War Hits Bitcoin, The Jane Street SLAM Theory & Why This Weekly Close Actually Matters

"This is the sixth week in a row where we've had a negative week, you know, negative close on the week unfortunately. And we also closed last week below the 200-week exponential moving average, which shows that momentum is unfortunately not on our side on the weekly. And it seems as if that 200-week move simple moving average, which we've been pointing to for the past few months now, is going to be where we could potentially bottom, where Bitcoin is heading. So, keep that level in in check, guys. It's about 58k right now."

"We could be going to some sort of a breakout. Now, we've had a few of these breaks lower in the past few few weeks. We had that bear flag last week where we broke lower. And now we're at a place where going into the symmetrical triangle where we could have a break. It'll be interesting to see whether we break lower and continue the downward the downward momentum on continuation of that trend, or whether we may have a bit of a relief rally going into the week."

"So, for the time aspect, it's only logical that you do the same exact thing and you just take 364 days from the top of the market in October of 2025 to and if we click on this, it would be October of 2026. Okay, so October is the time range where I think that the bottom is most likely going to be in. Although I will say because of the institutional adoption, we might have a bottom earlier and I will be looking for signs and that is where either a capitulation event has to come in to play or the price has to you know do some things and I'll just share what I would look for for the price to show me that it is actually bottoming out."

"So, if we can create a floor and then we crash down below it, then that to me would probably be similar to a capitulation event and that is when I would want to just basically go all in and just forget about you know crypto for a while not forget about crypto, but not really touch anything or just try to make as much money as possible or do something to put more money into crypto if we can get a big big big move down after some type of established floor."

"DeepSeek, which is a Chinese AI lab, released a model update that would trumped a lot of the one the western models and it caused a collapse in in in prices and stock stock prices of uh many of the um US-based uh AI-faced companies. So they're releasing version four um in the coming week. So keep an eye out for that."