ARE YOU READY For What Day Trading Will Look Like in 2025?
Published: 2024-11-02
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-11-02
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The speaker anticipates significant changes in day trading over the next year and intends to provide guidance on adapting strategies to capitalize on these shifts.
"I'm going to share with you the changes that I'm expecting to see in the world of day trading over the next year and I'm going to walk you through step by step how you can optimize and adapt your strategy so you can capitalize on the opportunities that I'm expecting to see."
Pending
The speaker observed a shift in their trading routine starting in 2020, moving their start time earlier to monitor pre-market stock movements and identify top gainers.
"and so in 2020 when I would sit down each day my daily routine has been essentially the same for my entire career but the time that I begin my routine has changed and this is an area where I had to evolve and where I expect to see continued changes in the market and so what I would do back in 2019 and in January for instance of 2020 just before we had this change I would sit down at around 9:00 a.m. I would sit down at 9:00 a.m. I would pull up my scanners and I would look to see which stocks were gapping up the most in the market"
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Before 2020, pre-market trading volume was very low and largely unknown to most traders. The speaker highlights a significant change that occurred in January 2020.
"and so back in January of 2020 I would sit down at around 9:00 a.m. and I would see these stocks that were on the scanners except the volume column right here most of the stocks on the scan had volume kind of like this maybe 10,000 shares 15,000 shares there there was simply no volume at that time most Traders didn't even know that you could trade pre-market and if you could they didn't know how to because you had to actually go in and manually change your order type from regular trading hours to extended hours and so if you tried to place an order without changing the order setting your order would just get rejected and most people thought well it's because the market hasn't opened that's why I can't trade yet but then something happened so in 2020 in January"
Pending
The pandemic in 2020 led to a surge in retail trading participation, resulting in significant pre-market volume for stocks with news catalysts at the 9:30 AM opening bell.
"so in 2020 during the pandemic all of a sudden we were in the middle of a lockdown right everyone was had to be at home and everyone had to wear masks and da d d da and so a lot of people started trading they were watching the market and so when the bell would ring at 9:30 the stocks that were the leading percentage gainers that had a news Catalyst would get this surge of volume it was unbelievable"
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The predictability of stock movements at the 9:30 AM open, driven by breaking news, led traders to begin entering positions as early as 9:25 AM and progressively earlier, marking a shift towards pre-market trading.
"and then it became such a predictable pattern that some people decided I'm going to get in before the bell rings I'm going to get in at 925 because why I know it's going to happen so I'm going to get in early and I remember the first day it happened the first day it happened I was sitting here and I saw a stock that was already on my watch list I loved it and it started to pull away and I said if I don't get in here I'm going to miss it and so I punched the order and I was just like that trading pre-market I took I broke the ice and took my first trade pre-market and very quickly what happened was Traders realized you know if I'm going to start at 925 I might as well start at 920 might as well start at 915 might as well start at 910"
Pending
The speaker's trading data shows a significant increase in pre-market profitability from May 2020 onwards, with profits rising from $12,000 to $119,000 over a two-week period, indicating a substantial shift in their trading window.
"so all of a sudden from 8:00 a.m. now the distribution of Trades is moving forward we go another couple weeks so how much was that in total so the first week was 12,000 the second was 23,000 okay so $23,000 and then we go we'll do the next um two weeks do the next two weeks here so it's increasing every two weeks right so now we're going to look at this again 30 minute now all of a sudden I have 58 trades premarket no 75 about 75 trades and this is $119,000 wow in two weeks"
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By adapting their strategy to include pre-market trading after June 2020, the speaker generated $4.5 million in profit from June to December 2020, with nearly $1 million of that coming from pre-market trades.
"now imagine if I had chosen not to adapt my strategy I just would have missed out on all of that profit that profit would just be gone I wouldn't have captured it if we go through the rest of the year we'll go through um uh 20 December 31st so December 31st 2020 now all of a sudden this is a year where I have let's see 4 .5 million just from just from June to December that's a six-month window and look at the profit we go by 30 minute window all of a sudden boom there's almost a million dollars of profit pre-market"
Pending
The speaker predicts that algorithmic trading will continue to increase its activity at the 9:30 AM opening bell, making trading during regular market hours (9:30 AM to 4 PM) increasingly competitive.
"we're continuing to see at 9:30 at that opening bell the algorithms are turning on and those algorithms are making it more and more competitive to try to trade at the 9:30 opening bell until 4 P.M"
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The speaker asserts that the most significant and straightforward trading opportunities arise immediately following the release of breaking news.
"what we're finding is that the cleanest moves are occurring the second the news comes out"
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A specific stock (CHSN) experienced a 10% price surge within 10 minutes of breaking news, highlighting the rapid market reaction to such events.
"so this stock right now chsn this is a Chinese stock I'm not in love with it I'm already familiar with the name I i' I've traded it before it's got a float of 3.7 million shares and here all of a sudden it's just surged from 290 up to 330 that's a 10% move in less than 10 minutes that's something to pay attention to"
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The speaker's preferred trading entry point is on the initial upward surge of a stock following breaking news, referring to it as their favorite setup.
"and so my first entry on these stocks typically is going to be right here that's my favorite setup now I've got other episodes where I talk specifically about this pattern because I love this pattern so much"
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The speaker uses the MACD indicator, specifically the crossover of the blue line above the orange line, as a signal for the end of the 'front side' of a stock's move.
"and when that happens this blue line moves up very quickly relative to this Orange Line once they cross over for the first time right here that for me is usually the end of the move for the front side and that occurred right here"
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Companies tend to release news pre-market, making pre-market trading sessions the primary opportunity to capitalize on these catalysts. The speaker emphasizes trading when the news is released, regardless of the specific time.
"because most of these companies are putting out their news pre-market they don't put out their news at 10: a.m. now if companies did put out news at 10:00 a.m. then we would be sitting here at 10: a.m. trading them if they put out news always at 2 p.m. we'd be sitting here at 2 p.m. we're trading when the news is coming out"
Pending
The stock PRTG presented two trading opportunities: an early pre-market move before 7 AM that many traders missed, and a second opportunity during regular trading hours as the stock continued its upward trend, attracting those who missed the initial surge.
"so it ended up happening on prtg was we actually had sort of two uh two moves we had the first initial move which occurred earlier than most Traders were able to trade it it was before 7 a.m. right so a lot of Traders it up and saw the stock and then we're eager to find an opportunity so once it started to move up here just a little bit I think all of the traders who missed the first part of this move here said you know what I'm getting in and I'm going to get in right here on this pullback because now we're starting to push higher and so in this particular instance the stock gave us two opportunities we had the first opportunity which one group of Traders took and then a second opportunity at a different time of day that the next group of Traders took"
Pending
Moves occurring before 7 AM are often missed by most US traders, leading to FOMO (fear of missing out) and subsequent participation once the stock begins to move upwards during more accessible trading hours.
"so we'll see the first move prior to 7 a.m. in which case most people or this is the 7 am window right around here which means most people don't trade it it gives them fomo and then once it starts to pull away a lot of people jump on"
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The speaker identifies the early morning (around 7 AM to 10 AM) as a prime window for active trading due to increased volatility, while noting that pre-market spikes (like the 4 AM spike) often occur on light volume.
"because if you're really going to be an active Trader most likely this is the window that you're going to be trading now this again is an example of an index which is not the type of stock that uh not something that we would be trading on a daily basis we're going to be more inclined to be trading um stocks that are small cap stocks that have some good volatility but even these we're seeing this very interesting Trend where you've got volatility sort of through this whole range this is that 4 a.m Spike right here so you got 4 a.m. Spike here but it's on relatively light volume"
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The speaker's personal trading experience indicates that the peak volatility window for them is typically between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM.
"and for me right now that begins more or less at about 7:00 a.m. and then it's kind of dying down by by 10: a.m."
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The speaker's year-to-date trading performance shows the highest profitability up until 10:00 AM, with a noticeable slowdown and losses occurring during the Power Hour (3 PM - 4 PM).
"so we'll do year to date right here so we'll do year to date sitting currently at just over 800,000 gross profit and you can see uh performance by hour of the day I'm doing the best up until 10:00 a.m. so it slows down and then I had some losses during Power Hour this year"
Pending
Many traders wait until 9:30 AM to trade, but they often experience choppy price action and are stopped out by high-frequency trading algorithms due to the increased competition and lack of desired volatility.
"I mean this was the one spot where there was where there was some momentum there and on this pullback right here like that was where we had some some clean action it got so crowded I think a lot of Traders are waiting until 9:30 because those are that's convenient for the tools they're using but then they're finding that they're just getting chopped out they're getting stopped out chopped out by the high frequency trading algorithms and they're not seeing the volatility that they're wanting"
Pending
During June and July, exceptionally high volatility in the market allowed for extended trading days. However, in earlier months, sticking to a shorter trading window was crucial to avoid losses.
"and there have been some periods like we had during the month for instance of June and July where we had so much volatility that it was it made a lot of sense to trade longer into the day so if we look at um let's see we'll go overview and then we'll do yeah we'll do by month so you could see here July and August I mean really incredible volatility and this was a time where you could get away with trading longer into the day but some of these earlier months in the year you couldn't get away with it you had your small window and if you push your luck you over stay your welcome you're going to go into the red"
Pending
For beginner traders, the speaker recommends extensive practice in a simulator to build experience with chart reading, technical analysis, and platform tools. Once proficient, 'guard rails' (disciplined trading limits) should be implemented to test long-term profitability.
"I think that as a as a brand new Trader as a beginner you want to practice in this in a simulator and trade as much as possible because you want to gain a lot of experience you want to get in you want to get out you want to get really good at reading the charts understanding the language of technical analysis knowing how to read level two tape reading you how to use your hotkeys how to make the most of the trading platform that you're using whatever it may be but then you're going to get to a point where you want to test yourself yourself to see whether or not you have what it takes to be longterm a profitable Trader and that's when you put on the guard rails"
Pending
A consistently profitable trading strategy, even with a small profit per share, can be scaled significantly by increasing share size, potentially leading to substantial annual income.
"but then the blessing of the market is that once you're doing that consistently with a thousand shares what's stopping you from going up to 4,000 to 8,000 to 12,000 and next thing you know 20 cents a day is $2,000 a day that's half a million dollars a year"
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Trading success is equally dependent on mindset and psychology as it is on skill. The speaker recommends the book 'Trade Mindfully' by Gary Dayton, which focuses on trading psychology.
"it's up here I actually have a great book for you that I'll show you here this is a book called trade mindfully by Gary Dayton so I'll put it here on the Whiteboard so you can see it better this is a book that's all about trading psychology and getting yourself into the head space of a successful Trader"
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After experiencing a significant loss that erases prior gains, traders should review their metrics, reaffirm their capabilities, re-implement trading guardrails, and return to basic strategies, as such losses often stem from deviating from the established plan.
"you catch a big loss a huge loss you give back three weeks of profit and you feel deflated you feel like oh my gosh what am I going to do am I going to recover from this do I even know what I'm doing but what do you do you look at your metrix you go back you pull up your metrix and you say I am the trader who just did this this is what I'm capable of I know what I'm doing all I have to do is put the guard rails back on my account and go back to basics because most most likely that big loss that anomaly loss it was a result of straying a little outside your strategy"
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Traders can expand their strategies by developing new setups over time, returning to their core strategy when necessary, and building a repertoire of consistent approaches, which ultimately fosters self-confidence.
"similar with trading you've got your core strategy you start expanding building others you go back to your core but now actually I've got that one but I've also got this other setup that really is pretty consistent now you've got two now you've got three now you've got four 10 years later you've got 10 and now this is where you get some real self-confidence"
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The speaker identifies having a proven trading strategy and the discipline to adhere to its rules as the two fundamental components of trading success.
"your success will depend on number one having a proven strategy and number two having the discipline to follow the rules and that that that's really where it's at"
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