Predictions from this Video

Total: 12
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 12
Prediction
Topic
Status
Recession likely to happen not long after the FED starts cutting rates (after 2024-09-25).
"historically speaking recessions tend to happen not long after the FED starts cutting rates"
US Economy
Pending
US interest rates to fall to around 3% in the coming years (by end of 2026) and remain at that level long-term.
"most fed officials see interest rates falling down to around 3% in the coming years and staying at those levels in the long term"
US Interest Rates
Pending
FED will continue cutting interest rates significantly if inflation continues falling or unemployment continues rising (in the near future, within 2024-2025).
"the FED will continue cutting interest rates bigly if either of these two happens"
US Interest Rates
Pending
FED to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the next two meetings, reaching 4.5% by end of 2024.
"fed members expect interest rates to be at around 4.5% at the end of the year and given that there are two more fed meetings left between now and then this implies a 25 basis point cut at each one"
US Interest Rates
Pending
US long-term interest rates will continue to face upward pressure due to FED balance sheet runoff, despite falling short-term rates (in the foreseeable future, within 2024-2025).
"the FED will keep selling assets from its balance sheet for the foreseeable future. this is extremely significant because it means that long-term interest rates will continue facing upside pressure even while short-term rates are falling"
US Long-term Interest Rates
Pending
US unemployment rate could start falling again in the not too distant future (within 2024-2025).
"the influx of illegal immigration has reportedly declined in recent months this means that unemployment could actually start falling again in the not to distant future"
US Unemployment Rate
Pending
US interest rates are unlikely to return to zero and could potentially remain higher or even continue to rise (long-term, beyond 2025).
"Jerome said that he personally doesn't see interest rates going back to zero but admitted there was no way of knowing for sure this ties into what I mentioned earlier and that's that we could be in an era of higher interest rates and possibly even one where interest rates keep going higher"
US Interest Rates
Pending
The US economy will likely avoid recession as long as government spending continues indefinitely (long-term, beyond 2025).
"so long as the US government continues spending then it will be very hard for the US economy to fall into recession and it's safe to assume this spending will continue indefinitely"
US Economy
Pending
Short-term rate cuts are likely to boost markets, especially small-cap stocks and altcoins (within 2024-2025).
"in the short term rate cuts are likely to boost the markets particularly small cap stocks as they the most sensitive to interest rates the same is true for cryptocurrencies particularly altcoins"
Markets
Pending
In the longer term, FED rate cuts risk reigniting inflation, which could lead to higher interest rates (beyond 2025).
"in the longer term the fed's rate Cuts risk reigniting inflation which in turn risks sending interest rates higher"
Markets
Pending
A financial crisis could occur under a potential Trump administration (if elected in 2024, the crisis would be in 2025 or later).
"it's not far-fetched to assert that they're setting the stage for a financial crisis to happen under Trump's watch if he's elected"
Financial Crisis
Pending
The year 2025 will be 'wild' for the US economy.
"2025 is going to be absolutely wild"
US Economy
Pending