Based on historical data, a recession is expected to start approximately 1.5 years after a yield curve inversion. The yield curve inverted in early to mid-2022, suggesting a recession could occur around late 2023 or early 2024.
"generally it takes about a year and a half from when the yield curve converts to an actual recession starting it's been about a year and a half since the yield curve inverted back in the early to middle part of 2022."
