Google’s Willow vs Bitcoin: Are Your Coins Safe?
Published: 2024-12-13
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-12-13
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Google's Willow quantum chip has significantly improved qubit coherence time, enabling more complex calculations with fewer errors.
"Google's Willow chip has increased coherence time from 20 microseconds to 100 microseconds, a fivefold improvement."
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The Willow quantum chip incorporates tunable qubits and AI for real-time error correction, marking a significant step in quantum computing reliability.
"Willow has introduced a more effective way to solve quantum errors with new hardware features like tunable qubits, which allows engineers to fix the error in real time using AI with things like machine learning and neural networks."
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Current quantum computers, like Google's Willow with 105 qubits, are far from having the 1 million+ qubits needed to break Bitcoin's ECDSA 256 encryption.
"Some estimates say that in order to break ECDSA 256, it would require over 1 million qubits. Google's Willow chip only has 105 qubits."
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Cracking Bitcoin's SHA 256 encryption with quantum computers would require an astronomically large number of qubits (millions), making it practically impossible with current technology.
"To crack SHA 256, even with Grover's algorithm, you'd still need to search through 2^128 possible outcomes. Some estimates say it would take millions of error-corrected qubits."
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A minority view suggests that as few as 22,000 logical qubits could be sufficient to break SHA 256, posing a potential future threat to Bitcoin.
"Some people say that we actually need as little as 22,000 logical qubits to break SHA 256."
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The next 10-20 years are projected to witness unprecedented technological advancement, leading to a wealth creation surge exceeding the past century.
"It's predicted that in the next 10 to 20 years, we will see more technological progress and as a result more wealth creation than we've seen in the last 100 years combined."
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Within the next two years, art and collectibles are anticipated to constitute approximately 11% of the investment portfolios of the ultra-wealthy.
"Art and collectibles are expected to make up roughly 11% of the portfolios of ultra-high net worth individuals in the next 2 years."
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A widespread quantum attack capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption would simultaneously compromise critical global financial, healthcare, and military systems, indicating Bitcoin would not be the primary concern.
"When quantum computers reach a point where they can break Bitcoin's encryption, the same quantum computers would also break encryption protecting banks, healthcare systems, stock markets, and military communications, making Bitcoin the least of everyone's worries."
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It is plausible that a powerful quantum computer could be used to attack a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin first, not for financial gain, but to demonstrate technological capability without legal repercussions.
"If a company has a powerful enough quantum computer, it wouldn't want to attack a bank or a country that's kind of illegal, but a cryptocurrency that nobody owns just to prove a technological point, it's plausible."
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Bitcoin was designed with future-proofing in mind, and Satoshi Nakamoto foresaw the need for upgrades, such as hard forks, to adapt to future cryptographic challenges like those posed by quantum computing.
"Bitcoin is future-proofed and it was designed to be that way all the way from the beginning by Satoshi and he even predicted this way back in 2010 when he talked about moving over to a new hash and the way that Bitcoin can do that by the way is through an upgrade by what's called a Hard Fork."
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Efforts are underway to develop and implement quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms specifically designed to safeguard against potential future quantum computer attacks.
"The developers and researchers right now are looking at quantum computer resistant cryptography, these algorithms that they're looking into are designed to protect against Quantum attacks."
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Transitioning Bitcoin to quantum-resistant cryptography will require a coordinated effort and consensus from all stakeholders within the Bitcoin ecosystem, including miners, developers, and users.
"It's not going to be as simple as flipping a switch and upgrading the firmware for Bitcoin; it's going to take the entire community and the whole network to agree including miners, developers, nodes, users, investors, businesses, hardware wallets, everybody."
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Despite the potential threat of quantum computing, Bitcoin is expected to remain safe in the long term for those who understand its future-proofing mechanisms.
"Even if it does happen in the long term, Bitcoin will still be safe and the people that understand why will keep their Bitcoin."
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Current quantum computers are not capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption due to the requirement of millions of error-corrected qubits.
"some estimates say that it would take millions of error corrected cubits to achieve this Which is far beyond what Willow or any other quantum computer is capable of doing right now"
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Some experts believe that as few as 22,000 logical qubits may be sufficient to break SHA-256, with this capability potentially emerging in the next 10 to 20 years.
"some people say that we actually need as little as 22,000 logical cubits to break sha to 56 and it's predicted that in the next 10 to 20 years we will see more technological progress"
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The next 10 to 20 years are predicted to witness significant technological advancements leading to more wealth creation than the past century combined.
"and the next 10 to 20 years we will see more technological progress and as a result more wealth creation than we've seen in the last 100 years combined"
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If quantum computers become capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption, it implies a broader systemic security failure affecting numerous critical infrastructures before Bitcoin itself is compromised.
"when quantum computers reach a point where they can break bitcoin's encryption Bitcoin would probably be the least of everybody's worry"
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Current research is focused on developing quantum-resistant cryptography to safeguard against future quantum attacks on Bitcoin.
"the developers and the researchers right now are looking at quantum computer resistant cryptography these algorithms that they're looking into are designed to protect against Quantum attacks"
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Bitcoin is designed to be future-proof and can be secured even after a potential quantum computer attack through upgrades and community consensus.
"Bitcoin can be future proofed and it can even be saved after a quantum computer attack"
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The speaker hopes that quantum-resistant measures will be implemented before quantum computers reach a level capable of compromising current systems.
"hopefully though were able to do this before quantum computers get good enough"
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Quantum computing and AI advancement will accelerate, potentially leading to the cracking of current algorithms within the next 10 years.
"the rate of advancement is actually getting faster and faster thanks to these AI language learning models and quantum computers which means maybe in the next 10 years we will be able to crack all these algorithms"
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If quantum computers become capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption, they will simultaneously break the encryption protecting critical financial, governmental, and personal data systems worldwide.
"when quantum computers reach a point where they can break bitcoin's encryption Bitcoin would probably be the least of everybody's worry Think about it the same quantum computers that could crack Bitcoin would also break bre the encryption that protects Banks and all those checking and savings accounts Health Care Systems stock markets military Communications and of course our personal data"
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Bitcoin is a plausible first target for a company with a powerful quantum computer to demonstrate technological capability, rather than illegally attacking banks or countries.
"if we ever do reach a level of Now You See Me to Quantum capability the entire world would be in trouble not just Bitcoin but I do think that it's plausible to assume that Bitcoin could be the first attacked because if a company has a powerful enough quantum computer it wouldn't want to attack a bank or a country that's kind of illegal but a cryptocurrency that nobody owns just to prove a technological point it's plausible"
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Quantum computing's advent is considered inevitable ('a when problem'), not a hypothetical scenario ('an if problem').
"Quantum Computing is not an if problem it's a when problem it will happen"
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Despite a potential short-term crash and sell-off due to a quantum attack, Bitcoin is predicted to recover in the long term as its underlying safety mechanisms are understood by knowledgeable individuals.
"even if it does happen in the long term Bitcoin will still be safe and the people that understand why will keep their Bitcoin unfortunately most people will probably sell because they don't watch Nerdy YouTube videos like this especially all the way to the end but Bitcoin will recover"
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Bitcoin was designed to be future-proofed by its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, who foresaw the need to transition to new hashing algorithms via hard forks.
"Bitcoin is future proofed and it was designed to be that way all the way from the beginning by Satoshi and he even predicted this way back in 2010 when he talked about moving over to a new hash and the way that Bitcoin can do that by the way is through an upgrade by what's called A Hard Fork"
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Developers and researchers are actively developing quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms to protect against future quantum attacks.
"the developers and the researchers right now are looking at quantum computer resistant cryptography these algorithms that they're looking into are designed to protect against Quantum attacks"
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Implementing quantum-resistant cryptography in Bitcoin will require network-wide consensus from all stakeholders; users can passively contribute by holding coins on the blockchain and using new addresses for transactions.
"it's going to take the entire community and the whole network to agree including miners developers nodes users investors businesses Hardware wallets everybody but as users and investors of Bitcoin all we have to do do is nothing just hold the coins on the blockchain and try to use a new address every time you transact without revealing your public address"
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Bitcoin has the capability to be future-proofed and to survive even after a quantum computer attack.
"the point is that Bitcoin can be future proofed and it can even be saved after a quantum computer attack"
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Quantum computers introduce significant questions regarding privacy, data security, and the responsible use of technology.
"at the same time quantum computers do raise a lot of questions about everything else like privacy and security and how do we protect our data and how do we make sure it's used responsibly"
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Breaking Bitcoin's ECDSA 256 encryption will require over 1 million qubits.
"some estimates say that in order to do that breaking ecdsa 256 would require over 1 million cubits"
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Cracking SHA 256 with Grover's algorithm will require searching through 2^128 possible outcomes, a computationally immense task.
"to crack Shaw 256 a quantum computer would need to use something called Grover's algorithm which theoretically speeds up the process by reducing the number of operations required to find a hash but even with this Quantum speed up you'd still need to search through two to the 128 possible outcomes"
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Millions of error-corrected qubits will be needed to break Bitcoin's encryption, which is currently beyond the capabilities of any quantum computer.
"some estimates say that it would take millions of error corrected cubits to achieve this Which is far beyond what Willow or any other quantum computer is capable of doing right now"
Pending
A minority view suggests that as few as 22,000 logical qubits might be sufficient to break SHA 256.
"Some people say that we actually need as little as 22,000 logical cubits to break sha to 56"
Pending
The next 10-20 years are predicted to see more technological progress and wealth creation than the previous 100 years combined.
"it's predicted that in the next 10 to 20 years we will see more technological progress and as a result more wealth creation than we've seen in the last 100 years combined"
Pending
If quantum computers can break Bitcoin's encryption, it implies that global financial and security systems would also be compromised, making Bitcoin the least of the worries.
"when quantum computers reach a point where they can break bitcoin's encryption Bitcoin would probably be the least of everybody's worry"
Pending
The advent of quantum computing is considered inevitable ('a when problem'), not a hypothetical ('an if problem').
"Quantum Computing is not an if problem it's a when problem it will happen"
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Bitcoin has the capability to undergo hard forks, as evidenced by the 2017 split into Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.
"Bitcoin is capable of doing that and it has done that before in the past in fact in 2017 Bitcoin split into two different Forks Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash"
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Developers and researchers are actively working on quantum-computer-resistant cryptography for Bitcoin.
"the developers and the researchers right now are looking at quantum computer resistant cryptography"
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Bitcoin is designed to be future-proof and can be secured even after a quantum computer attack.
"Bitcoin can be future proofed and it can even be saved after a quantum computer attack"
Pending