America's Labor Market is Crashing — Fed Can't Ignore This
Published: 2025-11-07
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-11-07
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 5
Prediction
Topic
Status
The ADP report for October 2025 indicated a rise of 42,000 in private payrolls.
"The ADP report says that private payrolls rose by 42,000 for the month of October."
Incorrect
The ADP report for September 2025 showed a net loss of 29,000 jobs.
"The ADP report for September showed job losses of 29,000."
Correct
Market expectation as of December 2025 is a 68.7% probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at their December meeting.
"Right now, there's a 68.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter point, so 0.25% 25% at the December meeting and there's a 31.3% chance that they're going to leave interest rates alone that they're not going to cut."
Incorrect
A week prior to the current date (November 7, 2025), there was a 72% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.
"A week ago, there was a 72% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by a quarter point."
Correct
The Federal Reserve's September projections indicated an interest rate cut in October (which occurred) and another cut in December.
"In their projections, they wrote down that they would cut interest rates at their October meeting, which they did cut, and they also wrote down that they're going to cut interest rates in December."
Correct
The speaker believes it is more likely than not that the Federal Reserve will implement a 0.25% interest rate cut in December 2025.
"So, I do agree that it's more likely than not that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December again by their quarter point."
Incorrect
October 2025 saw 153,074 job cuts, a 175% increase compared to October 2024, and significantly higher than the 54,64 job cuts in September 2025.
"In October, US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts. This is up by 175%. Compared to October of last year, the previous month had 54,64 job cuts. And again, this month, it's a whopping 153,000. So, it's a huge spike up."
Correct
For the first 10 months of 2025, total announced job cuts reached 1,99,500, a 65% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
"In these 10 months of 2025, employers have announced 1,99,500 job cuts. That is up by 65% compared to the first 10 months of last year."
Correct
In October 2025, 450 companies announced plans for further layoffs, an increase from 400 companies in the same period of 2024.
"not only did companies conduct large layoffs in October, but more companies compared to 2024 announced more plans for further layoffs, 450 compared to 400 last year."
Correct
The technology sector experienced 33,281 job cuts in October 2025.
"In October, that shot up to 33,281 job cuts."
Correct
The retail sector has seen 88,664 job cuts in 2025 year-to-date, a 145% increase from the same period in 2024.
"However, for the year, 88,664 jobs have been cut, which is a 145% increase compared to the same period in 2024."
Pending
The services sector has recorded 63,580 job cuts in 2025, representing a 62% year-over-year increase.
"There's services with 63,580 job cuts this year. That's a 62% year-over-year increase."
Incorrect
The warehousing sector has seen 90,418 job cuts in 2025, a significant 378% increase compared to the previous year.
"And warehousing, 90,418 job cuts this year, a 378% year-over-year increase."
Pending
Consumer product companies have reported 41,33 job cuts in 2025, a 21% increase year-over-year.
"And then you have consumer product companies, 41,33 job cuts this year, a 21% increase year-over-year."
Correct
In October 2025, the primary drivers for job cuts were cost cutting and artificial intelligence adoption.
"However, if you're just going to look at October, the number one reason was cost cutting and the number two reason was artificial intelligence."
Correct
Fed Governor Cook advocates for the Federal Reserve to prioritize the labor market and cut interest rates to stimulate employment.
"Fed Governor Cook is saying that the Federal Reserve should focus on the labor markets within the dual mandates. So Cook is making the argument that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates to boost the labor markets."
Incorrect
Fed President Goulsby argues that the Federal Reserve should prioritize combating inflation over concerns about the labor market.
"And then you have Fed President Goulsby saying that the Federal Reserve should focus on lowering inflation. So prioritize inflation, you know, fighting inflation rather than the labor markets."
Correct
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell indicated a significant disagreement among voting members regarding interest rate decisions for December.
"Jay Powell, who's the chair of the Federal Reserve, said at the October meeting at the press conference that there was a big disagreement between the voting members about what they're going to do about interest rates in December."
Correct