My February Drawdown! (The reality of trading)
Published: 2016-02-15
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2016-02-15
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The speaker expects the Dollar CAD to continue its downward move within the week and hit profit targets, having already moved stops down to reduce risk.
"and so far we've made it down about a third of the way to profits and at first my stop loss was above this previous structure level here and since breaking below and closing below a support level here I've decided to move stops down to just above this previous Little Resistance area here a little bit of trade management to get some of the risk off the table and hopefully within the week we'll see this Market continue to roll over over and come down and hit our profit targets"
Pending
A winning Euro Dollar trade occurred on February 4th, involving a break and close above structure levels, followed by a 786 retracement buy, with targets at previous structure and stops below previous structure.
"we did have a good win on the euro dollar in the month of February that came right over here on February the 4th if you can take a look at this structure level here you see that we broke and closed above it and what I do when I see a break and close above a couple of different structure levels as you can see we also broke and close Above This previous resistance I go from my swing low here up to the newly created swing high and we look for what a 786 retracement which we got right here and we take our stops down here below previous structure targets up at the bodies of the previous candles that's where I take targets and as you can see we actually had a nice win on this trade"
Pending
A trade was taken on Dollar Yen on February 5th based on a break and close above resistance levels, followed by a Fibonacci retracement from swing low to swing high, anticipating trend continuation after a 786 retracement.
"and on the dollar Yen we are currently short on the batpack pattern I actually don't know if we've been filled yet maybe not quite yet but so far in the month of February the dollar Yen only has produced one trade that we could take according to the rules of our trading plan and that was on February the 5th as you can see here we had a breaking close above a couple of different resistance levels for that reason I took a Fibonacci retracement from swing low up to swing High expecting Trend continuation after reaching this 786 retracement"
Pending
A winning Cipher pattern trade occurred on the Pound Dollar, contributing to exiting a drawdown.
"but let's skip down to the pound dollar where we had a winning Cipher pattern and I will let you see if you can spot this Cipher pattern before I draw it in if you're interested in learning about the cipher pattern then check out my video tutorial on how to identify a cipher pattern I'll post a link to that video in the bottom left hand side of your screen have you spotted it yet if this is what you saw then you are correct big Cipher pattern win there for us only pound dollar which helped try to get us out of the draw down"
Pending
A winning Cipher pattern on Dollar CAD on February 1st resulted in the market rolling over and hitting first targets.
"we also had a winning Cipher pattern on this pair on February the first if you're not familiar with the cipher pattern again I will post a link in the bottom left hand side of your screen screen and this Cipher pattern comes in starting our X point from here x to A A to B B to C CD completion right around there Market rolled over easily hitting our first targets"
Pending
A Bat pattern on Pound Swiss, with CD completion at the 886, did not hit targets and resulted in a stop out.
"Our most previous loss here on the pound Swiss which was a bat pattern XX to A A to B B to C CD completion right up here at the 886 we rolled over a bit but did not quite hit targets and we came up and ended up being stopped out earlier this morning on this trade"
Pending
A Bat pattern on Euro Aussie with CD completion at the 886 was a losing trade, even though the market continued to drop after the completion point.
"the Euro Aussie also recently lost a bat pattern for us earlier this morning X to A A to B B to C CD completion at the 886 and we have continued to drop even after hitting the completion point of our bat pattern so that trade stopped us out"
Pending
A successful 786 trade on Euro Aussie occurred on February 10th, with targets at previous structure hit on February 11th, following a break and close above structure levels.
"and we won a pretty nice 786 trade I'll let you see if you can spot it this trade came in on February the 10th do you see it yet we had a break and close above previous structure levels so I took a Fibonacci retracement from this swing low up to swing High we bought the 786 retracement and we had targets up at previous structure which were hit on February the 11th"
Pending
A Euro Pound 786 trade is open, close to hitting its stop and closing below previous structure. The plan is to close at break-even if the price returns to entry or the 786 retracement level.
"we have a trade open right now on the Euro pound this was a 786 trade that we had and we have come down very close to hitting our stop and also we've closed below our previous structure level so if we get back up to our entry we'll be closing this trade at break even if we can get back up here to the 786 retracement"
Pending
A successful 786 trade on New Zealand Dollar on February 11th involved breaking below support, looking for targets at previous structure, and ultimately hitting those targets.
"where on February 11th we had a successful 786 trade as you can see here broke below previous support level then we take our Fibonacci retracement to swing High to swing low we looked for targets back at previous structure the bodies of the candles and we had our stops placed just above previous structure resistance as you can see there and this Market came up to test previous structure but eventually did roll over come down and hit our targets"
Pending
The speaker anticipated a significant drawdown occurring approximately every three months, lasting between two weeks and two months.
"I thought I was pretty close to having a draw down because I normally have one that is pretty significant somewhere around every 3 months and this draw down normally lasts between two weeks and two months"
Pending
The current drawdown is approximately 6%, with an expectation that it will not go much lower than 8-10%, aligning with the previous prediction of reaching around 1100 Pips.
"if you'll remember back to that video I did say that I thought I would have a draw down bringing me down to closer to 1,000 Pips here before continuing to Rally up and if I paste in these numbers of the total Pips we've made in the account you will see that that's almost exactly what we've done so far we were up here at 142 Pips and through the month of February through all the losses we have come down closer to 1100 Pips and began to consolidate hopefully we won't go much lower than this this is already about a 6% draw down for me and normally these draw Downs don't go down much lower than 8 to 10%"
Pending
Successful traders do not need high accuracy (e.g., 70-80%). The speaker, with 58% accuracy and a 1.2 risk-to-reward ratio, has achieved 1,600 Pips in 4 months, suggesting that a slight edge is sufficient for profitability.
"professional and successful Traders lose normally somewhere around 40% of their trades sometimes a little more sometimes a little less depending on the way their risk reward profile is set up but you do not have to necessarily be 70 or 80% ACC in order to be successful trading as you can see up here if we take a look at the number section of my spreadsheet I'm actually only about 58% accurate in my trading decisions and I only have a one around a 1.2 risk to reward I would not call this risk to reward great and I would also not call 60% accurate great but it's good enough to produce 1,6 Pips in 4 months"
Pending
Based on the performance over four months, a consistent trading approach could lead to an annualized return of 60-80%, which is considered successful.
"four months is a third of the year so if you were pretty consistent in your trading for the rest of the year then you should be able to profit somewhere between 60 to 80% by the end of the year and guys if you can produce 60 to 80% in a year you are a successful Trader"
Pending
Professional traders profit by having a slight, proven advantage over the market and consistently executing a trading plan.
"you just have to have a slight advantage that's how professional Traders make money is by having a slight advantage over the market we wake up every day with a plan that is proven to give us a slight advantage over the market and we trade that plan to the best of our ability in order to produce us as much profit as possible"
Pending