ilmscore | The Layoffs Have Started | Recession Warning

The Layoffs Have Started | Recession Warning

Predictions from this Video

Total: 13
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 13
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Federal Reserve began Quantitative Tightening on June 1st, selling $45 billion in assets monthly ($30 billion Treasuries, $15 billion MBS). Starting in September, this will double to $95 billion monthly ($60 billion Treasuries, $35 billion MBS).
"Quantitative tightening process which just started this month on june 1st now this is when we will start slowly selling 45 billion dollars a month worth of assets 30 billion toward treasury bonds and 15 billion toward those mortgage-backed securities or mbs's and after three months of selling at this rate starting in september we're going to double to 95 billion a month 60 billion in treasury bonds and 35 billion in those mbs's"
Quantitative Tightening
Pending
The Quantitative Tightening process is estimated to increase the federal fund rate by 0.25% to 1.25%.
"this effect of selling will increase the interest rate aka the federal fund rate by anywhere between a quarter percent to 1.25"
Federal Fund Rate Increase
Pending
The US dollar is predicted to continue strengthening later in the year.
"and right now our dollar is very strong and it's going to get stronger later this year"
US Dollar Strength
Pending
Historically, the stock market has averaged a 9.95% annual return between 1926 and 2022.
"between the years 1926 and 2022 the stock market averaged 9.95 per year"
Stock Market Returns (Long-Term)
Pending
Following a market drop of 20% or more, cumulative returns averaged 69.9% over the subsequent five years.
"the cumulative returns five years after the market dropped 20 or more on average was 69.9 percent"
Stock Market Recovery after Downturns
Pending
In historical bear markets (20%+ drops), the average loss was 34.8%, with the market bottom reached in 264 trading days and recovery taking 567 trading days.
"on average the stock market lost 34.8 percent so that's what we can expect the amount of time it took for people to reach the bottom of the market was 264 trading days the amount of time it took to recover from that bottom was exactly 567 trading days"
Bear Market Losses and Recovery Time
Pending
US jobless claims decreased by 11,000 last week, reaching 200,000.
"last week u.s jobless claims went down by 11 000 down to 200 000"
Jobless Claims
Pending
US jobless claims reached a 54-year low in March of the current year.
"in march of this year we hit a 54-year low in jobless claims"
Jobless Claims (Historical Low)
Pending
Quantitative tightening will begin by selling $45 billion in assets monthly ($30B treasuries, $15B MBS), doubling to $95 billion monthly ($60B treasuries, $35B MBS) starting in September.
"this qt quantitative tightening process which just started this month on june 1st now this is when we will start slowly selling 45 billion dollars a month worth of assets 30 billion toward treasury bonds and 15 billion toward those mortgage-backed securities or mbs's and after three months of selling at this rate starting in september we're going to double to 95 billion a month 60 billion in treasury bonds and 35 billion in those mbs's"
Quantitative Tightening
Pending
The quantitative tightening process is expected to increase the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 1.25%.
"this effect of selling will increase the interest rate aka the federal fund rate by anywhere between a quarter percent to 1.25"
Interest Rates
Pending
The US dollar is predicted to get stronger later in the year.
"and right now our dollar is very strong and it's going to get stronger later this year"
US Dollar Strength
Pending
Historically, after a 20%+ market drop (bear market), it has taken an average of 264 trading days to reach the bottom and 567 trading days to recover.
"the amount of time it took for people to reach the bottom of the market was 264 trading days the amount of time it took to recover from that bottom was exactly 567 trading days"
Stock Market Recovery from Bear Market
Pending
US jobless claims decreased by 11,000 to 200,000, indicating a strong labor market, with March 2022 hitting a 54-year low.
"last week u.s jobless claims went down by 11 000 down to 200 000 which means we have one of the strongest labor markets in decades in fact in march of this year we hit a 54-year low in jobless claims"
Jobless Claims
Pending