What Happens if the Housing Market Crashes (& What Could Cause It)
Published: 2024-08-16
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2024-08-16
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Upcoming real estate headlines will report an explosion in inventory within 30 days.
"I actually think the headlines on real estate are coming in like 30 days like inventory has exploded and all these things"
Pending
The housing market will not experience a massive freefall.
"I don't see us going into a massive freef fall there's still a big housing shortage people still need places to live"
Pending
Real estate transactions will slow down, and there should be a 10% pullback in home values, but not a massive decline like 2008.
"do I think transactions will slow down yes but I don't know if there's going to be this massive Decline and I'm I'm also calling a massive decline like we saw pricing get cut in half in 2008 you know is there going to be a pullback of 10% there should be"
Pending
Lack of liquidity and affordability will lead to delays in real estate sales and a decrease in pricing.
"I think it comes down to liquidity and affordability and people don't want to lock into a heavy payment when they're uncertain about the market and that's what I think is going to cause the delays in sales and bring pricing down"
Pending
Interest rates will fall during a recession, which will make things more affordable.
"guess what when we go into a recession rat should fall too which is going to make things more affordable and so there is going to be a balance in that in that mixture"
Pending
The Fed is likely to overcorrect by cutting rates, leading to rates being lower than the historic average within 6-12 months. This will create a significant opportunity for real estate investors to leverage relatively cheap debt, which will be even more valuable in a likely inflationary environment over the next 5-10 years.
"I suspect that over the next six months um there's a reasonable chance that the FED overcorrects with their with their cutting of rates I think rates are going to be lower than the historic average within 6 to 12 months and I think there's going to be another great opportunity for Real Estate Investors to leverage relatively cheap debt and within a likely inflationary environment over the next 5 to 10 years uh that debt is going to be even more valuable"
Pending
A 2008-type real estate event is unlikely. A typical recession with moderate fear (4-6 on a 1-10 scale) would present an amazing opportunity for investors, characterized by many transactions, relatively loose lending, strong real estate values, and no significant value drop, yielding benefits without the drawbacks of a severe crash.
"I'm hopeful and I'm I'm relatively confident at this point that we're not going to see a 2008 type event um that we could get to a typical recession where we see fear kind of in that to to to make up numbers four five six range and I think the 456 range on fear is an amazing opportunity for investors because typically you're going to see a lot of transactions in that range you're going to see lending still relatively loose in that range you're going to see values still relatively strong in that range there's enough demand out there that I don't think that even with transaction volume doubling or tripling that we're going to see values drop I I think that this is going to end up being a good recession if there is one of those things for us as Real Estate Investors because I I think it's going to give us a lot of benefits without the without all the drawbacks of something as bad as 2008"
Pending
Contractors will be available during a recession.
"when we go to recession they will be available I promise you that"
Pending
The speaker predicts he will be buying many deals from younger, deal-finding investors in 6 months, as they will be selling everything.
"I know I'll be buying from them in 6 months and they will be selling me everything at that point"
Pending
The US entered a recession by August 2, 2024, according to the S Rule based on unemployment data.
"as of Friday August 2nd uh unemployment data indicated that according to her rule we are now in a recession"
Pending
Real estate headlines will report exploding inventory within 30 days of August 5, 2024.
"I actually think the headlines on real estate are coming in like 30 days like inventory has exploded and all these things"
Pending
The housing market will not experience a massive freefall.
"I don't see us going into a massive freef fall"
Pending
Real estate transactions will slow down.
"do I think transactions will slow down yes"
Pending
A lack of liquidity and affordability will lead to delays in sales and a decrease in real estate pricing.
"and that's what I think is going to cause the delays in sales and bring pricing down"
Pending
Within 6-12 months (from August 5, 2024), the Federal Reserve will overcorrect by cutting rates, causing rates to be lower than the historic average.
"I suspect that over the next six months um there's a reasonable chance that the FED overcorrects with their with their cutting of rates I think rates are going to be lower than the historic average within 6 to 12 months"
Pending
There will likely be an inflationary environment over the next 5 to 10 years.
"within a likely inflationary environment over the next 5 to 10 years"
Pending
The market will not experience a 2008-type financial crisis event.
"I'm I'm relatively confident at this point that we're not going to see a 2008 type event"
Pending
Real estate values will not drop, even if transaction volume doubles or triples.
"I don't think that even with transaction volume doubling or tripling that we're going to see values drop"
Pending