America’s Economy Just Broke (The Jobs Were Fake)
Published: 2025-08-04
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-08-04
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 22
Prediction
Topic
Status
In early summer 2025, the US job market was reported to be growing, adding 144,000 jobs in May and 147,000 in June. The economy needs to add 80-100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with population growth.
"In early summer 2025, the government told us the jobs market was still growing. They reported that the US added 144,000 jobs in May and 147,000 more in June. Now, to put this in context, the US needs to add somewhere between 80 to 100,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth."
Correct
Job numbers for May and June 2025 were significantly revised downwards, with May falling from 144,000 to 19,000 and June from 147,000 to 14, erasing over 250,000 jobs. This revision is the largest two-month revision since 2008, second only to 2020.
"May's jobs numbers went down from 144,000 to just 19,000. And June was revised from 147,000 down to only 14. Combined, that's over a quarter of a million jobs erased from existence. This was one of the biggest 2-month revisions since the 2008 financial crisis, and it's second only to 2020."
Correct
In July, excluding healthcare and government jobs, the private sector experienced a net loss of jobs.
"And if you actually exclude the jobs added in healthcare and government, which accounted for almost all the new jobs for July, then the private sector actually saw a net job loss."
Incorrect
As of July 2025, the US unemployment rate is approximately 4.2%.
"Now, right now, the unemployment rate sits at around 4.2% as of July 2025."
Incorrect
The loss of over 250,000 jobs in two months suggests a potential recession and raises questions about whether the Federal Reserve missed an opportunity to cut interest rates.
"Now, if these two months lost us over a quarter of a million jobs, it makes people wonder, maybe we're already in a recession, and did the Fed miss cutting interest rates?"
Incorrect
Approximately 89% of jobs were lost in May and June.
"So, there's a lot of really interesting theories here, but what seems to be true is that we lost around 89% of jobs in just May and June."
Incorrect
Donald Trump alleges that BLS job numbers were manipulated, overstating jobs by 818,000 in March 2024 and by another 112,000 in August and September of the same year.
"And he says that the jobs numbers were manipulated on purpose, not just recently, but going back to March 2024 when he says that the BLS overstated jobs by 818,000 and again right before the election in August and September by another 112,000."
Incorrect
Trump argues that the recent downward revision of 258,000 jobs was intentional sabotage to weaken the economy's appearance under his leadership, suggesting a political motive.
"Because maybe they wanted the Democratic party to look strong in the economy and win. Now, fast forward to today, and President Trump's argument is this latest downward revision of 258,000 jobs was intentional sabotage, meant to make the economy look weaker under his leadership."
Pending
The CME Fed Watch tool predicts a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by at least 0.25 basis points.
"And right now, it's predicting a 90% chance that the Fed will start to lower rates by at least a quarter of a basis point."
Correct
The July jobs report showed only 73,000 jobs added, significantly below expectations and the lowest monthly figure since the pandemic.
"Now, the second one is the July jobs report, which is the most recent one we have on file, and it came in at only 73,000 jobs added. That's not only way lower than expectations, that's the lowest monthly number since the pandemic."
Incorrect
A shrinking job market, indicated by consistently low job growth below the needed threshold, can lead to recessions.
"And when that happens, these happen, recessions."
Correct
During the July Fed meeting, Governors Waller and Bowman dissented, advocating for a rate cut due to perceived stress in the labor market.
"at their July meeting, there were two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and they actually disagreed with the majority of the Fed because they wanted a rate cut at that meeting, arguing the labor market was actually showing signs of stress."
Incorrect
One Fed governor predicted that revised job growth figures will be significantly lower than initially reported.
"One of them said that once the expected revisions come in, job growth will be a lot smaller than we think."
Correct
Governors Waller and Bowman advocated for a quarter-point rate cut.
"Governors Waller and Bowman continuing that tradition of explaining their dissents on the Friday after the meeting and uh they're both saying why they uh wanted or preferred a quarter point rate cut"
Incorrect
With cooling inflation and a slowing labor market, the Federal Reserve has sufficient justification to begin lowering interest rates, fulfilling its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
"because remember the Fed has a dual mandate meaning they've got two goals to keep inflation under control and to support maximum employment. So, if inflation is cooling, and it is, and now that the labor market is slowing down, then they have more than enough reasons to start lowering interest rates."
Correct
A Fed rate cut could weaken the US dollar and increase the value of risk assets like Bitcoin, provided the economy remains stable.
"And if the Fed does cut rates, that could weaken the dollar and it could send risk assets like Bitcoin much higher, but only if the economy doesn't fall off a cliff."
Correct
Bitcoin is being closely monitored; a Fed rate cut could weaken the dollar and boost Bitcoin, provided the economy remains stable.
"But I'm also watching Bitcoin closely. And if the Fed does cut rates, that could weaken the dollar and it could send risk assets like Bitcoin much higher, but only if the economy doesn't fall off a cliff."
Incorrect
Unemployment rate was 4.2% as of July 2025.
"Now, right now, the unemployment rate sits at around 4.2% as of July 2025."
Correct
Spike in unemployment precedes or coincides with recessions.
"And what do you notice right before or during every single one of them? There's a spike in unemployment."
Correct
Deterioration in the job market and rising unemployment are precursors to recession.
"The job market starts to break, unemployment starts to go up, and then all of a sudden we find ourselves in a recession."
Incorrect
Zero net job growth in May and June 2025 signals a concerning economic outlook.
"But when you combine all of that with the May and June job numbers, which show essentially zero net job growth, then it starts to really paint a scary picture."
Incorrect
A loss of over 250,000 jobs in two months raises concerns about a potential existing recession and the Fed's interest rate decisions.
"Now, if these two months lost us over a quarter million jobs, it makes people wonder, maybe we're already in a recession, and did the Fed miss cutting interest rates?"
Incorrect
Approximately 89% of job gains were lost in May and June 2025.
"So, there's a lot of really interesting theories here, but what seems to be true is that we lost around 89% of jobs in just May and June."
Incorrect
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) routinely revises job numbers as more complete data becomes available.
"According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these revisions were just part of the normal process. Every month, the BLS gets more complete data from businesses, government agencies, and payroll companies, and they update the numbers as that data comes in."
Pending
Initial job reports are based on estimates and are often revised lower as actual employer data is collected.
"So, the story that they're sticking to is the first numbers were based on just early guesstimates of what they thought it would be. And once more employers submitted their info, the revised total came in way lower."
Correct
Seasonal adjustment models for economic data may be inaccurate in 2025 due to rapid changes in immigration, tariffs, remote work, and automation.
"In theory, these adjustments are supposed to help us see the trend, but in reality, especially in 2025 with changing immigration policies and tariffs and remote work and automation still changing our economy, these models might be completely off."
Correct
The Federal Reserve previously cited a strong labor market as a reason against cutting interest rates.
"The Federal Reserve has been telling us that the labor market is too strong to justify cutting rates."
Correct
The Federal Reserve previously stated that the unemployment rate was low and the labor market was at or near maximum employment.
"The unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is at or near maximum employment."
Correct
There are potentially interesting, non-obvious reasons why the jobs numbers were significantly inaccurate.
"So, the question is then, what might be the real reason that they got it so wrong? And here's where it gets really interesting."
Unrated
Donald Trump claims that BLS job numbers were intentionally manipulated, citing overstatements of 818,000 jobs in March 2024 and 112,000 jobs in August/September 2024.
"President Trump posted this on Truth Social. and he says that the jobs numbers were manipulated on purpose, not just recently, but going back to March 2024 when he says that the BLS overstated jobs by 818,000 and again right before the election in August and September by another 112,000."
Pending
A claimed motive for alleged job number manipulation was to make the Democratic party appear economically strong.
"Because maybe they wanted the Democratic party to look strong in the economy and win."
Pending
President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics due to concerns about job number accuracy.
"That's also why President Trump fired the person in charge of the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
Incorrect
Two primary explanations are proposed for the recent inaccuracies in economic data.
"The two most likely explanations for what really happened."
Pending
The birth-death model's assumption of business creation may be flawed in a high interest rate environment, where business closures might outpace openings.
"The problem with that though is what if that assumption is totally wrong? In a high interest rate environment like the one that we're in right now, it's very possible that more businesses are closing than opening."
Correct
The birth-death model might be artificially inflating job numbers due to incorrect assumptions about business creation.
"But their model might still be adding phantom invisible jobs to the total because of these bad assumptions."
Incorrect
Current economic measurement tools are considered outdated and inaccurate.
"The real problem is that the tools we're using to measure the economy are fundamentally outdated and they're wrong."
Pending
The Federal Reserve relies on job numbers to inform decisions regarding interest rates and the cost of borrowing.
"The Fed uses these job numbers to decide what to do with interest rates, how expensive it is for us to borrow money."
Correct
A weaker-than-expected job market significantly alters the economic outlook and Fed policy considerations.
"If the job market is way weaker than we thought, well, that changes everything."
Correct
There is a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates by at least 0.25%.
"And right now, it's predicting a 90% chance that the Fed will start to lower rates by at least a quarter of a basis point."
Correct
The July 2025 jobs report showed only 73,000 jobs added, significantly below expectations and the lowest monthly figure since the pandemic.
"The July jobs report, which is the most recent one we have on file, and it came in at only 73,000 jobs added. That's not only way lower than expectations, that's the lowest monthly number since the pandemic."
Incorrect
Given recent data revisions, there's skepticism about whether the 73,000 jobs added in July are an accurate figure, suggesting further downward revisions are possible.
"And after what we just learned, you kind of have to ask yourself, is 73,000 jobs actually 7,000 jobs later once it's revised?"
Incorrect
Consistently failing to add the necessary 80,000-100,000 jobs per month to maintain stability indicates a shrinking job market.
"If we're consistently coming in below the numbers that we need, which is 80 to 100,000 jobs just to stay flat, that means the job market is actually getting smaller."
Incorrect
A shrinking job market leads to recessions.
"When that happens, these happen, recessions."
Correct
In the July meeting, Fed Governors Waller and Bowman dissented from the majority, advocating for a rate cut due to perceived stress in the labor market.
"At their July meeting, there were two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and they actually disagreed with the majority of the Fed because they wanted a rate cut at that meeting, arguing the labor market was actually showing signs of stress."
Incorrect
A dissenting Fed governor predicted that anticipated revisions would reveal significantly lower job growth than currently estimated.
"One of them said that once the expected revisions come in, job growth will be a lot smaller than we think."
Correct
Fed Governors Waller and Bowman advocated for a 0.25% rate cut, explaining their reasoning after the July meeting.
"Governors Waller and Bowman continuing that tradition of explaining their dissents on the Friday after the meeting and uh they're both saying why they uh wanted or preferred a quarter point rate cut"
Incorrect
The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate: controlling inflation and promoting maximum employment.
"The Fed has a dual mandate meaning they've got two goals to keep inflation under control and to support maximum employment."
Pending
With cooling inflation and a slowing labor market, the Federal Reserve has sufficient justification to begin lowering interest rates.
"So, if inflation is cooling, and it is, and now that the labor market is slowing down, then they have more than enough reasons to start lowering interest rates."
Correct
The stock market is already anticipating a reduction in interest rates.
"And Wall Street, the stock market's already betting on it."
Correct
A significant market downturn may have already occurred, and the market is now factoring in a recovery.
"The bad dip might have already happened, and now we're pricing in a recovery."
Correct
The speaker is dollar-cost averaging into the broad market, not making large concentrated bets, holding onto existing investments, monitoring the Fed, and increasing cash reserves for potential market pullbacks.
"I'm dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I'm not going allin on anything right now. I'm not selling anything, but I am paying close attention to the next Fed meeting, and I'm building up a little bit more cash than usual just in case we see a bigger pullback."
Correct
If the current job numbers are accurate, the promised 'soft landing' for the economy may not have materialized.
"if the jobs numbers are really right, then maybe we didn't get the soft landing that we were promised."
Incorrect
The speaker suggests that the Fed chair (Powell) should lower interest rates.
"Drone pow, lower interest rates."
Incorrect