ilmscore | Jamie Dimon: The Markets Are WRONG About A Soft Landing (PREPARE NOW)

Predictions from this Video

Total: 11
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 11
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Jamie Diamond believes Wall Street is overly optimistic about avoiding a US recession and achieving a soft economic landing.
"Jamie Diamond just said that Wall Street is too hopeful that our economy is going to avoid a recession and see a soft Landing."
US Economy
Pending
Jamie Diamond estimates the probability of a US economic soft landing to be around 35-40%, significantly lower than the 70-80% priced in by investors.
"investors are pricing in a 70 to 80% chance of a soft Landing where Jamie Diamond says he thinks it's closer to half that."
US Economy
Pending
The commercial real estate market, particularly office spaces, will face significant loan readjustments in 2024 and 2025. Landlords with high vacancy rates and rising interest rates will experience financial difficulties.
"2024 is the first year of this kind of tidal wave of loans readjusting in the office Market we'll see more loans readjust in 2025 which means now if you an office landlord and you're sitting on a property worth $10 million $100 million a billion do well if that property is 50% vacant you're not making as much money as you would like and if now your interest rates readjust on your debt well that means your costs are probably going to go up a lot because interest rates are a whole lot higher today than what they were a few years ago so now if you're an office landlord and interest rates start to readjust at a time where your revenues are not very high you can start to see why that's a problem"
Commercial Real Estate
Pending
Jamie Diamond believes Wall Street is overly optimistic about avoiding a US recession and achieving a soft economic landing.
"Jamie Diamond just said that Wall Street is too hopeful that our economy is going to avoid a recession and see a soft Landing."
US Economy
Pending
A combination of rising interest rates and a recession will lead to real estate problems, with certain banks being more heavily impacted than others.
"if rates go up and we have a recession there will be real estate problems and some banks will have a much bigger real estate problem than others"
Commercial Real Estate
Pending
Jamie Diamond estimates the probability of a US economic soft landing is closer to 35-40%, significantly lower than the 70-80% priced in by investors.
"investors are pricing in a 70 to 80% chance of a soft Landing where Jamie Diamond says he thinks it's closer to half that"
US Economy
Pending
US debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 130% by 1935, indicating a significant 'hockey stick' growth trend that has not yet begun.
"I think 1935 it's going to be 130% and it's a hockey stick so that hockey stick doesn't start yet we kind of got time"
US Government Debt
Pending
A significant wave of commercial real estate loans will begin to readjust in 2024 and continue into 2025.
"2024 is the first year of this kind of tidal wave of loans readjusting in the office Market we'll see more loans readjust in 2025"
Commercial Real Estate Market
Pending
A significant amount of US government debt held by foreign entities ($7 trillion) could lead to a 'rebellion' in global markets.
"markets around the world around the world by the way because you know foreigners own you know7 trillion dollar of of US Government debt there will be a rebellion"
Global Markets
Pending
An increase in interest rates combined with a recession will lead to problems in the real estate market, with certain banks being more significantly affected than others.
"if rates go up and we have a recession there will be real estate problems and some banks will have a much bigger real estate problem than others"
Commercial Real Estate Market
Pending
US debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 130% by 1935 (assuming this is a typo and meant for a future year, as 1935 is in the past).
"I think 1935 it's going to be 130% [debt to GDP]"
US Government Debt
Pending