ilmscore | STOP INVESTING | Recession Ahead

STOP INVESTING | Recession Ahead

Published: 2022-03-14
Status: Available | Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 11
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 11
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Within the next 12 months, the probability of a recession is estimated to be between 35% and 70%.
"in the next 12 months the odds of a recession are predicted to be anywhere from a low of 35 percent from Banks like Goldman Sachs to a high of 70 percent from other independent sources"
Recession Odds
Pending
The inversion of the yield curve in August 2019 was followed by a recession.
"The last time the yield curve inverted was in August of 2019 and sure enough there was a recession"
Yield Curve Inversion
Pending
If real wage growth remains negative until the summer of the current year, the likelihood of a recession will significantly increase.
"if real wage growth is negative until the summer of this year the odds of a recession would increase substantially"
Real Wage Growth
Pending
Historically, when the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $104, a recession has followed, with occurrences noted in 1970, 1975, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2008, and potentially 2022.
"anytime the price of Brent crude oil goes up above 104 there has been a recession check this out this has been the case in 1970 1975 1980 1990 2000 2008 and again potentially in 2022"
Brent Crude Oil Price
Pending
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index reaching 67.2, its lowest point since 2011, aligns with the 10-year recession cycle.
"the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment study shows 67.2 will which is the lowest that it's been since around 2011 which almost perfectly lines up with that 10-year cycle when recessions happen"
Consumer Sentiment
Pending
The speaker estimates the odds of a recession within the next 12 months to be approximately 50%.
"in the next 12 months I estimate that the odds of a recession are about as good as a coin flip"
Recession Odds (Current Estimate)
Pending
Over the last 30 recessions, stock markets have shown both positive and negative performance, indicating that a recession does not definitively predict stock market outcomes.
"the last 30 recessions have produced 16 positive stock markets and 14 negative ones so a recession tells us nothing about stocks"
Recession Impact on Asset Classes
Pending
Recessions may not impact real estate values negatively due to persistent high demand and low supply, rendering them uninformative for future real estate trends.
"when it comes to real estate the game is completely changed because even if Ray go up home values may not go down because of the high demand and the low Supply so a recession tells us nothing about the future of real estate"
Recession Impact on Real Estate
Pending
Due to Bitcoin's limited history since 2009, recessions provide insufficient data to predict its future performance.
"when it comes to crypto that tells us nothing because Bitcoin has only been around since 2009 and there's not enough data"
Recession Impact on Crypto
Pending
The speaker identifies stagflation as a greater risk than a recession.
"the real risk is not a recession it's something called stagflation"
Stagflation Risk
Pending
Cash flow-producing assets, such as dividend stocks, are recommended as the best investments during stagflation.
"the best investments during stagflation are cash flow producing assets like dividend stocks"
Best Investments During Stagflation
Pending