ilmscore | The Fed Just Made The Regular American Poorer

The Fed Just Made The Regular American Poorer

Predictions from this Video

Total: 10
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 10
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Federal Reserve committed to cutting interest rates by 0.5% in 2024, four times in 2025, and two times in 2026.
"They committed to cutting interest rates by another half a percent in 2024. They said they want to cut interest rates four times in 2025. And then they said they want to cut interest rates another two times in 2026."
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts
Pending
The first wave of commercial real estate debt readjustments occurred in 2024, with a larger wave expected in 2025.
"And so now we have the first wave of debts starting to readjust in 2024. and we have a larger wave of debt starting to readjust in 2025."
Commercial Real Estate Debt Maturities
Pending
The Federal Reserve Bank plans to cut interest rates by 0.5% in 2024, four times in 2025, and two times in 2026.
"They committed to cutting interest rates by another half a percent in 2024. They said they want to cut interest rates four times in 2025. And then they said they want to cut interest rates another two times in 2026."
Interest Rate Cuts
Pending
A wave of commercial real estate debt is set to readjust in 2024, with a larger wave in 2025.
"The first wave of debts starting to readjust in 2024. and we have a larger wave of debt starting to readjust in 2025."
Commercial Real Estate Debt
Pending
Between 2019 and 2024, median US income increased by 14%, while reported inflation was 23%.
"Between 2019 and 2024, the median income went up by 14% in America. Reported inflation between 2019 and 2024 is 23%."
Inflation
Pending
US government's national interest payments are projected to exceed military expenses.
"The national interest payments for the government are higher than our military expenses."
National Debt Payments
Pending
Lower interest rates are predicted to lead to an increase in 'zombie companies' – businesses that do not generate profits or have a clear path to profitability.
"When interest rates are cheap, institutions start to borrow more money... And when you can borrow money cheaper, you can make riskier bets. And when you can make riskier bets, you can also make stupider bets, which means you start to see the growth of more zombie companies, more companies that don't make any money and don't have a path towards profitability."
Zombie Companies
Pending
In 2020, a 1.5% Fed rate cut led to a 16% S&P 500 increase. In 2019, a 0.75% Fed rate cut resulted in an S&P 500 increase of over 28%.
"In 2020, we had two emergency rate cuts when the pandemic happened. The Fed cut interest rates by 1 and a.5% and the stock market rose by 16% over the year. In 2019, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.75% and we saw the stock market, the S&P 500 rise by just over 28%."
S&P 500 Performance during Rate Cuts
Pending
In 2008, a 4.25% Fed rate cut coincided with a 38.5% drop in the S&P 500. In 2001, a 4.75% Fed rate cut preceded a 9.1% decline in the S&P 500.
"2008, the Fed cut interest rates by 4 and a/4%. The stock market fell by 38.5%. In 2001, the Fed cut rates by 4.75%. The S&P 500 fell by 9.1%."
S&P 500 Performance during Rate Cuts
Pending
The economy is entering a new phase characterized by the Federal Reserve Bank's commitment to cutting interest rates.
"we are entering a new phase in the economy now with the Federal Reserve Bank committed to cutting interest rates."
Economy and Investment
Pending