Predictions from this Video

Total: 4
Correct: 3
Incorrect: 1
Pending: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by their September 17th meeting (92.1% chance).
"The market is expecting that the Federal Reserve is going to start cutting interest rates at their September 17th meeting. And I want to show you the odds. So, here it is. There's a 92.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by this meeting and this is just going to be the start."
FEDFUNDS
Correct
Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts in 2025, with the second cut occurring shortly after the September meeting.
"So the Federal Reserve has projected two interest rate cuts this year in 2025. So if the next one happens at this September meeting, then another one's going to happen pretty shortly after."
FEDFUNDS
Correct
Inflation will rise meaningfully in the second half of 2025.
"Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, reaffirmed his position at a congressional hearing that just took place. And Paul says that, I mean, he reiterated that he wants to take a wait and see approach. So, the market is expecting that the Federal Reserve is going to start cutting interest rates at their September 17th meeting. ... Powell says that he wants to take a wait and see approach because he believes that inflation will rise meaningfully in the second half of 2025."
CPI
Incorrect
President Trump will nominate the next Federal Reserve chair much earlier than usual (before February 2026) to influence markets and make Jay Powell a lame duck.
"President Trump is thinking about naming the next chair of the Federal Reserve that's going to replace Jay Powell. ... Trump wants to do the nomination much earlier to influence the markets and basically make J. Powell a lame duck."
Federal Reserve Chair Nomination
Correct