ilmscore | RECESSION ALERT: Why The Market Is Falling

RECESSION ALERT: Why The Market Is Falling

Published: 2022-06-10
Status: Available | Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 11
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 11
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The official determination of whether a recession has begun will be made on July 28th, when the BEA releases its second-quarter advance estimate.
"june 29th will not tell us whether we're in a recession or not but here's exactly when we'll find out that'll be at 8 30 a.m on july 28th that's when the bea will release their second quarter advance estimate and it's at that point we'll have judgment day"
Recession Timing
Pending
If the GDP is positive (meaning no recession in the current period), the earliest a recession could occur would be at the end of the current year or the beginning of the next year.
"but i will say this if it turns out that the gdp is positive then that's a good thing because at that point we would reset the counter to zero it's at that point that the earliest that we could get into a recession would be at the end of the year or beginning of next year"
Recession Timing
Pending
World economic growth is projected to be closer to 2.9% in the current year, down from an earlier expectation of 4.1% at the start of the year and 5.7% in the previous year.
"last year the world grew by about 5.7 percent at the beginning of this year in january they expected the world to grow by 4.1 percent but now they're saying that the world will actually grow maybe closer to 2.9"
World Economic Growth
Pending
Advanced economies, including the US, are projected to grow by approximately 2.6% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023.
"now they said that advanced economies such as the one here in the us on average will maybe grow by 2.6 percent in 2022 and 2.2 percent by 2023"
US Economic Growth
Pending
Economist Robert Shiller predicts a high probability of heading towards a recession.
"this week economist robert schiller just announced that he thinks there's a good chance that we're headed toward a recession"
Robert Shiller Recession Prediction
Pending
The World Bank President suggests that a recession will be difficult for many countries to avoid.
"for many countries a recession will be hard to avoid"
World Bank Recession Warning
Pending
The World Bank warns of the possibility of experiencing stagflation similar to the 1970s.
"the world bank is also warning people that we could experience 1970s style stagflation"
1970s Style Stagflation Risk
Pending
The advance estimate for the first quarter GDP was -1.4%.
"in that report they said that the gdp was negative 1.4"
US GDP Advance Estimate
Pending
The second estimate for the first quarter GDP revised the figure to -1.5%, indicating a worse decline than initially reported.
"in that new document they basically said guys never mind we're not down 1.4 actually it's a little worse than we thought we're down 1.5"
US GDP Second Estimate
Pending
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker revised its estimate for current GDP downwards from 1.3% on June 1st to 0.9% on June 8th.
"as of june 1st they revised their estimate to 1.3 percent so we lost 0.6 in just a week but now the numbers are looking even worse because as of june 8th they revised the estimate down even lower to 0.9 percent"
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Tracker
Pending
The margin of error for the current GDP estimate is 0.85%, meaning the determination of a recession could be influenced by rounding.
"their margin of error is 0.85 percent so the real answer whether we're gonna have a recession or not could come down to a rounding error"
US GDP Projection Uncertainty
Pending