ilmscore | Crypto Adoption Hits Record Highs: a16z's Latest Predictions

Predictions from this Video

Total: 21
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 21
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
A16z estimates there are between 30 to 60 million real monthly transacting users in crypto.
"after applying these and other criteria to their data a16z identified between 30 to 60 million real monthly transacting users"
Real User Adoption
Pending
Annualized stablecoin transaction volume is projected to reach $34 trillion, more than double Visa's transaction volume in the same period.
"in Q2 of this year 8.5 trillion was transacted in stable coins that's more than double the 3.9 trillion in transactions processed by Visa in the same 3month period if you annualize this figure you get 34 trillion dollar in stable coin transaction volume over a year"
Stablecoin Transaction Volume
Pending
Stablecoin issuers collectively are the 19th largest holder of US Government debt.
"stable coin issuers in aggregate are now the 19th biggest holder of US Government debt in the world"
Stablecoin Holdings of US Debt
Pending
USDC may gain market share from USDT if it becomes the preferred choice in regions where USDT faces compliance issues.
"its lead over Circle could shrink if usdc becomes the default choice in jurisdictions where usdt is deemed non-compliant"
USDC vs USDT Competition
Pending
Since November 2022, the Argentine Peso has lost 82% of its USD purchasing power, while peso to stablecoin trading volume has surged over 10,000%.
"the graph shows that since November 2022 the purchasing power of the peso measured in US Dollars has fallen by 82% whereas pzo to stable coin trading volume has increased by more than 10,000%"
Argentinian Stablecoin Adoption
Pending
Cross-border CBDC development between banks has doubled since the start of the war.
"the number of cbdc developments between banks have doubled since the War Began"
CBDC Development
Pending
Layer 2 solutions have reduced transaction fees by over 99%, with sending USDC on Base costing less than a penny on average.
"since then layer 2s have slashed transaction fee costs by over 99% it now costs less than a penny on average to send usdc via base"
Layer 2 Transaction Fees
Pending
Blockchain throughput has increased 50x compared to four years ago.
"blockchains now process 50 times as many transactions per second as they did 4 years ago"
Blockchain Throughput Increase
Pending
The combined Total Value Locked (TVL) for high-throughput, non-EVM chains like Near, Ton, Aptos, Sui, and Solana grew from around $1 billion in 2023 to $15 billion in 2024.
"throughout 2023 their combined tbll languished around $1 billion in 2024 however saw a dramatic change in fortunes with combined tvl ripping to $15 billion"
High Throughput Non-EVM Chains TVL Growth
Pending
Ethereum leads builder interest at 20.8%, followed by Solana (11.2%) and Base (10.7%).
"ethereum dominance is at 20.8% salana is second with 11.2% and Bas is close behind with 10.7%"
Builder Interest in Blockchains
Pending
Base has achieved significant adoption among L2s, surpassing others just 14 months after its launch.
"it's pretty impressive to see how base has managed to LeapFrog all of its al2 Brethren just 14 months after going live"
Base L2 Adoption
Pending
Polygon continues to attract more developer interest than other L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism.
"polygon was the first widely adopted L2 and it's still attracting more developer interest than arbitrum optimism or any of the other shiny new l2s that nobody asked for"
Polygon Developer Interest
Pending
Solana's builder interest has more than doubled since 2023, increasing its dominance from 5.1%.
"salana is up huge more than doubling the 5.1% dominance it commanded in 2023"
Solana Builder Interest Growth
Pending
Ethereum's share of builder interest has increased by 1.1%, exceeding the growth of most L2s except for Base.
"ethereum's share has also increased by 1.1 % an increase bigger than the l2s apart from base"
Ethereum Builder Interest Growth
Pending
Developer activity in blockchain infrastructure has grown to 19.1%, a 2.7% increase from the previous year.
"blockchain infrastructure is booming with developer activity accounting for 19.1% of developer activity this is is notably up 2.7% since last year"
Developer Activity in Blockchain Infrastructure
Pending
DeFi leads in builder activity with 24.8% of all projects, experiencing a 3.5% year-over-year growth, making it the fastest-growing category.
"the top sector is D5 which accounts for 24.8 8% of all projects being built this is up 3.5% since last year making defi also the fastest growing category for builder activity"
Developer Activity in DeFi
Pending
Within DeFi, Real World Assets (RWA), payments, and exchanges are the fastest-growing subcategories.
"within the defi category real world assets payments and exchanges were the hottest categories"
DeFi Subcategories Growth
Pending
DeFi usage accounts for 34% of daily active addresses, slightly higher than stablecoin usage at 32%.
"34% of all daily active addresses were associated with defi usage compared to 32% with stable coin use"
DeFi vs Stablecoin Usage
Pending
The share of spot trading volume on Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) has nearly tripled since DeFi Summer 2020, reaching 15% in 2023.
"since the peak of defi summer the share of spot trading volume taking place on Dex is almost tripled to 15% by 2023"
DEX vs CEX Trading Volume Share
Pending
The aggregate demand for ETH from fees on L2s could potentially offset the reduced fee activity on Ethereum's mainnet, as most L2s utilize ETH for fees and collateral.
"almost every single layer two on ethereum leverages eth for fees and also as collateral in its D5 protocols with enough adoption it's possible that the aggregate demand for eth arising from fees on its layer 2os will be enough to offset the absence of fee activity on the layer one"
Impact of L2s on ETH Demand
Pending
Demand for ETH as collateral on Ethereum's L2s is expected to significantly exceed demand on the mainnet due to lower fees on L2s.
"it's likely that the aggregate demand for E's use as collateral on ethereum's layer 2os will far outweigh the same kind of Demand on ethereum itself precisely because ethereum has high fees and ethereum's layer 2s do not"
ETH Collateral Demand on L2s
Pending