ilmscore | The ONLY Beginner Trading Strategy YOU Will Ever Need... (BEGINNER TO EXPERT)

Predictions from this Video

Total: 25
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 25
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
A specific trade on AUD/JPY achieved an 11.3:1 reward-to-risk ratio, which originated from the discussed trading strategy.
"just like we have here on the aussie yen only aussie yen i have a trailing stop in place at an 11.3 to 1 reward to risk ratio and this came from the strategy you're about to learn"
AUDJPY
Pending
The speaker plans to analyze a previous Aussie Yen trade using the described strategy.
"let's really quickly go over a bearish version of this then we'll go down to some real charts check out the aussie yen trade and i'll break that entire trade down using this exact strategy"
AUDJPY
Pending
The speaker highlights a specific Aussie Yen trade from 2022 as their best, achieving an 11.4:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
"this trade was a very good trade fantastic trade by far my best trade of 2022 hitting an 11.4 to 1 reward to risk ratio"
AUDJPY
Pending
A bearish trade setup is identified on Euro/Canada, where price has broken a previous support level and is now pulling back into that area, which is also expected to coincide with the 200 EMA.
"looking here on the euro canada for our bearish example what has price just done if i draw a little line here we'll even make a little box here at a previous level of structure you can see that price has just come down and broke through that level of structure so now what are we waiting on well we want to see a pullback into that area as we can see that is currently happening the next thing we need to see is price touch our second area of value which is going to be the 200 ema"
EURCAD
Pending
The entry signal for a bearish trade on Euro/Canada is confirmed by price pulling back to the broken support and the 200 EMA, accompanied by a candlestick pattern (long wick to the top) indicating selling pressure.
"now if i push the market forward what happens right there right here is our actual reason for entry so what price has done is pulled back to a previous support level that was just broken by price it's also pulled into the 200 ema which is drawn very well right there but it's also pulled in the 200 ema and what else has happened we also have a candle with a long wick to the top side and what does that tell us that tells us that selling pressure is coming into the market at least for this candle and it tells us that we have a higher likelihood of price going lower than higher"
EURCAD
Pending
The Euro/Canada trade setup, based on the strategy, was successful and resulted in price moving lower.
"if we click play here you'll see that this trade in fact did work out and start pushing price lower before eventually pushing back up"
EURCAD
Pending
A bullish trade setup is presented on the New Zealand Dollar, where price broke a previous high and is now pulling back into that structure zone and the 200 EMA, followed by a hammer candle indicating buying pressure.
"a bullish example here on the new zealand dollar what has price done here on the new zealand dollar we've pushed up have we broke above the previous high yes we have our previous high looks a little something like this create our zone of structure here at these highs after price breaks above it what's the next thing we need to see a pull back into that area of structure along with this pullback hitting our 200 ema pushing forward here you can see the price in fact does pull back into our area of structure and the 200 ema and after that we get a really nice long wicked candle to the bottom here showing us our hammer candle"
NZDUSD
Pending
A bearish trade setup is identified on the Swiss Yen, where price broke a previous low, crossed below the 200 EMA, and then pulled back to that EMA with a shooting star/upside-down hammer candlestick pattern.
"here on the swiss yen price has just done what broken below our previous low here's our low our lower high we break below that low we cross under our 200 ema we then pull back to that 200 ema right here do we have a combination of the previous low that was broken and the 200 ema yes we do that pullback comes up into that area and we get that nice shooting star slash upside down hammer candlestick pattern"
CHFJPY
Pending
The speaker is introducing a trading strategy called the '200b strategy' which they consider suitable for both beginners due to its simplicity and for professionals due to its profit potential.
"this is an incredible strategy for beginners because of how simplistic it is and also a good strategy for pro traders because of its profit potential in just a second i will be diving deep into every detail of what i call the 200b strategy"
Trading Strategy
Pending
The first component of the strategy involves identifying swing highs and lows, waiting for price to break a previous swing high, and then pulling back to that level. The second component is combining this with the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
"for starters we're looking at swing highs and lows if a market is doing this these new lows from our previous low to our new low that is a swing low these new highs we go from a previous eye to a lower high those are swing highs we're looking at these swing highs and lows and this is normally what a downtrend would look like what we're waiting for is price to push up and break through the previous swing high that is our first component of this very simple strategy we then want to see price pull back to that previous swing high this being our first component our second component is actually this combining with a moving average so this is going to be the 200 ema"
Trading Strategy
Pending
The third component of the strategy is a candlestick pattern (specifically hammers and shooting stars) that appears when price is at an area of value (previous resistance/support and the 200 EMA), indicating a higher probability of price continuing in a specific direction.
"then our third component is some type of candlestick pattern for this example today and what i used only aussie and trade we're gonna use hammers and shooting stars at this point we have stacked up two areas of value and a candlestick pattern all coming together to prove that we have a higher likelihood of price continuing up at this exact moment then it continuing down"
Trading Strategy
Pending
For a bearish trade, the strategy involves price breaking a previous swing low, then pulling back to that level, and this pullback should coincide with the 200 EMA.
"for a bearish version of this strategy we would see price going up this time making new swing highs and lows higher than the previous swing highs and lows and then we would want to see our first component for a bearish trade is a break up the previous swing low after that break of the previous swing low we would want to see price pull back to that previous swing low we would want that to combine with what a 200 ema"
Trading Strategy (Bearish)
Pending
In a bearish scenario, after the pullback to the 200 EMA and broken support (now resistance), a candlestick pattern like a shooting star or an upside-down hammer signals selling pressure.
"after we combine our 200 ema area value with the previous level of structure support that was broken and now should become resistance if markets are trading in a technical way what are we looking for after that after that we'd be looking for in this case an upside down hammer a shooting star a candle with a long wick to the top side does not matter what you call it all of them mean the same thing they all mean selling pressure"
Trading Strategy (Bearish)
Pending
The core purpose of the discussed trading strategy is to provide a statistical edge that yields profits over an extended period, rather than guaranteeing wins on every trade.
"the whole point of that strategy that you're going to have if you choose to have this one the entire point of the strategy is to give you a statistic advantage that plays out over a long period of time"
Trading Strategy
Pending
The speaker states that if a trading strategy isn't profitable, there are three primary reasons.
"if your strategy is not making money right now then it is because of one of just three very simple reasons"
Trading Strategy Rules
Pending
The first reason a strategy fails is a lack of clear, consistent rules, leading traders to act on ideas rather than a defined strategy.
"number one is that you don't have rules to stay consistent to that strategy so if you are trading what you think is a strategy you're more than likely just trading an idea and calling it a rules-based strategy"
Trading Strategy Consistency
Pending
A lack of specific rules for patterns like double tops/bottoms, and not defining entry, stop-loss, and target points, leads to inconsistency and strategy failure.
"if you say that then what are your rules for a double top and a double bottom because sometimes a double top can look exactly symmetrical it can look like an m and then sometimes it can look more like what we have right here on the chart where we see price come up to a level then price go a little bit higher so is this a double top in your eyes according to your strategy according to your rules because if not you're gonna have a really hard time and what i say if not i mean if you don't have rules you're going to have a really hard time staying consistent to that"
Trading Strategy
Pending
The primary cause of strategies not being profitable is trader inconsistency due to a lack of defined rules for entry, stops, and targets.
"the number one reason that most traders are trading strategies and not making money with those strategies is because they're inconsistent to them"
Trading Strategy
Pending
The second reason a strategy fails is that the strategy itself is inherently unprofitable, regardless of whether it has rules.
"reason number two is that you're trading a strategy that is just pitiful that is literally just not profitable you're trading based on something it could have rules behind it but it doesn't matter if it has rules if it doesn't make money"
Trading Strategy
Pending
To avoid trading an unprofitable strategy, it must be tested through backtesting or forward testing (e.g., 3-6 months on a demo account) before using real money.
"so the solution to this is whatever strategy you're trading if you haven't tested it do not trade it with real money you don't have to back test if you don't want to spend three to six months in an account with fake money"
Trading Strategy Testing
Pending
The third reason a strategy fails is unrelated to the strategy itself and stems from poor risk management or trading psychology.
"reason number three has absolutely nothing to do with the strategy reason number three comes down to risk management or trading psychology"
Trading Strategy
Pending
A potentially profitable strategy can fail if the trader employs poor risk management or has flawed trading psychology, leading to inconsistent actions.
"so you could have a strategy that is making money or that should make money over a large sample size of trades like a hundred trades it should make money in that time but you're using a terrible risk management plan or your trading psychology is all whacked up"
Trading Psychology and Risk Management
Pending
Win rates over very small sample sizes (e.g., seven trades) are irrelevant and highly fluctuating, meaning nothing about the strategy's long-term performance.
"your win rate over seven trades is completely and i'm being completely irrelevant it's going to fluctuate so much in that small of a sample size that it means absolutely nothing"
Trading Psychology and Sample Size
Pending
To accurately assess a strategy's performance and winning percentage, a large sample size of trades (around 100) is necessary for its statistical edge to manifest.
"work on looking at 100 trade sample size to see the correct outcome that you can expect from a strategy the correct winning percentage of a strategy it will not show it to you until you have a large enough sample size of trades for that edge to play out"
Risk Management and Sample Size
Pending
Reducing trading risk is the first step to improving both bad risk management and trading psychology issues.
"if you have bad risk management or bad trading psychology right now the first thing you can do is reduce your risk because that's going to help with trading psychology already"
Risk Management and Trading Psychology
Pending