When Recession?? What It Means For You & Your Portfolio!!
Published: 2024-05-19
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-05-19
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The lag effect of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes suggests a recession is nearing, approximately two years after the rate hikes began.
"given that it's been roughly 2 years since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates we're nearing the upper bound of when the lag effect should kick in and cause a recession"
Pending
The Duncan leading index's freefall suggests a potentially severe upcoming recession.
"considering that the Duncan leading index seems to be in freefall this suggests that the upcoming recession if it occurs could be severe"
Pending
Based on the Duncan leading index rolling over in 2021 and a 2-4 year lag, a recession could set in within another year.
"according to EPB research the Duncan leading index started rolling over in 2021 considering that it seems to have a 2 to fouryear lag then it could be another year before the recession sets in"
Pending
The Su rule indicator needs to be above 0.5 to confirm a recession in the US.
"for confirmation that the US is in recession the Su rule needs to be above 0.5"
Pending
A former Fed advisor believes the US has been in recession since October 2023, based on unemployment rising in all 50 states in October of the previous year.
"well the unemployment rate in all 50 states Rose in October last year as a result Danielle believes that the US has been in recession since October 2023"
Pending
A 2008-style recession requires a major catalyst, with current potential catalysts identified as commercial real estate, banking, and the government itself.
"for there to be a 2008 style recession there would need to be some major Catalyst like for instance the collapse of Lian Brothers which caused financial institutions to stop lending to each other overnight today there only seem to be two catalysts commercial real estate and Banking and the government itself"
Pending
A rapid devaluation of US bonds could lead to the implosion of the global financial system.
"if they lose their value too quickly the Global Financial system could implode"
Pending
Without the identified catalysts (commercial real estate/banking crisis, government fiscal crisis), any recession is expected to be mild and short-lived.
"barring these two catalysts though the recession is likely to be mild and shortlived if it comes at all"
Pending
Stimulus for assets benefiting from money printing might be delayed during a recession if high inflation is present.
"if you're into crypto or other assets that benefit from money printing you need to know that this stimulus may not come right away if the recession is coupled with high inflation"
Pending
The size of stimulus during a recession coupled with high inflation may be smaller than expected due to the risk of further inflation.
"it may also not be as big as investors expect this is because of what I just mentioned a few moments ago the risk of more inflation"
Pending
Ray Dalio predicts a mixed response to economic downturns including government spending cuts, debt restructuring, wealth redistribution, and central bank money printing.
"according to famous hedge fund manager Ray Delio we would likely see a mix of everything we would see a combination of governments reducing their spending restructuring their debts redistributing wealth from the rich to the poor and central banks printing money"
Pending
A stagflationary environment will necessitate a more active investment strategy due to mixed market impacts.
"the impact on the markets in a stagflationary environment will therefore be mixed and it will require more active rather than passive investment"
Pending