BTC & ETH Price Prediction, SOL Vs. APT, Crypto & Elections With Arthur Hayes!

"Now that is all starting to change in July and August and September and rest of the year as a treasury has communicated the market that it will now begin reissuing on a net basis treasury bills because it needs to fund the government and my cynical view is that it needs prices of stuff to keep going up into the election in the US"

"the boj had to communicate yes we're going to normalize policy which means we're going to start unwinding this trade by allowing interest rates to rise and raising interest rates and stopping buying of jgbs"

"I am 100% confident that Yellen will do whatever is possible to help Cala Harris's re-election chances and that's also you know an essential lynchpin assumption to my belief that the fed and the tras will use some of these esoteric programs that they have been already approved to use like the Central Bank liquidity swamp to essentially print dollars hand it to the boj so the boj can hand out dollars to Banks and corporates to say hey don't sell those Bond those US bonds those US stocks in the open market hand them to me I'll give you last price no Market impact and here are some some dollars go take those dollars sell those buy yen and then come in by these jgbs that I want to sell you too and this kind of like shifts around the exposure between the different entities but at the end of the day the trade doesn't have to unwind the Yen strengthens dollars are printed US markets continue to ramp and you know the Democrats think they can get reelected"

"if we see S&P and ndaq down 20 to 20 to 30% that's a big deal because if you think about it the the rich baby Boomer voters who got to show up at the election vote democrat or republican are going to be very pissed off at whoever is in charge"

"the US government funds a large part of its revenue from capital gains taxes from basically tech stocks and certain States like California their whole income statement is basically how much money did they make from Tech Bros because their stock portfolios went up and so again if you're seeing stocks down 20 to 30% no one's paying any taxes the deficit is going to explode so the US government needs a higher stock market"

"if we go into Friday and sap and NASDAQ are down 20% from the highs and it's looking like over the weekend it's going to be you know quite volatile opening on Monday then I think we get get some sort of action over the weekend but that depends on Yen"

"if you know this kind of Crisis Fades out nothing really happens things tread water then I think we gotta wait a bit maybe one or two months come into the fall people get comfortable again and then boom it starts again and then that they'll definitely have to act in because they'll be you know few weeks or few days out from the US election"

"so Trump's chance of winning is going to fall so if you are a bitcoiner or a crypto person you said I'm going to buy more crypto because I believe that the US regulatory stance is going to change in a favorable manner to my portfolio and that means I believe that Trump's going to win and look at how amazing he's done but now those those odds are sliding then you're going to become less bullish about doing that"

"I believe in the crypto wealth effect yeah bitcoiners will get wealth if we this if this bull market happens bitcoiners will have a lot more Bitcoin and they're going to want to do something with it over and above you know buying bottles at the club and going on a yacht and find a Lambo whatever right so they want some sort of cultural experience or thing that really speaks to them and I think that could be an ordinal it's Bitcoin native it's a digital artifact"

"my big prediction is the flipping of aptose and and soul in the next two to three years"

"if I am you know another senior executive sitting at one of these Tri institutions where previously it was let's do distributed Ledger technology or private blockchain which is complete [ __ ] but whatever that was the narrative that got me my bonus I used some of these dog [ __ ] crypto companies like R3 and other ones to put these proof of Concepts that never went anywhere doesn't matter now there's something that actually is going to be put on public blockchains I think that's aptose"

"I believe that one of these things will crack the nut and be able to bring you know smart contracts or defi to bitcoin"

"Bitcoin my rough Target is 100,000 for Bitcoin"

"e 5,000"

"if there's a financial crisis between now and the then you know orange man looks a lot better"