The World Economy Is Next | CREDIT SUISSE CRITICAL
Published: 2022-10-03
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2022-10-03
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Potential for a global recession due to combined economic and political issues in the UK, Russia, and China.
"if you combine all of this with news of the fact that the bank of England just recently bailed out the UK economy from a collapse that the Russian economy is going through its own political turmoil and that the Chinese real estate market is going through another potential collapse we get a very dangerous recipe for another potential Global recession"
Pending
Confirmed to be in a technical recession based on negative GDP in the first and second quarters.
"we already know that we're in what's called a technical recession because the first quarter was negative 1.6 and the second quarter was negative point six percent"
Pending
The final estimate for Q2 GDP remained negative, confirming the ongoing technical recession.
"just recently the Bea released their third and final estimate for the second quarter GDP and that number was negative point six percent nothing's changed which confirms we're still very much in what's called a technical recession"
Pending
Federal Reserve interest rate hikes could lead to significant trouble for banks.
"every time the Federal Reserve increases the federal funds rate we could also get ourselves into a situation where Banks could get into major trouble"
Pending
Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate is causing bond prices to crater.
"because the Federal Reserve is increasing What's called the federal funds rate the value of their collateral AKA their bond prices is cratering and it's going down"
Pending
Stock prices are declining as a consequence of falling bond prices.
"and by extension so are their stock prices"
Pending
Banks facing collateral value drops may need government bailouts; failure to do so could lead to collapse, impacting all parties they have lent to.
"which could leave them asking the government for a bailout and if that doesn't happen that could lead to a collapse which is bad not only for that company but for everyone else whom they've given money to"
Pending
The price of Credit Default Swaps for Credit Suisse is at a level not seen since 2009, indicating market concern.
"the price of what are called credit default swaps which have now reached a price level that was last seen around 2009."
Pending
Similar market concerns (as indicated by Credit Default Swaps) are also affecting Deutsche Bank.
"this exact same thing is also happening to another major bank called Deutsche Bank"
Pending
Failure of a major bank could trigger a contagion effect, leading to systemic collapse.
"if that bank goes under so does the whole system and the reason for that is because of What's called the contagion effect it's exactly what it sounds like it's an effect that's contagious when one institution fails that leads to another which leads to another which leads to the whole world"
Pending
Expect continued strengthening of the US dollar and increased volatility in the stock market.
"that's also why we're probably gonna continue seeing a stronger dollar and more volatility in the stock market"
Pending
Historical data shows that peaks in the US dollar have coincided with economic recessions, bubbles, and crises.
"Morgan Stanley which saw that every time the dollar hit a peak it coincided with every economic recession every bubble and every crisis"
Pending