AI, Tax Cuts & A New Bull Market?| ITK With Cathie Wood
Published: 2025-12-05
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-12-05
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 1
Prediction
Topic
Status
Predicted that inflation will decrease due to outsized and sustainable productivity gains from converging technologies, leading to deflation.
"inflation comes down mostly because of productivity gains. uh and as you know we think that the productivity gains in this cycle are going to be outsized and sustainable thanks to the convergence of all of the technologies around which we've centered our research so robotics... we think is going to be highly deflationary..."
Pending
Predicted that economic stimulus will occur, be effective, and its effects will be apparent before the next midterm elections.
"we do believe we'll see stimulus. We do believe it will work and um we do believe it will be obvious in time for the midterm elections."
Pending
Predicted that housing affordability will increase significantly and housing will be the biggest surprise in the next year.
"we believe that affordability will increase significantly during the next year. Um, and in fact, we do believe that housing might be the biggest surprise in the next year."
Pending
Predicted that the current bull market, built on a 'wall of worry,' will be strong and durable.
"walls of worry, bull markets built on walls of worry tend to be the strongest and most durable bull markets."
Pending
Predicted that workers doing overtime will receive a significant tax break next year.
"if we're right about next year, uh those working overtime will get a nice big break."
Pending
Predicted that disposable personal income growth will increase to a 10% annualized rate with tax relief.
"disposable personal income so that includes inflation... was going to annualize uh in terms of growth at a 4% rate with tax uh with tax relief that will be a 10% annualized rate"
Pending
Predicted that real disposable personal income growth will be roughly 8% at an annual rate with tax relief.
"real disposable personal income. So that takes away inflation. What's the real gain in income? Uh it looks like that's going to be with tax relief roughly 8% at an annual rate."
Pending
Predicted that gasoline prices could drop 20% year-over-year.
"Moving forward, it is possible that gasoline prices will drop year-over-year 20%."
Pending
Predicted that real GDP will hold up while inflation will decline further.
"If we're right uh real GDP will hold up inflation will cave more and that's in the green line."
Pending
Predicted that the gold price can go down.
"the gold price can go down and we think we are moving into"
Incorrect
Predicted that gold could drop by 45% over the next four to five years.
"we would not be surprised to see something like that happen during the next four to five"
Pending
Predicted that system liquidity will increase significantly due to the end of quantitative tightening and the unwinding of the Treasury General Account.
"the combination of the end of quantitative tightening... is going to help turn this line up. Uh and then the Treasury General account... we believe uh that it it will and actually is in the process of doing so. Uh so we think this line is going to turn around uh fairly dramatically."
Pending
Predicted that inflation will surprise on the low side of expectations as tariffs work through the system.
"we think in the next as tariffs work through the system that uh the surprise is going to be on the low side of expectations"
Pending
Predicted an 80-90% probability of a Fed rate cut on December 10, 2025.
"we do think the odds are 80 90% for a cut on December 10th"
Correct
Predicted that a non-steepening yield curve, despite falling short and long rates, will indicate deflationary undercurrents.
"if short rates uh and long rates come down. But this yield curve uh does not steepen anymore. Um I think it will be telegraphing that there are deflationary undercurrens out there"
Pending
Predicted that middle-income consumers will be able to participate in the current growth rate next year.
"we think that that will happen uh during the next year."
Pending
Predicted that productivity will continue to increase.
"we think it's going to uh continue to move up as I've mentioned in the past"
Pending
Predicted that the manufacturing sector will recover next year.
"waiting to recover in in this next year."
Pending
Predicted that home sales volume will increase as interest rates and new home prices decline.
"this number will go up as people uh are more and more people are able to move."
Pending
Predicted that the housing sector could surprise positively next year if a virtuous cycle begins.
"housing is a sector that could really surprise on the high side of expectations if we get this virtuous cycle going in the next year."
Pending
Predicted that builders will sell new home inventory, potentially at a discount, as the housing market picks up.
"as the housing market picks up they will probably want to sell even if they have to take a haircut so they can participate in the next wave of housing and invest in it."
Pending
Predicted that declining new home sales and slower existing home price inflation will help lower CPI inflation over the next couple of years.
"this decline in new home sales and slowdown uh in the inflation of associated with existing homes should uh really help the inflation indicators during the next couple of years."
Pending
Predicted that auto delinquencies will increase.
"I have a feeling this will go higher again"
Pending
Predicted that capital spending is turning around and reaccelerating.
"now it's turning around and reacelerating."
Pending
Predicted that the US trade deficit will not improve as the US economy grows faster than other developed economies, leading to imports exceeding exports.
"if we're right on what's going to happen here, where the US economy is going to grow faster than most other developed economies around the world, this probably will not get any better. Import growth will exceed export growth."
Pending
Predicted that the S&P to gold ratio will test current levels and then move upwards.
"we think it will test and the next move will be up. Test well and the next move will be up."
Pending
Predicted that the Bitcoin to gold ratio will resume its uptrend.
"if we are right we believe uh that that that uh the Bitcoin to gold ratio will resume its uptrend"
Pending