at the cost of a weaker dollar"
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The speaker believes inflation is not temporary.
"I don't think inflation is transitory"
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Goldman Sachs projects inflation to be 3.7% by the end of the year.
"Goldman Sachs' estimate... inflation will be 3.7 at the end of this year"
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There is a long-standing opinion that the real estate market is overvalued.
"people have been saying that real estate is overvalued for a long time now"
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Historical data suggests home values can increase even when interest rates rise, citing evidence from after 1920.
"Economist Robert Schiller posted this super interesting chart which shows that after 1920 home values have still gone up despite the fact that interest rates have also sometimes gone up"
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The combination of Millennials entering the housing market and low inventory could drive up home values.
"Millennials are coming of age and they need to buy a house to start a family and there's low inventory"
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A study indicates that a 1% decrease in interest rates leads to a 5% increase in home values over approximately three years.
"Bank for international settlements saw that any time interest rates went down by one percent home values went up by five percent but it also took them roughly three years to get to that point"
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The 2004 interest rate increases by the Fed did not immediately lead to a drop in home values, with declines only occurring around 2007.
"we kind of saw this play out in 2004 when the FED stepped in started to increase the rates but it also took roughly until 2007 for home values to go down"
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Gradual 0.25% interest rate hikes by the Fed suggest that a significant decrease in home values may take a very long time, if it happens at all.
"our fed wants to increase the rates in only a quarter percent increases that means that it could take a really long time for home values to go down if ever at all"
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The speaker's attempt to buy a house revealed that the property sold at the asking price, contrary to initial information.
"The house sold for exactly what I offered and not for over asking like what we were told"
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A listing agent acting as a double agent may have reduced incentive to accept the highest offer.
"the seller's listing agent is what's called a double agent which means they have less of an incentive to accept my offer"
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The speaker observed a buyer obtaining a loan approval for an LLC that was only two days old, which seems unusual given typical banking practices.
"the buyer created an LLC two days before the listing happened and they got approved on a loan for a two-day old LLC which doesn't make sense"
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The speaker believes real estate investment offers a favorable risk-reward ratio due to high demand, low supply, accessible cheap debt, and current high inflation.
"For Real Estate even though there's a risk and it could be inflated the risk versus reward ratio is worth it because of the high demand the low Supply because I had access to cheap debt and during a time of high inflation"
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