Prices Could Keep Falling Through 2026 in These Housing Markets

"I think there is a decent chance that we will see doubledigit losses across the state of Florida from the peak of where they were to the bottom where they will eventually bottom out, but I don't think we're close to that right now."

"affordable places in my mind are going to see the least dramatic dips in the coming years."

"if you want to, you know, just peek ahead to what we're going to talk about soon about where these prices are going in a market like that, they're going down."

"this situation is going to become even more dramatic where, you know, I'm going to borrow word from the stock market, but some of these markets might become what you would call oversold. The supply and demand dynamics just shift in a way where prices go down probably more than they should. A lot of these markets do need to come down in terms of affordability, but I think you're going to be able to find good deals in these markets in the next couple of years if you are willing to take on a little bit of extra risk to realize what will potentially be some outsized gains in the future."

"Zillow believes that the fastest growing market over the next year will be Atlantic City, New Jersey with 5% growth. We have Rockford, Illinois, and Conquer, New Hampshire at 5%. Knoxville, Tennessee at 5%, Sagena, Michigan at 5%. Fagatville, Arkansas, shout out to Henry at 4.8%. Hilton Head, Connecticut, and then more places in Connecticut. But we're getting some other places towards the bottom of the list. Jacksonville, North Carolina. We're seeing Morristown, Tennessee."

"They are projecting that the Midwest cools down a little bit, but the Carolas and Tennessee, which have been really strong for the last decade, but a little weak in the last year, starting to rebound."

"if you look at what they're forecasting for the lowest performing markets, it doesn't look good for Louisiana. The bottom five markets are all forecasted to be in Louisiana. Huma, Lake Charles, Lafayette, New Orleans, Shreveport. You skip a couple and then Alexandria, Louisiana, Monroe, Louisiana. All told, seven out of the bottom 10 are in Louisiana. The rest are mostly in Texas. We have Bowmont, Odessa, Corpus Christi. Then we see San Francisco, California, Chico, California, Puntaorta, Florida."

"Mostly what they're projecting is a year of more flatness. like they're not projecting most markets to go down by more than one or two%. The majority of markets in Zillow's forecast are between negative 2% and plus 2%."

"in some of these markets, arguably in many of these markets over the next two to three years, cash flow prospects will finally be getting better after years of getting worse."

"I think is going to be the majority of markets for the next few years, I think they're going to be relatively flat."

"I personally believe affordability is going to continue to drive market divergence."

"looking for places that are affordable with limited supply risk is probably going to be the lowest risk potential for deals over the next couple of years."

"I think we're probably going to see institutional investors that have a lot of capital start to try and do these things. Looking at markets like Nashville that have been super hot over the last couple of years, if they could start buying those at 10%, they'll wait three or four years to the appreciation returns."

"I think flipping is going to be risky right now, especially in correcting markets. But an interesting thing happens in flipping during corrections like this where the price of distressed C-class homes go down more than A-class homes. And so actually sometimes you get a widening margin. So, the opportunity for flipping actually gets better."

"I think just generally over the next few years, we're going to be going back to more normal regional variation because we've seen some very, very abnormal stuff over the last couple of years."

"what we're going to see is a move back to sort of this traditional trade-off that has almost always existed in real estate investing, which is the trade-off between appreciation and cash flow."

"Midwest affordable markets are going to go back to being better for cash flow. They'll still have slow and steady appreciation, but I'm not sure we're going to see this outsized appreciation for years in the Midwest. I think if you want to sort of summarize it, I'd say the Midwest is going to be easier doubles, harder home runs."

"When you then you look at these other markets like the ones we've talked about in Austin and Denver and Vegas and Phoenix, these are markets where you could take bigger swings. right now. You might hit a home run, but you could strike out."

"my hope is that because this correction exists because affordability needs to be restored. That once we've been in this correction for a little while, we can get back to a normal housing market on a national level. And to me, that also means we're going to return to those normal regional variances where markets that have strong economic engines, strong population, and household growth are going to see the appreciation where the other markets that are still good markets are going to be more cash flowcentric markets. And that's okay. And as investors, if it becomes predictable again, we can absolutely work with that. I would love to work with that. Let's all hope that's what we see after this correction in the next couple of years."