BTC & ETH Price Prediction, SOL Vs. APT, Crypto & Elections With Arthur Hayes!
Published: 2024-08-07
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2024-08-07
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will likely hike interest rates by the end of the year.
"obviously they're going to probably hyp at the end of the year as well read the boj"
Pending
The Yen carry trade will structurally unwind over time.
"I think that this is a structural trade that has to go has to unwind over time"
Pending
Yellen and Powell will print dollars, allowing the BOJ to unwind the carry trade and move it to the Fed's balance sheet.
"Yellen and Powell will save the day by printing dollars and allowing the boj to unwind this trade and put it on the feds balance sheet"
Pending
Janet Yellen will ensure dollar printing and market ramping to aid Kamala Harris's re-election, preventing the full unwind of the Yen carry trade, strengthening the Yen, and boosting US markets.
"I am 100% confident that Yellen will do whatever is possible to help Cala Harris's re-election chances and that's also you know an essential lynchpin assumption to my belief that the fed and the tras will use some of these esoteric programs that they have been already approved to use like the Central Bank liquidity swamp to essentially print dollars hand it to the boj so the boj can hand out dollars to Banks and corporates to say hey don't sell those Bond those us bonds those US stocks in the open market hand them to me I'll give you last price no Market impact and here are some some dollars go take those dollars sell those buy yen and then come in by these jgbs that I want to sell you too and this kind of like shifts around the exposure between the different entities but at the end of the day the trade doesn't have to unwind the Yen strengthens dollars are printed us markets continue to ramp and you know the Democrats think they can get reelected"
Pending
If S&P and NASDAQ drop 20% from highs by Friday, action to support markets (and potentially crypto) could occur over the weekend. Otherwise, if the crisis fades, action might be delayed by one or two months into the fall, definitely before the US election.
"if we go into Friday and sap and NASDAQ are down 20% from the highs and it's looking like over the weekend it's going to be you know quite volatile opening on Monday then I think we get get some sort of action over the weekend but that depends on Yen you know I retraced a bit if it comes back down and strengthens some more we get more Equity weakness into the weekend then we could get something in the in the short term if you know this kind of Crisis Fades out nothing really happens things tread water then I think we gotta wait a bit maybe one or two months come into the fall people get comfortable again and then boom it starts again and then that they'll definitely have to act in because they'll be you know few weeks or few days out from the US election and again Harris cannot have going into the you know early November the key cohort of Rich Baby Boomers not feeling good about their stock portfolios that's definitely going to be attributed to her and Joe Biden even if you know it's not their fault"
Pending
In the long term, regardless of who wins the US election (Democrat or Republican), the deficit will rise, money will be printed, global dollar liquidity will increase, and therefore Bitcoin and crypto prices will go up.
"I think that's a bit about what's happening I think in the longer term it doesn't really matter who wins because whether it's a Democrat or Republican person they both will hand out goodies to their constituents the Republicans will cut taxes the de Democrats will do more government welfare at the end of the day the deficit Rises money is printed and borrowed and the denominator of amount of Fiat Global dollar liquidity increas increases therefore Bitcoin and crypto goes up"
Pending
Ordinals will kick off as a significant trend if the anticipated crypto bull market materializes, driven by Bitcoin wealth effect and demand for Bitcoin-native digital artifacts.
"I'm extremely bullish on ordinals because I believe in the crypto wealth effect yeah bitcoiners will get wealth if we this if this bull market happens bitcoiners will have a lot more Bitcoin and they're going to want to do something with it over and above you know buying bottles at the club and going on a yacht and find a Lambo whatever right so they want some sort of cultural experience or thing that really speaks to them and I think that could be an ordinal it's Bitcoin native it's a digital artifact it's distinctly different than an nft which in most cases is a scarce digital token paired with a centralized database holding something uh and so I think this is a trend that's going to really kick off if we really get this bull market that me and a lot of others think is you know on its way to happening"
Pending
Aptos will flip Solana in market capitalization within the next two to three years.
"my big prediction is the flipping of aptose and and soul in the next two to three years"
Pending
Bitcoin will reach a rough target of $100,000 by the end of the year (2024).
"Bitcoin my rough Target is 100,000 for Bitcoin"
Pending
Kamala Harris is a slight favorite to win the US election, but a financial crisis before the election would significantly improve Donald Trump's chances.
"right now uh Harris slight favorite slight very slight um if and if there's a financial crisis between now and the then you know orange man looks a lot better so all the more reason to get you know her people to print the money and ramp the stuff"
Pending
Bitcoin L2s will be a key piece for Bitcoin's future, enabling smart contracts and DeFi, driving fees for miners, and making Bitcoin more usable without compromising its moneyness and security.
"I believe that one of these things will crack the nut and be able to bring you know smart contracts or defi to bitcoin and obviously this is the biggest ecosystem noce some reticence that for that from some core developers I get it you know security is Paramount on on the network but at the end of the day miners need fees right and so same with ordinal people poooo ordinals oh it's just trash that's spam on the blockchain well this trash and spam paid the fees and the whole point is this is an open network that anyone can contribute to when participate and use they're willing to pay so they should be able to use so we need to create a similar sort of way for applications to exist on chain and pay fees for usage so I'm absolutely think that this is a key piece to bitcoin going forward and becoming more usable as long as we don't compromise on sort of the moneyness and security"
Pending