Fed Decision: No Interest Rate Cut — Here’s What Comes Next

"So, after this press conference, the odds of a rate cut in September have fallen from that 59.8% to now 46%."

"So, we didn't learn much. I mean, we're still in a wait andsee approach. Like, what has changed really? Like, nothing. So, I mean, what do we know from the for the next Federal Reserve meeting in September? A 46% chance that they're going to cut, 54% chance that they're not going to cut. So, it's basically like a coin toss at this point."

"we are still, you know, a ways away from seeing where things settle down. we are clearly getting more and more information and um you know I think at this point people's estimates our estimates outside estimates of the of the likely um you know uh effective effective level of tariffs is is not moving around that much at this point but at the same time there are many many uncertainties left to resolve so yes we are learning more and more it doesn't feel like we're very close to the end of that process"

"So, generally the and if if you look at the banks and when the banks talk about in their earnings calls, their the performance of credit has been good. So essentially you you have a consumer that's in good shape and is spending not at a rapid rate."

"Look, we it's it's one of the data points that we pay most careful attention to. Um, and there's no question that it's slowed and you know, we're watching it closely, but we also watch the labor market and the performance of inflation."