ilmscore | The Stock Market Just FLIPPED | The Fed's NEW Plan Explained

The Stock Market Just FLIPPED | The Fed's NEW Plan Explained

Published: 2022-11-28
Status: Available | Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 7
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 7
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Historically, it has taken an average of six months for the Fed to reverse course after starting interest rate hikes. Given the current timeline (March 2022 rate hikes, video date ~November 2022), the Fed is past this average, suggesting a slowdown in rate hikes is likely.
"looking back as far as 1971 over the last nine fed pivots it has taken an average of six months before the FED finally starts to reverse"
Federal Reserve Pivot
Pending
The Federal Reserve is predicted to raise interest rates by 0.5% on December 14th, which is a slower pace than their previous 0.75% increases, indicating a slowdown in rate hikes.
"the next time the FED will raise our rate on December 14th the range shows that there's a 75.8 percent chance that the next range will fall between 4.25 and 4.5 percent that is exactly a difference of half a percent which means the next time the FED will raise our rates it'll be by half a percent Which is less than their usual and their usual has been 0.75 in the last four increases"
Federal Reserve Interest Rates
Pending
Based on a CNBC survey of economists, analysts, and strategists, the earliest the Federal Reserve would pivot (start lowering interest rates) is predicted to be December 2023 or January 2024.
"the earliest the FED would pivot is theoretically December 2023 or January 2024."
Federal Reserve Pivot
Pending
For the Federal Reserve to consider pivoting, they want to see the core PCE inflation rate average 2.6% or lower for a continuous period of at least five months.
"they want to see the core pce which remember is a fancy way of measuring inflation to average 2.6 percent or lower for at least five months"
Core PCE Inflation
Pending
A condition for the Federal Reserve to consider pivoting is an unemployment rate of at least 5.3%.
"they want to see unemployment at at least 5.3 percent"
Unemployment Rate
Pending
For the Federal Reserve to pivot, the GDP growth rate is predicted to average negative 2.2% over the next four quarters, indicating a recession.
"this survey shows that they want to see a GDP of negative 2.2 percent so what does that mean this year our GDP is going to finish the year roughly at a positive 1.5 percent which means next year the next four quarters need to average a negative 2.2 percent"
GDP Growth
Pending
Economists surveyed by CNBC expect the Federal funds rate to peak at an average of 4.83% in March 2023 and remain at that level for approximately 10 months, potentially until December 2023 or January 2024, before any pivot occurs.
"they're expecting the federal funds rate to finally reach a peak point in March of 2023 next year that's when it'll reach an average of 4.83 that's the peak point they expect that rates will last at that high point for about 10 months that would take us to December 2023 or as late as January 2024."
Federal Reserve Pivot Timeline
Pending