Published: 2023-04-10
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Predictions from this Video
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Prediction
Topic
Status
There is a 57% probability of a recession beginning by late December 2023, and over a 95% probability by late July 2024.
"there's a 57 chance that a recession will start on or before late December 2023 and there's more than a 95 chance that it will start on or before Late July 2024."
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A recession appears inevitable by late 2024.
"so it really does look like a recession is pretty much inevitable by late 2024"
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The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates slightly in the next month, which may be their final rate hike.
"it looks like the FED will raise their rates once again next month only by a little bit and that might be their last rate hike"
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Morgan Stanley predicts commercial real estate prices could decrease by up to 40% in the next few years.
"Morgan Stanley thinks prices could fall as much as 40 over the next few years"
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Commercial real estate values are estimated to fall by as much as 40% due to various economic factors.
"it's estimated that commercial real estate Could Fall by as much as 40 percent thanks to all these factors"
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The current economic situation is predicted to be a worse sequel to the 2008 financial crisis.
"this is a sequel to 2008 and like all sequels this one's going to be worse"
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Since October of the previous year, 760 companies have eliminated 538,000 jobs.
"since October of last year 760 companies have cut 538 000 jobs"
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Historically, investors in U.S. investment-grade bonds have seen an average return of 26% in the two years following the last rate hike in a cycle.
"over the last seven raid hike Cycles investors that bought U.S investment grade bonds made an average 26 percent in the next two years following the last rate hike"
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$1.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans are scheduled to mature before the end of 2025.
"1.5 trillion dollars worth of loans will be due before the end of 2025."
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Approximately one-third of office buildings in the top 80 metropolitan areas are projected to become obsolete.
"nearly a third of Office Buildings in its top 80 metros could be quote obsolete"
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The probability of a recession occurring by 2024 is estimated to be over 50%.
"by 2024 the odds of a recession are over 50 percent"
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Credit card balances reached a record nearly $1 trillion at the end of the previous year.
"credit card balances especially have hit a new record at the end of last year nearly one trillion dollars"
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Credit card Annual Percentage Rates (APRs) are approaching 20%, the highest since 1985.
"credit card aprs are hitting almost 20 percent which is the highest level since 1985."
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The current inversion of the yield curve is deeper than any seen since the 1980s.
"the inverted yield curve is so deeply inverted that we haven't seen it like this since the 1980s"
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