Watch Out!! Economy Could Get Worse?! The BIS Predicts This!
Published: 2024-08-04
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-08-04
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Central banks are expected to begin lowering interest rates, despite inflation still being above their 2% targets.
"monetary policy has been successful in taming inflation this is significant as it suggests that central banks will begin lowering interest rates even though inflation is still above their 2% targets"
Pending
A significant increase in interest rates by the Bank of Japan could trigger the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, leading to global market volatility.
"if the boj starts raising interest rates in a meaningful way this could cause the so-called Yen carry trade to unwind causing Global Market volatility"
Pending
The primary risk to a soft economic landing is the substantial amount of debt accumulated by both the private and public sectors.
"the biggest risk to a soft Landing is the unfathomable amount of debt that's been taken on by the private sector AKA households and corporations and the public sector AKA governments"
Pending
Inflation risks stem from rising goods costs due to supply chain problems and rising labor costs driven by labor shortages.
"the bis also sees inflation as a risk specifically inflation coming from a rising cost of goods caused by supply chain issues and inflation coming from a rising cost of Labor due to a shortage of Labor"
Pending
Geopolitical situations are expected to become more volatile, despite recent benign outcomes.
"the outcome so far has been surprisingly benign but tougher tests May lie ahead translation geopolitics could become more volatile"
Pending
The full impact of the first interest rate hike will be felt in financial markets within two to three years.
"it takes two to three years for the effects of the First Rate hike to be felt in the financial markets"
Pending
Two scenarios that could negatively impact the global economy are a resurgence in inflation and a hard landing (recession).
"the bis sees two possible scenarios that could drag down the global economy The First is a Resurgence in inflation and the second is a hard Landing AKA a recession"
Pending
Interest rates may be entering a long-term upward trend.
"this suggests that they could be starting a long-term uptrend"
Pending
Following a phase of foreign stocks, commodities are predicted to be the next major investment focus.
"right now we're in the foreign stocks phase can you guess what comes next that's right Commodities again"
Pending
Central banks have learned that prompt and aggressive interest rate hikes are effective in curbing inflation.
"responding to inflation quickly by raising rates aggressively can bring it down"
Pending
The effectiveness of money printing as an economic stimulus has limitations.
"there are limits to how effective money printing is in stimulating the economy"
Pending
Artificially low interest rates lead to the misallocation of capital.
"artificially low interest rates result in capital misallocation"
Pending
Central bank communication has become more complex due to their increased involvement in the daily lives of individuals.
"communication has become more complicated in practical terms central banks have become more involved in the everyday life of the average person"
Pending
There is an increasing risk that central banks could become more politicized and function as an extension of government.
"this increases the risk that they could once again become another arm of government"
Pending
Foreign exchange intervention is a tool that can improve financial stability.
"Forex intervention can enhance Financial stability"
Pending
Artificial intelligence is predicted to impact financial systems, productivity, consumption, investment, and labor markets, with direct consequences for prices and financial stability.
"AI could affect financial systems as well as productivity consumption investment and labor markets which have Direct effects on price and financial stability"
Pending
Central banks fear that AI could lead to excessive deflation, potentially causing the global debt bubble to burst.
"central banks are terrified that AI could cause too much deflation as that would cause the global debt bubble to burst"
Pending
Large Language Models (LLMs) have a 'hallucination problem,' where they can present incorrect information as fact and fabricate supporting sources.
"LMS suffer from the hallucination problem they can present a factually incorrect answer as if it were correct and even invent secondary sources to back up their fake claims"
Pending
AI may be used to assess creditworthiness by analyzing non-financial factors such as educational history and online shopping habits.
"applicants educational history or online shopping habits"
Pending
The control of AI is predicted to become concentrated within a small number of entities.
"AI being controlled by a handful of entities is inevitable"
Pending
Central banks intend to integrate AI into their operational processes.
"central banks plan to use AI as part of their operations"
Pending
Artificial intelligence is expected to contribute to an increase in global productivity.
"AI will help boost Global productivity"
Pending
AI is anticipated to increase, rather than decrease, the demand for labor.
"AI will increase the demand for labor not decrease it"
Pending
Debt and inflation pose significant risks that could lead to considerable market volatility.
"debt and inflation are very real risks and both could create serious Market volatility"
Pending
Government bonds, viewed as the safest financial assets, are frequently used as collateral for loans.
"government bonds are considered to be the safest Financial assets the result is that they're often used as collateral for loans"
Pending
Central banks may need to purchase excess government debt to keep yields low and maintain market stability.
"central banks will have to buy up the excess government debt to ensure that yields stay down and markets stay calm"
Pending
Bitcoin (BTC) prices are expected to react to changes in liquidity with a lag of 6 to 8 weeks.
"BTC prices lag changes in liquidity by 6 to 8 weeks"
Pending
A global shift towards economic nationalism is observed, with most countries adopting this approach.
"most countries appear to be shifting towards a form of economic nationalism"
Pending
Homeownership and starting a family are predicted to become more affordable within the next decade.
"in the next decade buying a house and starting a family will become much more affordable"
Pending
There will be a shift in power dynamics, moving from capital to labor.
"the power will shift from Capital to labor"
Pending
The conditions are being set for a commodity market cycle to emerge in the 2030s.
"this will step the stage for the commodity Market cycle in the 2030s"
Pending
A new generational cycle characterized by genuine growth, prosperity, and equality is expected to follow the current era.
"what comes next will be a new generational cycle of genuine growth prosperity and equality"
Pending