ilmscore | Airbnb Bans Escalate, The Real Estate "Tsunami," and "Sinking" Cities

Predictions from this Video

Total: 19
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 19
Prediction
Topic
Status
Commercial real estate deals will be settled by private equity before widespread foreclosures occur.
"I don't it doesn't look like it's going to get that far it looks like deals are going to be done before a foreclosure happens in the form of private Equity"
Commercial Real Estate
Pending
The banking industry will experience further consolidation, with larger banks acquiring smaller, failing ones.
"the bigger banks are going to be taking over some of the small banks that fail and that is not a new story so more consolidation in the banking industry"
Banking Industry
Pending
Early investors in commercial real estate projects are likely to lose their equity, unless property values rise significantly over the next decade, due to private equity firms taking priority.
"probably more investors losing as the private Equity comes in and takes priority those who kind of came in early or invested early in some of these commercial projects are most likely going to lose their their Equity Unless somehow values rise dramatically over the next decade"
Commercial Real Estate Investment
Pending
Entities that successfully convert vacant office spaces into affordable housing will achieve significant profitability.
"whoever figures out how to turn vacant office into affordable housing is going to make a lot of money"
Commercial Real Estate Repurposing
Pending
Converting vacant office spaces into affordable housing will likely require government subsidies to be profitable.
"I think personally it's probably going to take some like government subsidies cuz just not profitable in the way that it is right now"
Commercial Real Estate Repurposing
Pending
Private equity and investors will eventually set the bottom for the commercial real estate market by purchasing distressed assets and making them profitable, initiating the next market cycle.
"Investors play a very important role in setting the bottom of any Market... the same thing is going to have to happen in commercial real estate sooner or later like if you don't want it to be private Equity coming in to set the bottom who else is going to do it like we need someone to come in and start buying these assets and making them profitable that's going to start the next cycle for commercial real estate"
Commercial Real Estate Market Cycle
Pending
Short-term rental regulations will become increasingly strict, potentially leading to significant challenges for owners within three years, requiring them to sell or reposition assets if current properties are not grandfathered in.
"I do think this regulation gets worse and worse and I always get surprised by like how much it gets tightened and if I'm getting surprised today that means it could be a very nasty surprise in 3 years if you own short-term rentals you really want to watch the uh the legislation because if there is major changes going on and it's not going to be grandfathered in you want to put that in your forecasting to sell and reposition into a different type of asset class"
Short-Term Rental Regulation
Pending
Banning short-term rentals, especially for smaller properties in major metropolitan areas, could help alleviate housing pressure.
"in these major metros where you're able to take smaller properties... I think that this could absolutely help alleviate some pressure in terms of housing"
Short-Term Rentals & Housing Affordability
Pending
A complete ban on short-term rentals is unlikely; instead, the market will experience moderation and a step back from its previously unregulated state, ultimately benefiting investors and communities in the long run.
"I really doubt there's going to be like a holistic ban across the board I think we'll see a moderation just like there is in every industry... now we're going to see a step back and that's going to be okay in the long run for investors and for communities"
Short-Term Rental Market
Pending
The NAR settlement will not significantly alter the overall real estate agent business model, only the transactional structure.
"I don't think it's going to change much at all it's just a matter of structure on a deal"
Real Estate Agent Business Model (NAR Settlement)
Pending
The short-term impact of the NAR settlement will be an immediate 3% increase in housing market prices across the board due to the added cost being borne by the buyer.
"the biggest impact shortterm is that the housing market goes up 3% all of a sudden because it's just now the cost of a house goes up 3% across the board"
Housing Market Prices (NAR Settlement)
Pending
The structure of real estate commissions will not change much, and buyers will increasingly opt to integrate agent fees into the home's purchase price to avoid out-of-pocket expenses.
"I really don't think anything's going to change much in the structure of it I I'm seeing it all around of people saying yeah you know just put it in the price of of the home so that I don't have to come out of pocket and I think again more and more buyers are going to learn that there's different ways to pay that fee it can be in you know in the price of the home so that it's you get to have the loan on it and you don't have to come out of pocket"
Real Estate Commissions (NAR Settlement)
Pending
Effective real estate agents providing quality service will continue to be well-compensated, while less diligent agents will face scrutiny and difficulty justifying their fees post-settlement.
"good agents who provide a good quality of service aren't going to have a problem getting paid or making money and I think agents who don't work hard now you've got people that are going to be able to pull your card and sayy man like why am I paying you 3% totally because you're not doing what I need you to do"
Real Estate Agent Compensation (NAR Settlement)
Pending
Homebuyers are highly unlikely to pay 3% of the purchase price directly out-of-pocket for agent commissions; instead, fees will be integrated into the home price or agents will offer reduced rates as a volume play.
"people are not going to be coming out of pocket this amount it's either like Kathy said going to be baked in or if it does wind up that people start paying out of pocket I could almost guarantee it's not going to be 3% because that's just not an amount people are going to come out of pocket for there's going to be agents offering Cut Rate services or just trying to put do the volume play where they do a lot more houses at a cheaper price but I feel quite confident that you're not going to start seeing people writing checks to their agent for 3% of the purchase price that seems like probably the least likely outcome"
Real Estate Commission Payments (NAR Settlement)
Pending
Earthquakes will remain California's most significant natural disaster risk, with residents largely remaining unconcerned and uninsured despite widespread awareness of an impending major seismic event.
"your bigger issue in California for sure is earthquakes and no one seems to worry about that nobody's got insurance for it uh they know it's coming you know we know it's coming most of us live on the fault so you know people take risks they live where they want to live"
California Earthquake Risk
Pending
Land subsidence in affected cities will occur gradually over a period of years to decades.
"this sinking it's a slow syn you know it's going to be years if not decades"
Land Subsidence
Pending
Insurance companies will likely respond to the new risk of land subsidence by offering extra or increased coverage, or by excluding it entirely, impacting future investment returns.
"what concerns me about it is what are insurance companies going to do or not do about this new risk that people may be aware of I think they're going to see it as an opportunity a to have extra coverage or increased coverage or not cover these kinds of things"
Property Insurance & Natural Hazards
Pending
Property insurance for high-risk environmental areas will become increasingly difficult to obtain and significantly more expensive in the future.
"if you can't get it today or it's really hard to get it today it's going to get harder tomorrow and if it's really expensive today it's going to get even more expensive tomorrow"
Property Insurance Cost & Availability
Pending
Costs associated with land subsidence and other environmental issues will lead to higher local and municipal taxes, either through direct tax increases or increased property taxes for homeowners.
"the cost associated with this sinking and other issues are not just insurance but they also do get reflected in local and Municipal Taxes because whether you're paying for them as a homeowner or the government is going to pay for them to create resiliency or to repair things that are broken like the money's got to come from somewhere and so they're going to either raise taxes or pass it on to home homeowners in terms of property taxes"
Property Taxes & Climate Costs
Pending