ilmscore | Government Shutdown Resolved — BUT Another Crisis Hits in December & January

Predictions from this Video

Total: 10
Correct: 3
Incorrect: 4
Pending: 3
Prediction
Topic
Status
The government funding bill is expected to pass the House of Representatives, likely on Wednesday of the current week.
"The bill is expected to be voted on sometime this week, most likely tomorrow on Wednesday, and it is expected to pass because they just need a simple majority in the House of Representatives to get it through."
Government Funding Bill
Correct
A vote on extending Obamacare subsidies is expected by the second week of December.
"The deal was that they're going to take a vote on this by the second week of December."
Obamacare Subsidies Vote
Incorrect
The vote to extend Obamacare subsidies is predicted to fail in the Senate.
"Well, they're saying that the votes on extending the Obamacare subsidies that they're going to do, it is expected to fail in the Senate."
Obamacare Subsidies Vote Outcome
Pending
There is a real possibility of another government shutdown around January 30th, approximately 2.5 months from the current date, due to renewed disagreements between Republicans and Democrats.
"And then what do you think is going to happen when January 30th rolls around? The Republicans and Democrats are going to be butting heads again. And there then there's the real possibility of another government shutdown just 2 and 1/2 months from now."
Government Shutdown Recurrence
Incorrect
A potential government shutdown starting January 30th could be worse than the current one because it will not occur during peak travel season, removing a key motivator for resolution.
"Now, I just want you to think about that because if they go through another government shutdown starting on January 30th, then it's not going to be during peak travel season and then well, if they don't have that motivator, then it could end up being worse than this one."
Subsequent Government Shutdown Severity
Incorrect
The inflation report, originally scheduled for release this week, is expected to be delayed.
"And the inflation report, I mean, that was supposed to be released this week, but it is expected to be delayed."
Inflation Report Availability
Correct
If another government shutdown is threatened at the end of January, investors can expect a similar minimal impact on the stock market, based on past statistics.
"So, I'm just saying this because if there's another threat of a government shutdown at the end of January, then well, at least if you go according to the stats, you can expect the same thing. Minimal impact. So don't let another possible shutdown scare, you know, rattle you out as an investor."
Future Shutdown Impact on Stock Market
Correct
Any stock market declines around the time of a potential government shutdown are likely to be due to reasons other than the shutdown itself.
"I'm just saying that if the stock market does go down around that time frame, then it's probably for other reasons besides the government shutdown scare."
Stock Market Decline Reasons
Pending
Ernst & Young estimates that the government shutdown will reduce Q4 GDP by 0.8%, equating to approximately $55 billion in lost output.
"A recent report by Ernston Young is saying that this shutdown will reduce Q4's GDP by 0.8%. And that's equivalent to approximately $55 billion in lost output."
Q4 GDP Reduction
Incorrect
A lower GDP is predicted to provide the Federal Reserve with more justification to aggressively cut interest rates and increase money supply.
"If GDP is lower, then that gives more reason for the Federal Reserve to blast the money printer on and cut interest rates even more aggressively."
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy
Pending