ilmscore | China’s Crypto Comeback: Is the Next Bull Run Already Loading?

China’s Crypto Comeback: Is the Next Bull Run Already Loading?

Published: 2025-12-27
Status: Available | Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 9
Correct: 3
Incorrect: 5
Pending: 1
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
China is estimated to control between 14-20% of the global Bitcoin hash rate, indicating a resurgence of mining activity.
"According to recent data, China has quietly climbed back to control roughly 14 to 20% of the global Bitcoin hash rate."
BTC
Correct
Proposed new rules in Hong Kong could allow insurance companies, with $82 billion in annual premiums, to invest in digital assets, with even a 1% allocation expected to significantly exceed current retail inflows.
"The Hong Kong Insurance Authority is proposing new rules that would allow insurance companies to allocate capital into digital assets. We're talking about an industry with roughly $82 billion in gross premiums annually. Even a 1% allocation from this sector would dwarf the retail inflows we've seen so far."
BTC
Incorrect
A shift in Bitcoin reserves from US-based exchanges to offshore platforms in Asia suggests that Asian traders and entities are accumulating the liquid supply of Bitcoin.
"The Bitcoin exchange reserve ratio, which compares US-based exchanges to offshore exchanges, shows a clear flow of capital moving east. The coins are leaving Coinbase and heading to Binance, OKX, and Bybit. This suggests that while American institutions are buying the ETFs, the actual liquid supply of Bitcoin is increasingly being cornered by Asian traders and entities."
BTC
Incorrect
Historically, increased liquidity from China has led to a rise in Bitcoin's price.
"And historically, when the East turns on the liquidity taps, Bitcoin tends to float higher."
BTC
Incorrect
Due to falling property prices and stock market volatility in China, Bitcoin is seen as the primary asset for Chinese citizens to move capital out of the domestic system.
"Chinese citizens are sitting on a record 160 trillion yuan in household savings. With property prices falling and the stock market volatile, Bitcoin is the only asset that can truly get capital out of the system."
BTC
Incorrect
The Chinese government holds approximately 200,000 BTC in seized assets, valued at $12 billion, which could be sold to address budget shortfalls or economic bailouts, potentially impacting Bitcoin's price.
"Furthermore, the Chinese government is sitting on a massive pile of seized crypto, estimated at nearly 200,000 BTC from the Plus token seizure years ago. If they need to plug a budget hole, if they need to bail out a developer like Vanie or Country Garden, then they have a $12 billion piggy bank they can smash open at any time."
BTC
Incorrect
Bitcoin mining operations in China are reportedly being disguised as AI compute centers or operating under state-owned enterprises to monetize excess energy.
"Many of these mining operations are reportedly disguising themselves as AI compute centers. or they're operating under the umbrella of state-owned enterprises looking to monetize excess energy from hydroelectric dams in places like Sichuan and Shing Jang."
BTC
Correct
China's current economic policy is focused on preventing a market crash, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve's goal of a soft landing.
"While the Fed is trying to stick to a soft landing, China is trying to prevent a crash landing."
BTC
Pending
Despite the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong in April 2024, mainland Chinese investors have not been able to participate through the Stock Connect program due to explicit blocking of crypto ETF purchases.
"When the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs launched in Hong Kong in April 2024, the narrative was that mainland Chinese investors would pour billions in via the Stock Connect program. But then the ETFs launched and the volume was frankly underwhelming. Why? Because the Stock Connect program does not currently allow mainlanders to buy crypto ETFs. They're explicitly blocked."
BTC
Correct