The Fed JUST Issued An Economic Warning...
Published: 2024-12-07
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-12-07
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The US federal budget is currently on an unsustainable path.
"the United States federal budget is on an unsustainable path."
Pending
US national debt has exceeded $36 trillion.
"the United States national debt just passed $36 trillion for the first time ever."
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2024 will see the third largest national deficit in US history.
"In 2024, we are going to have the third largest national deficit in the history of time."
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There may be fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than previously anticipated.
"maybe this means that we're going to see less interest rate cuts come in 2025"
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The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as aggressively in the coming year.
"Jerome Powell is kind of hinting that maybe we won't be cutting interest rates as aggressively next year"
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The Federal Reserve has indicated they will cut interest rates again soon.
"they've essentially confirmed that they're going to be cutting interest rates again."
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The US government is running large budget deficits during a period of full employment and strong growth, and this issue needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.
"We are running, this is the United States government, very large budget deficits at a time of full employment and strong growth. So, we need to address that. And we've got to do it sooner or later. And sooner is better than later."
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2024 is projected to have the third largest national deficit in American history.
"Remember 2024 is the third largest national deficit in the history of American history."
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Recessions occur approximately once per decade, with an average of more than one per decade over the last 100 years.
"Recessions have happened in the past. We've seen a recession pretty much every decade for the last century. In fact, we've seen about 16 recessions over the last 100 years, which means we're averaging more than one recession per decade."
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US government spending on interest for its debt has surpassed spending on the military.
"the United States government is spending more taxes on their interest on their debt than they are on the military."
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Between 1971 and 2021, stock market returns (approximately 4000%) significantly outpaced income growth (approximately 600%).
"If we take a look at the last five decades, between 1971 to 2021, incomes have risen by around 600%, but the stock market has risen by around 4,000%."
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The US national deficit in 2024 will be the third largest in history.
"In 2024, we are going to have the third largest national deficit in the history of time."
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The US government is spending heavily despite strong employment and economic conditions, which is presented as a problem.
"And this is coming at a time of strong employment. The job market is still strong and the economy is still strong. So why is the government spending so much money?"
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Jerome Powell is hinting at fewer interest rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with President-elect Trump's desire for more aggressive cuts, suggesting potential conflict between the Fed and the incoming administration.
"We are going to see less interest rate cuts come in 2025, which of course is very interesting as well because President-elect Trump is going to be entering the White House in January and he has been very adamant on wanting lower interest rates. Now, of course, the White House doesn't set interest rates. It's the Federal Reserve Bank. And the Federal Reserve Bank, although they're called the Federal Reserve Bank, they're technically not Federal... but they do have the ability to set interest rates and they're not supposed to be influenced by who's in the White House. And so this is where Jerome Powell is kind of hinting that maybe we won't be cutting interest rates as aggressively next year, but President-elect Trump wants more aggressive interest rate cuts."
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Jerome Powell states that the US government is running large budget deficits during a period of full employment and strong growth, and this needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.
"We are running, this is the United States government, very large budget deficits at a time of full employment and strong growth. So, we need to address that. And we've got to do it sooner or later. And sooner is better than later."
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The speaker predicts that recessions will continue to occur, averaging more than one per decade based on historical data.
"Recessions happen. Recessions have happened in the past. We've seen a recession pretty much every decade for the last century. In fact, we've seen about 16 recessions over the last 100 years, which means we're averaging more than one recession per decade."
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US government spending on interest payments for its debt has surpassed spending on the military, which is identified as a problem.
"And the United States government is spending more taxes on their interest on their debt than they are on the military. That's a problem."
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Over the past five years, the stock market has grown significantly more than incomes (90% vs. <20%), and over the past five decades, stock market growth has far outpaced income growth (4000% vs. 600%).
"If we take a look at incomes over the last five years, incomes have risen by less than 20%, the stock market has risen by around 90%. If we took at the last five decades, between 1971 to 2021, incomes have risen by around 600%, but the stock market has risen by around 4,000%."
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