ilmscore | It's Official: Interest Rate Cuts Are (Almost) Here

Predictions from this Video

Total: 16
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 16
Prediction
Topic
Status
When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, interest rates on savings accounts (including high yield) and CDs are expected to decrease.
"So now if you were to put your money in the bank, whether it's in a high yield savings account, a regular savings account, a certificate of deposit, CD, now those rates are going to fall."
Savings Account Interest Rates
Pending
A decrease in Federal Reserve interest rates is likely to lead to lower mortgage rates, car loan rates, refinance rates, and credit card debt rates, with the intention of stimulating consumer spending.
"But if mortgage rates get affected by this, which they very likely would, that means that mortgage rates could go down, your car loan rates could go down, your refinance rates could go down, your credit card debt rates could go down, which the purpose behind this is to stimulate spending."
Mortgage Rates
Pending
In 2024-2025, corporations and commercial landlords face the risk of their debt readjusting to much higher interest rates (potentially 8%), which could double their debt servicing costs.
"And in 2024, 2025, that debt might be readjusting. At what interest rate? Well, it's going to depend on what the Federal Reserve Bank does. But today, every corporation and every commercial landlord is saying, "Oh my god, I really don't want to have to pay 8% on this same debt because that's going to make our monthly payments double even if we don't increase how much debt we have just because the cost of servicing the debt goes up.""
Commercial Real Estate Debt
Pending
The Federal Reserve has officially signaled that interest rate cuts are imminent.
"But now the Federal Reserve Bank has made it essentially official that they're going to be cutting interest rates soon."
Federal Reserve Interest Rates
Pending
Jerome Powell stated that falling inflation and rising unemployment are reasons to begin cutting interest rates to prevent further economic decline.
"Now, because of inflation coming down, because unemployment is going up, this is why Jerome Powell says that it is time to start cutting interest rates as a way to not let the economy get any worse."
Interest Rates
Pending
Interest rates on savings accounts and new Certificates of Deposit (CDs) are expected to fall when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
"So if you're sitting on cash, not so good news. However, if you already have money in a CD, it wouldn't be affected. If you've locked in that rate, but if you want to get a new CD, the new rates after the rates get cut could be lower."
Savings Account Rates
Pending
Falling interest rates are predicted to lead to lower rates for mortgages, car loans, refinances, and credit card debt, aiming to stimulate consumer spending.
"But if mortgage rates get affected by this, which they very likely would, that means that mortgage rates could go down, your car loan rates could go down, your refinance rates could go down, your credit card debt rates could go down, which the purpose behind this is to stimulate spending."
Mortgage Rates
Pending
Inflation is desired by the government to devalue the US national debt of $35 trillion, allowing it to be repaid with cheaper dollars.
"The government wants inflation because they have $35 trillion worth of national debt. And inflation means that the value of the dollars are dropping, which means the value of this $35 trillion with the debt goes down because the government can then pay it back with cheaper dollars."
US National Debt
Pending
The S&P 500 has outperformed growth in incomes and expenses over the past five years.
"The S&P 500 has grown even faster than that. The S&P 500 has grown faster than people's incomes. The S&P 500 has grown faster than expenses."
S&P 500 Growth
Pending
Low interest rates are expected to foster the growth of 'zombie companies' (unprofitable companies sustained by debt and investment).
"And then you start to see the growth of things like zombie companies. Zombie companies are companies that don't make money, but they're continuing to operate because they have access to a lot of debt and a lot of venture capital and a lot of angel capital because investors have just a lot of money to spend."
Zombie Companies
Pending
Corporate debt taken out in 2020-2021 at low interest rates is projected to readjust to higher rates in 2024-2025, depending on Federal Reserve actions.
"Meaning, if you are a corporation and you have $100 million worth of debt, you might only be paying 3 or 4% a year in interest because you could get that very cheap debt back in 2020 or 2021. And in 2024, 2025, that debt might be readjusting. At what interest rate? Well, it's going to depend on what the Federal Reserve Bank does."
Commercial Real Estate Debt
Pending
Commercial and corporate debts taken out in 2020-2021 at low interest rates are due for readjustment in 2024 and 2025.
"Well, 2024 is when those debts start to readjust. Meaning, if you are a corporation and you have $100 million worth of debt, you might only be paying 3 or 4% a year in interest because you could get that very cheap debt back in 2020 or 2021. And in 2024, 2025, that debt might be readjusting."
Commercial Real Estate Debt
Pending
The Federal Reserve has shifted its stance, now indicating that inflation trending towards 2% is sufficient justification for cutting interest rates, rather than waiting for 2% inflation to be achieved.
"The Federal Reserve Bank said that they're not going to cut interest rates until we see 2% inflation, but they changed their mind. Now they're saying they just want to see inflation heading towards 2% to then justify cutting interest rates."
Interest Rates
Pending
The Federal Reserve has officially signaled that interest rate cuts are imminent.
"But now the Federal Reserve Bank has made it essentially official that they're going to be cutting interest rates soon."
Interest Rates
Pending
Jerome Powell has stated that the time has come to begin cutting interest rates.
"Jerome Powell himself now says that it is time to start cutting interest rates."
Interest Rates
Pending
The upcoming US election in 2024 is noted to have an impact on the Federal Reserve.
"Of course, we also have an election coming later in 2024 which impacts the Federal Reserve Bank."
US Elections
Pending