ilmscore | The Fed Just Confirmed It: Americans Are Poorer In 2024

Predictions from this Video

Total: 7
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 7
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Federal Reserve Bank plans to cut interest rates in September.
"the Federal Reserve Bank has said that they want to cut interest rates this September."
Interest Rates
Pending
Anticipating Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates have fallen, leading to a 16% week-over-week increase in mortgage refinancing applications.
"in anticipation of the Federal Reserve Bank cutting interest rates, we've already seen mortgage rates fall. ... we just saw a boom in refinancing applications. Week over week, we saw refinancing applications, mortgage refinancing applications jump by 16%."
Mortgage Refinancing
Pending
The speaker will monitor the impact of falling mortgage rates and increased cash-out refinances on consumer spending and inflation.
"And so now as we see refinancing rates drop or refinancing rates jump because mortgage rates have been falling, it poses an interesting dynamic because one thing that I'm going to keep my eye on is how that will affect spending and if that impacts inflation at all."
Cash-out Refinance Spending
Pending
The speaker is observing how potential interest rate drops will influence the economy, spending, and future Federal Reserve actions.
"if we do see interest rates stop start to drop, how will that affect the economy? How will that affect spending? And how will that affect what the Federal Reserve Bank does?"
Federal Reserve Policy
Pending
If inflation decreases while the economy grows due to increased consumer spending, the Federal Reserve may become less aggressive in cutting interest rates.
"if inflation comes down, which is what we've been seeing happen while the economy still is growing, because if more people start spending money and we start to see more economic growth again, well, maybe the Federal Reserve Bank won't need to be as aggressive to cut interest rates"
Economic Growth and Inflation
Pending
Lower interest rates are predicted to cause cash to lose value, leading to increased investment in assets, rising asset prices, and higher inflation.
"A lower interest rate means well, if you're sitting on cash, your cash is losing value. You're going to want to dump the cash into assets. Lower interest rates generally mean asset prices rise. Lower interest rates generally mean that inflation goes higher."
Asset Prices and Inflation
Pending
The Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting interest rates too early to avoid reigniting inflation.
"the Federal Reserve Bank doesn't want to trigger another inflation spike by cutting interest rates too soon."
Federal Reserve and Inflation Risk
Pending