ilmscore | Trading Expectations vs Trading Reality ( Equity Curve breakdown )

Predictions from this Video

Total: 10
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 10
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
A $10,000 trading account with a 60% annual return, compounded over 10 years, could grow to $1 million.
"60% a year on a $10,000 account and compounding that return... that $10,000 account in 10 years with a 60% return would be at a million dollar."
Trading Returns
Pending
Realistic trading performance involves months with no profit, occasional small gains (e.g., 5%), and rarer good months (e.g., 11-12%), with the annual outcome being a combination of these.
"I'm going to show you guys what it looks like on an equity curve to go through a draw down and I'm going to try to show you guys what the reality of trading is it's not these months filled with 60 to 100% every month you know there's months that you make nothing and then there's months you make 5% sometimes you get a real good month and make 11 or 12 but they all combine at the end of the year"
Trading Performance
Pending
In January, a professional trader experienced a 6% drawdown, ending the month close to break-even after numerous trades.
"January which is going to be trades 1 through 16 was a month of pretty much back and forth trading we had around 16 trades in the month of January and the equity curve as you can see we went from our starting balance of 10,000 down to about 9400 about a 6% draw down there and then barely skated back up above 10,000 to about 10,300 again back down again back up and ended the month right at break even I think we were about $100 to the negative or 1% to the negative at the end of January"
Trading Performance
Pending
In February, trading resulted in a 7.9% return after an initial rise to approximately 10%.
"February going from trade number 16 to about 27 you can see we finally did get a little bump in our Equity curve we had a few good trades here pushing us up to about a 10% return and then we fluctuated around here at 10% before ending the month at a 7.9% return in February"
Trading Performance
Pending
March showed a significant gain, increasing the account's return from 7.9% to 24.8% with eight winning trades and one loss.
"so through the month of February we have a 7.9% return using a 2% risk based on the EAP emailed analysis if I drag down my numbers here for March you can see that in March we had eight winners and one loser bringing our account total from 7.9% to 24.8%."
Trading Performance
Pending
The speaker cautions against the belief that making 20% per month consistently is normal or achievable without extremely high risk, suggesting that more realistic monthly gains are typically in the 4-5% range, with occasional higher months.
"you also have people that say and I've had these comments as well oh you're only making four to 5% a month that's nothing I make 20% a month every month and it's consistent now I'm not saying they're lying because I have no idea nor do I really care whether or not they're making 20% a month I just don't want them to be giving new Traders or for any Traders false hope that 20% a month is a normal month it's not not unless you're using some kind of wacky risk management plan and risking 10% a trade"
Trading Expectations
Pending
New traders should not expect to double their account quickly, as this leads to false hope and disappointment.
"if you're just starting out having the expectation of doubling an account really quickly is just going to give you false hope and ultimately lead to more disappointment"
Trading Expectations for Beginners
Pending
Any profitability in trading places an individual in the top 5% of participants.
"if you're making any money at all you're doing better than 95% of people that try to do this"
Trading Success Rate
Pending
It's advisable to pause trading and focus on education and developing a tested, profitable plan if one doesn't already exist.
"if you don't have a tested Prov it to be profitable plan might be a good idea not to trade maybe take a little bit of time and just educate yourself"
Trading Strategy
Pending
A profitable trading strategy requires not only identification but also the trader's faith in it to withstand drawdowns, which is crucial for long-term success.
"you can find successful strategies but if you don't have faith in that strategy if you can't survive the draw Downs of that strategy it's going to be very difficult to be a successful Trader"
Trading Strategy
Pending