94.9% Chance of Interest Rate Cut in Sept – The Fed is in Trouble!
Published: 2025-08-06
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-08-06
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
There is a 94.9% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on September 17th.
"There is now a 94.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at their next meeting on September 17th."
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The cost of living is predicted to worsen.
"it's just going to get worse. Cost of living is just going to get worse."
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The labor market added 73,000 jobs in July, below the expectation of 120,000.
"the expectation was that the labor market would add 120,000 jobs and it only added 73,000."
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The July jobs report of 73,000 additions could be revised down to negative 120,000.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see that get revised down from the 73,000 jobs added to even negative 120,000."
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Prior to the jobs report, there was a 41.3% chance of a September interest rate cut.
"Before the jobs report, there was a 41.3% chance that they're going to cut interest rates in September."
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After the August 1st jobs report, the probability of a September interest rate cut increased from 41.3% to 82.8%.
"Immediately after the awful results of the jobs report, which was released on August 1st, the odds of an interest rate cut in September jumped up from that 41.3% to 82.8%."
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The current probability of a September interest rate cut has risen to 94.9%.
"And right now, the odds of a September rate cut, they've gone up even further, even higher to a 94.9% chance."
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Core PC inflation is currently at 2.8% and has stalled for over a year.
"their preferred measure of inflation is core PC inflation. Right now, that's at 2.8%. And it's and take a look at the chart. It's stalled there for over for more than a year."
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Tariffs are predicted to increase the rate of inflation in the upcoming months.
"the tariffs are expected to accelerate the rate of inflation over the coming months."
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Jay Powell believes cutting interest rates too early could re-accelerate inflation.
"Powell's saying that if they start to cut interest rates too early, then that may reacelerate inflation."
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Cutting interest rates too soon risks not effectively combating inflation.
"If we cut rates too soon, maybe we didn't finish the job with inflation."
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Cutting interest rates too late could cause unnecessary damage to the labor market.
"If you cut too late, then maybe you're doing unnecessary damage to the labor market."
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The labor market is expected to weaken further in the upcoming jobs report.
"for the jobs, like I don't think it's going to be a surprise to anyone to see that the labor market's going to weaken even further in the next report."
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Jerome Powell may justify an interest rate cut by attributing high inflation to a one-time tariff effect.
"I think the only way that Paul can play this off is if he says this high inflation, it's coming from the tariffs, but the tariffs are going to cause a one-time increase in inflation."
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The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%.
"the unemployment rate it ticked up by only.1% only ticked up to 4.2%."
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Jerome Powell considers the unemployment rate the most important number in the jobs report.
"Powell did say that the most important number to look at in the jobs report is going to be the unemployment rate."
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Two Federal Reserve governors, Waller and Bowman, voted to cut interest rates at the last meeting, while the committee voted against it.
"two Fed governors dissented at the last meeting. So, essentially the Fed committee decided to not cut interest rates, right? And then Fed Governor Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman voted to cut interest rates."
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A dissent by two Fed governors has not occurred in over three decades.
"the last time that two Fed board governors dissented was more than three decades ago."
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There is internal pressure within the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates.
"there is this sense. So from within the Fed, there is pressure to start cutting rates."
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In June, the Federal Reserve forecast two more interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year.
"in June, the Federal Reserve predicted two more interest rate cuts for the rest of this year."
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If the Fed maintains its forecast of two rate cuts for the year, and cuts in September, further cuts are expected in October or December.
"If they keep it at two rate cuts, you know, for the remainder of this year, that means that, okay, if they cut in September, then they're going to have to cut again very soon, either in October or in December."
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There is a strong market expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at their September meeting.
"there is a big market expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at their next meeting in September."
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