ilmscore | PREPARE: Rate Cuts Coming On November 7th

PREPARE: Rate Cuts Coming On November 7th

Predictions from this Video

Total: 9
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 9
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Markets anticipate a 99% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on November 7th.
"the Federal Reserve Bank is going to announce on November 7th what they want to do with interest rates. Now, the markets have already priced in a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve Bank is going to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, meaning 0.25%."
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts
Pending
Unless the Federal Reserve deviates from market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, significant changes in mortgage or car loan rates are unlikely. The focus should be on the Fed's forward guidance.
"So unless the Fed does something different, you might not see a big drop in mortgage rates or car loan rates. And this is where the bigger thing that you want to pay attention to isn't just what the Fed does. Unless the Fed does something different than what everybody expects, but what you want to pay attention to this week is going to be what the Federal Reserve Bank says about what's coming."
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts
Pending
The Federal Reserve may either signal more aggressive interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy despite strong numbers, or indicate less aggressive cuts due to a stronger-than-expected economy and job market, which would impact markets.
"the Federal Reserve Bank may say that they want to be more aggressive with interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy even though we keep getting very strong economic numbers. Or the Federal Reserve Bank might say the economy is stronger than we thought. The job market is stronger than we thought and we may not need to be as aggressive with our interest rate cuts which would definitely shake up markets and shake up the economy"
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy
Pending
401k contribution limits will increase from $23,000 in 2024 to $23,500 in 2025 due to inflation.
"they're going to increase your contribution limits for your 401k. In fact, they're going to increase the cap of how much you can invest in your 401k from $23,000 a year in 2024 to $23,500 in 2025. So, you can invest an additional $500 next year because of inflation."
401k Contribution Limits
Pending
IRA annual contribution limits will remain unchanged at $7,000 in 2025 compared to 2024.
"The annual contribution limit on your IRA next year is going to be $7,000, which is the same as what it is in 2024."
IRA Contribution Limits
Pending
Between 2021 and early 2024, reported inflation outpaced incomes, but currently, reported incomes are rising faster than reported inflation.
"the reported rate of inflation has grown faster than incomes. The reason why that's a problem is because today the talk is incomes, reported incomes are rising faster than reported inflation."
Inflation and Incomes
Pending
Reported inflation from 2019 to today is approximately 23%, but actual price increases for necessities like groceries, housing, rent, and car insurance have significantly exceeded this average over the last five years.
"the reported inflation between 2019 to today is about 23%. Which means if you could buy a grocery list for $100, you buy your groceries for $100 in 2019, today it should cost you less than $124. But what we know is that the prices of many things have grown significantly faster than that. Especially the prices of things that many people need. For example, many people have seen their grocery costs rise more than 23% over the last 5 years. For example, the cost of housing has grown by 50 to 65% over the last 5 years. Not to mention rent costs have also increased. Not to mention that car insurance prices have increased by around 50% over the last five years."
Real Inflation Impact
Pending
Republican presidencies tend to favor investment in defense, oil and gas, and financial deregulation. Democratic presidencies tend to increase spending in healthcare (Medicare/Medicaid) and alternative/green energy sectors.
"generally when a Republican wins, we will see more investment in certain industries. For example, defense companies, for example, oil and gas companies, for example, deregulation in financial industries. We also know that generally when a Democrat wins, we see investment into other industries. For example, we generally see an expansion of things like Medicare and Medicaid, which would mean more spending into those health care companies that benefit from that. We also generally see more investment into alternative energies, green energies, non oil and gas energies"
Investment Opportunities by Political Party
Pending
Historically, markets have risen and fallen under both Democratic and Republican presidents.
"We have seen markets rise under Democratic presidents. We have seen markets rise under Republican presidents. We have seen markets fall under Democratic presidents. We have seen markets fall under Republican presidents."
Market Performance and Presidential Administrations
Pending