BTC & ETH Price Prediction, SOL Vs. APT, Crypto & Elections With Arthur Hayes!

"and so the US Treasury net took treasury bills which are bonds that mature less than one year have no coupon payment out of circulation and that's what's caused the reverse repo facility which a lot of people have been tracking to basically bottomed uh at the end of March early April and essentially Rose a bit which removed liquidity from the system and basically starting in April we had the weakness in crypto and we haven't really recovered from it since"

"Now that is all starting to change in July and August and September and rest of the year as a treasury has communicated the market that it will now begin reissuing on a net basis treasury bills because it needs to fund the government and my cynical view is that it needs prices of stuff to keep going up into the election in the US"

"the dollar Yen carry trade is beginning to unwind"

"Japan Inc which is you know the Central Bank the boj bank of Japan Japanese corporates Banks Insurance Fund Pension funds households essentially all grouped together have this carry trade on in about 25 trillion US dollars of size"

"the boj had to communicate yes we're going to normalize policy which means we're going to start unwinding this trade by allowing interest rates to rise and raising interest rates and stopping buying of jgbs"

"dollar Yen went from about 155 to I think a low yesterday was 142 Now we're about about 145 right now"

"it wasn't moving from minus 10 basis points to 0% that didn't do it but from going from zero to two 0.25% 25 basis points that was the thing that did it"

"I am 100% confident that Yellen will do whatever is possible to help Cala Harris's re-election chances and that's also you know an essential lynchpin assumption to my belief that the fed and the tras will use some of these esoteric programs that they have been already approved to use like the Central Bank liquidity swamp to essentially print dollars hand it to the boj so the boj can hand out dollars to Banks and corporates to say hey don't sell those Bond those US bonds those US stocks in the open market hand them to me I'll give you last price no Market impact and here are some some dollars go take those dollars sell those buy yen and then come in by these jgbs that I want to sell you too and this kind of like shifts around the exposure between the different entities but at the end of the day the trade doesn't have to unwind the Yen strengthens dollars are printed US markets continue to ramp and you know the Democrats think they can get reelected"

"absolutely people do it's um it's a very standard practice if you run any sort of like you know tradish fund you want to have the cheapest cost of fund that's possible and so if your risk manager allowed and I'm sure there's a lot of funds that do and you have access to Yen from your bank or your broker you're going to borrow that Yen and you're going to fund it and you buy Bitcoin ETFs you'll maybe you'll buy some Bitcoin spot or whatever it is that you can buy in the crypto ecosystem"

"when you have a correlation One Moment Like a massive drisking across the whole financial ecosystem you sell what you can not what you want and so okay crypto's liquid you can sell it immediately"

"if we see S&P and ndaq down 20 to 20 to 30% that's a big deal because if you think about it the the rich baby Boomer voters who got to show up at the election vote democrat or republican are going to be very pissed off at whoever is in charge"

"the US government funds a large part of its revenue from capital gains taxes from basically tech stocks and certain States like California their whole income statement is basically how much money did they make from Tech Bros because their stock portfolios went up and so again if you're seeing stocks down 20 to 30% no one's paying any taxes the deficit is going to explode so the US government needs a higher stock market"

"if we go into Friday and sap and NASDAQ are down 20% from the highs and it's looking like over the weekend it's going to be you know quite volatile opening on Monday then I think we get get some sort of action over the weekend but that depends on Yen"

"if you know this kind of Crisis Fades out nothing really happens things tread water then I think we gotta wait a bit maybe one or two months come into the fall people get comfortable again and then boom it starts again and then that they'll definitely have to act in because they'll be you know few weeks or few days out from the US election"

"so Trump's chance of winning is going to fall so if you are a bitcoiner or a crypto person you said I'm going to buy more crypto because I believe that the US regulatory stance is going to change in a favorable manner to my portfolio and that means I believe that Trump's going to win and look at how amazing he's done but now those those odds are sliding then you're going to become less bullish about doing that"

"the crypto ecosystem or American crypto voters should get paid first right so if you want to support XYZ politician in a you know Congressional senatorial or presidential race well the first question should be what are you going to do right now"

"I believe in the crypto wealth effect yeah bitcoiners will get wealth if we this if this bull market happens bitcoiners will have a lot more Bitcoin and they're going to want to do something with it over and above you know buying bottles at the club and going on a yacht and find a Lambo whatever right so they want some sort of cultural experience or thing that really speaks to them and I think that could be an ordinal it's Bitcoin native it's a digital artifact"

"protocols that pay real money to Traders are trading at insanely low um price to earnings uh multiples"

"my big prediction is the flipping of aptose and and soul in the next two to three years"

"Aptos has signed with some very heavy-hitting trafi um institutions"

"if I am you know another senior executive sitting at one of these Tri institutions where previously it was let's do distributed Ledger technology or private blockchain which is complete [ __ ] but whatever that was the narrative that got me my bonus I used some of these dog [ __ ] crypto companies like R3 and other ones to put these proof of Concepts that never went anywhere doesn't matter now there's something that actually is going to be put on public blockchains I think that's aptose"

"I believe that one of these things will crack the nut and be able to bring you know smart contracts or defi to bitcoin"

"at the end of the day miners need fees right and so same with ordinal people poooo ordinals oh it's just trash that's spam on the blockchain well this trash and spam paid the fees and the whole point is this is an open network that anyone can contribute to when participate and use they're willing to pay so they should be able to use"

"I don't want to become another ethereum which ethereum gave up its moneyness when they decided to bail out the Dow and you know get behind this hard for now it's fine that they did that because I believe that ethereum isn't money it's compute power it's a decentralized computer being money and trying to be the commodity of the funds the decentralized computer"

"Bitcoin my rough Target is 100,000 for Bitcoin"

"e 5,000"

"right now uh Harris slight favorite slight very slight"

"if there's a financial crisis between now and the then you know orange man looks a lot better"

"instead of instead of looking at the prediction markets we should be looking at what the S&P and S&P is doing because that's essentially absolutely what's the S&P what's the price of gas then I'll tell you whenn the election"