TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 3 Secrets That Saved My Trading Career... (And may save yours)
Published: 2023-09-05
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2023-09-05
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The speaker will reveal the four technical factors that have proven most effective in their decade of trading experience.
"by the end of this video you're going to know the four technical factors that I've seen work the best throughout my decade of trading experience"
Pending
A trading strategy will be built by combining four specific technical factors.
"we're going to do is combine all four of these technical factors in order to create a strategy"
Pending
The four most effective technical factors for creating trading strategies are identified as Trend, major levels of structure, chart patterns, and candlestick patterns.
"these are the technical factors that work best and they are number one Trend number two major levels of structure number three chart patents and number four Candlestick patterns"
Pending
An entire trading strategy will be constructed using the four identified technical factors and the CEST framework.
"we're actually going to build an entire strategy based around those four technical factors and we're going to use c-e-s-t in order to do that"
Pending
Trend will be the primary condition for this specific trading strategy.
"number one on the list of technical factors for conditions for me is going to be Trend I'm going to look for Trend when trading this specific strategy every single time"
Pending
Condition one for the trading strategy is defined as price being below the 50 EMA and creating a new lower low.
"for condition number one for me I would want to see price below the 50 EMA and price creating a new lower low so that would be condition number one"
Pending
Condition two for the trading strategy is a major level of structure, defined as the most recent broken level in a downtrend that has been tested multiple times.
"condition number two for me after trend is gonna be a major level of structure now I identify major levels of structure in a very specific way the major level of structure for me needs to be the latest level that was broken in this downtrend which is right here and it must be a level that's been tested multiple times"
Pending
The entry reason for the trading strategy can be based on either chart patterns (more conservative) or candlestick patterns (more aggressive).
"I'm actually ready to start looking for an entry reason now the two types of Entry reasons that I personally use for strategies like this are I like to use chart patterns or Candlestick patterns"
Pending
The stop loss for this trading strategy will be set at approximately one times the ATR indicator value.
"for stops on this specific trade and with this specific strategy I like to do about one times the ATR indicator"
Pending
Targets for this trading strategy will be set at the next major structure level.
"I wanted to hold the second part of my position until we got to the next major structure level again that's a technical factor I use all the time for taking targets"
Pending
The second target for the trade is expected to yield approximately a 1.8 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio.
"if it gets hit around a 1.8 to 1 on the second part of the position"
Pending
Summary of the CEST strategy: C (Conditions: Trend, Major Structure Level), E (Entry Reason: Chart Patterns - conservative, Candlestick Patterns - aggressive), S (Stop Loss: 1 ATR above entry candle), T (Target: Next Major Structure Level).
"we have C conditions Trend and at a major level of structure as I've defined it we have e for an entry reason which is going to be either sharp patterns for a conservative approach or Candlestick patterns four a more aggressive approach then we have S which stands for our stop loss and for me that's going to be one ATR above the entry candle then we have t which stands for targets which is going to be at the next major level of structure"
Pending
RSI Divergence will be introduced as a bonus technical factor to consider, particularly for reversals, in addition to chart patterns like double tops.
"in this case I can give you a bonus technical factor that I love to use so let's do this again on the 15 minute chart but on this chart we're looking at this as more of a reversal we did actually get a double top here so again chart patterns here's my double top but what I want to show you on this chart though is a bonus tactical factor and that bonus technical factor is RSI Divergence"
Pending
RSI Divergence can be used as an additional condition within a trading strategy.
"whenever I see RSI Divergence it is another technical factor that I will consider using for an extra condition with a strategy"
Pending
Technical analysis alone cannot fix a trader's mindset; discipline, risk management, and consistency are learned traits crucial for profitable trading.
"technical analysis will never fix your mindset no matter how good you get at technical analysis no matter how good you are at analyzing a chart knowing technical analysis will never ever fix that space that's right above your eyes where hopefully your brain is right between your ears the mindset you have when you're trading your discipline your ability to stay disciplined to a strategy take discipline to a risk management plan your ability to keep from switching strategies to keep removing your stops and targets your mindset around trading will never be fixed with technical analysis but here's what will fits it good trading psychology and a good trading mindset is not something you're just born with it's not something that comes natural but it's something that you can learn and if you want to be a profitable Trader it's something you must learn"
Pending
Even profitable traders, including the speaker, experienced losses due to poor trading psychology and eventually recognized its paramount importance over trading strategy.
"every profitable Trader including myself at some point was losing money due to having bad trading psychology and eventually they made the realization that trading psychology is just as or more important than the strategy that you trade"
Pending
The speaker shares personal past mistakes including frequently switching strategies, moving stop losses downwards, and moving targets upwards based on emotions rather than a plan.
"I was consistently switching strategies from one to the other on almost a daily or at best weekly basis I never stuck to any of the rules I had in place including where my stop loss was supposed to go if I started losing a trade I would just keep moving my stop loss down because I was terrified of actually losing money because I had a bad trading mindset I also would move my target up if I thought the market would keep going but what does that even mean I thought the market would keep going that's called trading based on emotions"
Pending
Trading is presented as a method for building wealth over an extended period, not a get-rich-quick scheme.
"trading is a way to build wealth over time and it can help you become wealthy it can but not as fast as most people think it can so understanding what trading is which is a way to get wealthy over a long period of time not a way to get rich super fast"
Pending
Achieving 100% weekly or monthly returns is highly unlikely; 100% annually is presented as a more achievable, though still ambitious, expectation for traders.
"it is really really really unlikely and nearly impossible for me to be making a hundred percent a week 100 a month would be wildly nearly impossible 100 a year now we're getting closer to something that's doable"
Pending
The speaker's trading account showed a 61% return over approximately 7.6 months in 2023, equating to about 7.6% per month, projected to reach around 91% annually if performance continues.
"my results over the past about eight months of 2023. as you can see we have about a 61 return and if we do the math on that 61 divided by it's not quite eight months but we'll go eight months it is seven point six percent per month if I multiply that by 12 and if everything continues as planned I'll make about 91 this year"
Pending
Backtesting a trading strategy is essential to build belief in it, preventing emotional trading and the tendency to switch strategies without proof of their efficacy.
"back test your trading strategy in order to increase belief if you're trading a system or a strategy or God forbid you're just trading without a system and placing buy and sell orders based on emotions like I did at the beginning of my career you definitely got to stop doing that but if you're trading just based on strategy you've never tested you're just believing what somebody else said that taught it to you or you're just placing trades based on what you think may work and you've never tested it in historic data you're going have a really hard time sticking to that strategy"
Pending
Backtesting a strategy increases belief, which in turn boosts discipline and improves trading psychology, making it easier to handle losses and drawdowns.
"you must back test that strategy to see that it's at least worked in the past that's going to increase your belief which in turn will increase your discipline and help you with your mindset help you with your trading psychology the more you believe in this strategy the easier it's going to be for you to handle losses and for you to handle inevitable drawdowns when we're trading"
Pending
Profitable trading relies on a statistical advantage derived from a backtested strategy that consistently provides an edge over time, rather than predicting market movements.
"trading not based on the fact that we know what the Market's going to do we're trading based on a statistic advantage that we have over a long period of time by trading a strategy that we've made or learned that's proven to give an edge through the back testing process"
Pending
Understanding and correctly managing trading risks, including the inevitability of losses and drawdowns even for experienced traders, is crucial.
"understanding and managing risk correctly so just understanding the risks involved in trading is the first part of that you need to know that you're going to have losses no matter how good you get at trading you could understand technical analysis like the back of your hand you could understand the strategy you're trading like the back of your hand and you will still have losing trades you will still go through drawdowns I've been trading for a decade I still have drawdowns"
Pending
Risking between 1-2% of the account value per trade is recommended as a more effective risk management strategy compared to risking 10%.
"instead of risking ten percent per trade it's way better to manage risk correctly for me I risk between one and two percent of my account value"
Pending
Traders should not expect 1000% weekly returns; profitability stems from having a statistical advantage that plays out over time, not from predicting market movements.
"don't be expecting a thousand percent a week trading is not something where you you know exactly what the market is going to do and that's why you're a profitable Trader trading is having statistic advantage that plays out over time"
Pending
Backtesting a trading strategy with at least 100 historical trades is necessary to prove its worth and increase belief in its efficacy.
"back test your trading strategy take the rules you've created or learned for a trading strategy and look at them through historic data for at least 100 trades no matter how long it takes to find that 100 trades you want to do that so you can prove to yourself that it's a strategy worth trading so you can increase your belief"
Pending
A risk management plan that ensures comfort during losing trades and inevitable drawdowns is crucial for trading psychology.
"understand the risks involved in trading and manage those risks accordingly by applying a risk management plan that keeps you comfortable even during losing trades that keeps you comfortable even during periods of drawdown which are inevitable and will happen"
Pending