PERFECT Beginner FOREX Strategy
Published: 2019-09-18
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2019-09-18
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
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The speaker presents a trading strategy designed to help beginners become professional traders, emphasizing that it's not a get-rich-quick scheme but a structured approach.
"the perfect beginner trading strategy that I'm gonna show you obviously that would be [ __ ] and if you hear anyone say that in front of a video or course or anything else understand that it's [ __ ] that's not what actually happens in the markets but what I will tell you is that if you follow the instructions that I lay out for you in this video and actually go through every step in the process to creating the strategy to actually using this strategy then it will help you on your path to becoming a professional trader"
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This strategy aims to provide an edge over the market and will help beginners understand market structure and trend, which are foundational concepts.
"this strategy is not only going to give you an edge over the market if traded correctly if tested correctly if you do all the steps right it won't only give you an edge over the market but as you are now if you are a beginner or if you're someone who's still struggling in the forex market then that struggle is due to a few factors one of those being you may not understand the foundations of trading which would be structure and trend this strategy will help you practice that beyond belief it's actually has a lot to do with structure and trend"
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The strategy will also help develop patience and discipline, crucial traits for beginner traders.
"it'll help you with patients and with discipline as well and those are some of the most important parts especially as a beginner to actually start to understand"
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The primary goal of any trading strategy or rule set is to provide an edge or advantage over the market.
"the main focus is that rule set gives us what we call an edge or advantage over the market"
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Traders should aim to have a statistical advantage, like a 55-60% win rate with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio, or a 50% win rate with a 2:1 risk-reward ratio, similar to a casino's edge.
"your job is to be the casino not the guy walking into play games trading is not a game you don't want to be the guy you want to be the casino and you want to make sure you have let's say a 55 to a 60 percent chance to win with a 1 to 1 risk reward that would be considered an advantage or maybe you have a 2 to 1 risk reward and you're winning 50% of your trades that is an advantage those are a couple of the ways we can actually get an advantage over the market"
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Backtesting by examining historical data is the recommended method to determine if a strategy has an edge without risking live capital.
"the best way to do this is to do something called back testing so in the process of back testing you're looking through historical data to find the strategy or the rule set that you have created"
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Different currency pairs have distinct personalities; Yen pairs, for example, tend to trend well, making them suitable for testing trend continuation strategies.
"every difference a pair has a different personality and it's absolutely true there are certain currency pairs trend really well for instance yen pairs tend to trend really well as if we're trading a trained continuation strategy we want to test yen pears first and see which ones we come up with the best results on"
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The described Forex trading strategy has two distinct entry methods.
"this strategy we're going to talk about today though has two different ways to enter this specific strategy"
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A trending move is defined as a 1-2-3 pattern where an impulsive move is followed by a pullback of at least two candles, and then a break below previous structure (for a downtrend) or above previous structure (for an uptrend).
"a trending market is going to be a market that makes at least what I call a 1 to 3 move one there two there three breaking below the previous lows this outside return or pullback must have at least two green candles okay if we have a push down that's impulsive we have two green candles pulling back and a break below this structure level I consider that a trend a trending move"
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For trend continuation, trades are only considered when the market pulls back to the previous low (for a downtrend) or previous high (for an uptrend).
"the only time you place a trade whenever you're testing this the only time you test to place a trade you only time I would place a trade based on this strategy is once the market gets back up to only this previous low okay we're and we're gonna do this on a chart to make it easier to understand in a minute but only at the point that the market makes it back up to that previous low that is the only time you look for a trade"
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Trading on the daily chart is recommended for beginners to avoid detrimental mistakes, develop patience, and focus on a longer-term profitable journey, rather than expecting immediate financial independence.
"only do this on a daily chart for now if you're just starting out or even if you're someone who's not profitable unfortunately a lot of us come into the forex market me included when I first started a lot of us come into the forex market expecting to be able to quit our jobs in a month and be trading from a large account large enough account to where we don't have to work anymore and we can provide for ourselves or our families unfortunately especially if you're here hopefully you've already figured this out that's not what normally happens don't be afraid to be patient not only in your trades but in your journey to becoming profitable trading on the daily chart will keep you from making some of the detrimental mistakes that you could be making in a day trading account that would cause you to bleed your account dry"
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Entry signals for the strategy include a shooting star candle (for bearish) or a hammer candle (for bullish), or an engulfing candle at the key level.
"once we hit this level let's say we have a candle that touches that level I would enter in two ways one a shooting star candle hammer if we flip this to bullish and we'll do an example of that in a second or an engulfing candle at this area after the touch"
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Stop-loss levels are determined using the Average True Range (ATR) indicator (e.g., 180 ATR above the high), with targets set at either previous structure or a 1:1 risk-reward ratio for beginners.
"let's say your stop-loss is 180 our ATR is an indicator you could find on trading view that's the platform I use ATR is one of the very first indicators that pops up once you which once you click the indicator button own trading view so you use an ATR indicator to figure out the stop-loss let's say it's above this high by 180 are you put your target either back down at previous structure or one-to-one risk/reward totally up to you how you do targets personally I set mine at a one-to-one risk reward I do multiple targets but if you're a beginner it's not how you need to take targets either do a one-to-one risk reward or back at previous structure for Trend continuation"
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A strategy is considered to have an edge if backtesting yields a 55-60% win rate with a 1:1 or higher risk-reward ratio.
"if you come up with 55 to a 60 percent chance of winning with a 1 to 1 or above risk reward then you have an obvious edge or advantage over the market"
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For a bullish trend continuation, look for an impulsive move, a two-candle pullback, a break and close above the prior high, then a pullback to that high, followed by a hammer or engulfing candle for entry.
"looking for an impulsive move a pullback this pullback has at least two candles we're looking for the market to break above that high before the pullback after the market breaks above the high before the pullback we're waiting for the market to pull back again touch that high once we touch that high we have two ways we can enter either a hammer candle because we're bullish now I'm not a shooting star a hammer candle or an engulfing candle at this area"
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Traders must test any strategy themselves to verify its edge and be the decision-maker for their own money, rather than blindly trusting others.
"don't just go out and trade this one that's exactly what I mean if you haven't tested the strategy you heard from another trailer trader that told you you could buy a Lamborghini tomorrow from it then go test it see if it actually provides an edge over the market make sure you're the decider of where your money goes and not someone else don't take my word for this strategy go out in the markets and test it your self"
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A minimum of 100 trades, or more, should be included in a backtest to gather sufficient historical data.
"I do at least a hundred trades in a backtest so when you do that testing through historical data hit at least a hundred trades or more"
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An uptrend is identified by a 1-2-3 move, and an entry can be taken upon a hammer candlestick appearing at the resistance level during the pullback.
"the reason we're in an uptrend is because we have our one two three move one two three in an uptrend we pull back to that resistance level we get a hammer candlestick at this point is when I would enter the market"
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Missing large market moves is a normal part of trading; no one can catch every single significant price movement, so traders should not be overly concerned about it.
"missing out on moves is a part of trading it happens to everybody you're not gonna be able to catch every single big move up that you that happens in the market no one can if I could predict exactly what the market was going to do if I could catch every single big move I would put a hundred percent of my account on these moves no one can do that so don't be scared of missing moves every now and then that's ok that happens"
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An example on EUR/USD last week showed a winning trade where the market touched a major structure level, formed a shooting star candle, and moved down.
"the euro dollar did an example of this last week and we had this level pointed out in last week's video as a major level of structure the market came in to that level put in a nice shooting star candle and it did push the market down quite a bit we've now pushed back up into that level a little but that was another example of a winning scenario"
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A potential trading opportunity is identified on GBP/NZD, where the market has broken above a structural resistance level and completed a 1-2-3 move.
"guys we found a market that's actually doing this right now a potential trading opportunity based on this strategy right here on the pound New Zealand and on the pound who's in them what we have is a market that broke above and this is actually the same pair that we were just looking at but we have a market that just broke above a level of structural resistance right here because of that do we have our like one two three move we do one two three"
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GBP/NZD and EUR/CAD are recommended pairs for initial strategy testing due to their strong respect for structure, along with Yen pairs.
"the pound New Zealand the Euro Canada would be the two pairs I would suggest you start with both of those respects structure extremely well yen pears also respect structure extremely well so there's where you can start your testing daily chart on those pairs test a hundred times of this exact thing happening exactly as we just discussed"
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A comprehensive trading plan should be built around the strategy, including its rules, a risk management plan, and optimized currency pairs for trading.
"do that process to build the whole trading plan don't just go out here with the strategy and trade blindly you want to build a whole trading plan which is going to consist of all the rules of the strategy a risk management plan that will tell you how much you can risk per trade and the optimized payers that you're gonna trade with this strategy"
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Not all forex pairs behave the same way regarding structure and trend; some are more responsive than others due to their unique personalities.
"there's a lot of forex payers and all of them don't respect structure in the same ways all of them have different personalities some of them respect structure and trend a lot more than others"
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