You’ll Never Own Your Home (The 50 Year Mortgage)
Published: 2025-11-13
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-11-13
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 6
Prediction
Topic
Status
Extending mortgage terms will lead to an immediate increase in home prices, negating the affordability benefit.
"home prices would almost instantly adjust upward to match whatever payment people can afford."
Correct
Longer mortgage terms will continually decrease monthly payments, theoretically making any home affordable.
"The longer we stretch the loan, the more we make the monthly payment smaller all the way down to basically nothing."
Incorrect
Making debt financing artificially cheaper will drive up the price of the asset being financed.
"If the cost to pay your debt becomes artificially cheap, the price of the thing itself being financed will not stay cheap. It'll get bit up and up and up."
Correct
The introduction of 50-year mortgages will cause home prices to increase by roughly the same percentage that monthly payments decrease.
"The moment you introduce the 50-year mortgage, remember, home prices adjust upward. If the monthly payment gets 10% cheaper, the price of the house itself will go up about 10% to compensate."
Pending
Extending mortgage terms will not solve housing affordability issues and will likely lead to price inflation instead.
"longer mortgages don't solve affordability. All they'll do is inflate the price."
Correct
To truly make housing affordable, solutions beyond extending loan terms are needed, including increasing supply through easier building and zoning changes, portable interest rates, using rental history for mortgages, and adjusting capital gains tax rules for primary residences.
"If we really want to make houses more affordable, there's much better options to consider. things like making it easier to build homes, changing zoning so we can create more supply, letting people carry their old interest rate to their next house like Graham Stefen mentioned, letting people use their rental history as proof they could pay for a mortgage, raising the capital gains exclusion on primary home sales so more people could actually afford to sell their house so that it could free up some inventory and maybe to some degree limiting home buyers for investors."
Pending
The core issue with housing affordability is a lack of supply, not the length of mortgage terms.
"The problem is not how long the loan is. If we really want to make houses more affordable, we just need more homes."
Pending
Wealthy individuals often extend debt and invest the difference, a strategy that can be financially advantageous.
"The way really wealthy families think about this is they'll stretch their debt and they'll invest the difference."
Pending
Consistently investing a monthly difference of $219 at a 7% annual return for 50 years could result in approximately $1.2 million.
"Over 50 years, that $219 a month investment would grow to about $1.2 million."
Pending
Investing $219 monthly in Bitcoin, with an assumed 12% annual return over 50 years, could grow to approximately $8.5 million.
"Over 50 years, Bitcoin's average would come down to about 12% per year. That means your $219 a month investment over 50 years would grow to about $8.5 million."
Pending
Extending the loan term progressively reduces the monthly payment, theoretically towards zero.
"the longer we stretch the loan, the more we make the monthly payment smaller all the way down to basically nothing."
Correct
The mathematical advantage of a 50-year mortgage is undermined by human fallibility in consistent investing and by market-driven price adjustments.
"the moment you realize you're a human, it's probably not going to happen. But all of this math actually even gets blown up anyway because the moment you introduce the 50-year mortgage, remember, home prices adjust upward."
Pending
Decreasing interest rates lead to inflation in asset prices across stocks, crypto, and real estate.
"asset prices go up, stocks inflate, crypto inflates, houses inflate."
Correct
Purely based on mathematical calculation, the 50-year mortgage investor may have a slight advantage, contrary to initial expectations.
"purely from a math perspective, actually, yes, the 50-year investor still wins by a small amount, which actually surprised me."
Pending
The acquisition of single-family homes by large investment firms like Blackstone and BlackRock is predicted to negatively impact housing prices.
"Blackstone and Black Rockck buying up single family homes cannot be good for prices."
Correct
Introducing a 50-year mortgage will likely lead to a 10% increase in home prices, negating the monthly payment savings.
"If the monthly payment gets 10% cheaper, the price of the house itself will go up about 10% to compensate."
Pending
Investing the monthly savings from a 50-year mortgage at a 7% annual return for 50 years could result in approximately $1.2 million.
"Over 50 years, that $219 a month investment would grow to about $1.2 million."
Pending
Specific policy changes proposed to address housing affordability include easier home building, revised zoning for increased supply, portability of interest rates, using rental history for mortgage approval, higher capital gains exclusion on primary homes, and limiting investor purchases.
"things like making it easier to build homes, changing zoning so we can create more supply, letting people carry their old interest rate to their next house like Graham Stefen mentioned, letting people use their rental history as proof they could pay for a mortgage, raising the capital gains exclusion on primary home sales so more people could actually afford to sell their house so that it could free up some inventory and maybe to some degree limiting home buyers for investors."
Pending
Investing the monthly savings from a 50-year mortgage into Bitcoin, assuming a 12% average annual return over 50 years, could result in approximately $8.5 million.
"That means your $219 a month investment over 50 years would grow to about $8.5 million."
Pending
Loan term extensions are seen as a temporary fix for housing affordability; more impactful solutions are needed.
"The problem is not how long the loan is. If we really want to make houses more affordable, there's much better options to consider."
Correct
Mathematically, a 50-year mortgage investor can achieve a slightly better financial outcome than a 30-year mortgage buyer, even when accounting for additional investment periods of the 30-year buyer.
"purely from a math perspective, actually, yes, the 50-year investor still wins by a small amount"
Pending
The acquisition of single-family homes by large investment firms like Blackstone and BlackRock is predicted to negatively impact home prices.
"Blackstone and Black Rockck buying up single family homes cannot be good for prices."
Incorrect
True housing affordability can be achieved by increasing home construction, relaxing zoning laws, allowing interest rate portability, using rental history for mortgage approval, increasing capital gains exclusion on primary homes, and potentially limiting investor purchases.
"If we really want to make houses more affordable, there's much better options to consider. things like making it easier to build homes, changing zoning so we can create more supply, letting people carry their old interest rate to their next house like Graham Stefen mentioned, letting people use their rental history as proof they could pay for a mortgage, raising the capital gains exclusion on primary home sales so more people could actually afford to sell their house so that it could free up some inventory and maybe to some degree limiting home buyers for investors."
Pending
Increasing the supply of homes, rather than extending mortgage terms, is the key to making housing affordable.
"The truth is, if you want homes to become affordable again, we don't need to stretch the debt longer. We just need more homes."
Pending
Increasing the housing supply is identified as the primary solution for making homes affordable again, rather than extending mortgage terms.
"if you want homes to become affordable again, we don't need to stretch the debt longer. We just need more homes."
Correct
Extending mortgage loan terms is viewed as a temporary measure that does not address the underlying problem of housing affordability.
"The length of the loan cures the symptom temporarily. The problem is not how long the loan is."
Correct
Wealthy individuals tend to utilize longer-term debt to free up capital for investment purposes.
"The way really wealthy families think about this is they'll stretch their debt and they'll invest the difference."
Pending
The assumption of perfect, consistent investment behavior over 50 years is deemed unrealistic due to human fallibility.
"the moment you realize you're a human, it's probably not going to happen."
Pending
The introduction of a 50-year mortgage will likely cause home prices to increase by approximately 10%, offsetting the initial monthly payment reduction.
"the moment you introduce the 50-year mortgage, remember, home prices adjust upward. If the monthly payment gets 10% cheaper, the price of the house itself will go up about 10% to compensate."
Pending
The speaker questions the arbitrary limit of 50-year mortgages, suggesting that if the principle of cheaper monthly payments holds, longer terms like 100 or 500 years could logically follow.
"If longer mortgages make monthly payments cheaper, which they do, then why would we stop at 50? Why not do a 100? Why not a 500year mortgage? Why not a,000 years?"
Pending
Suggests several policy changes to improve housing affordability beyond extending mortgage terms, including increasing home construction, altering zoning laws, allowing interest rate portability, using rental history for mortgage qualification, increasing capital gains exclusion on primary homes, and limiting investor purchases.
"If we really want to make houses more affordable, there's much better options to consider. things like making it easier to build homes, changing zoning so we can create more supply, letting people carry their old interest rate to their next house like Graham Stefen mentioned, letting people use their rental history as proof they could pay for a mortgage, raising the capital gains exclusion on primary home sales so more people could actually afford to sell their house so that it could free up some inventory and maybe to some degree limiting home buyers for investors."
Pending
Predicts that making borrowing artificially cheap (e.g., through longer mortgages) will lead to an increase in the price of the financed asset (housing), similar to how falling interest rates inflate asset prices.
"If the cost to pay your debt becomes artificially cheap, the price of the thing itself being financed will not stay cheap. It'll get bit up and up and up. That's exactly what happens when interest rates drop. And we've seen this. Asset prices go up, stocks inflate, crypto inflates, houses inflate."
Correct
When the cost of borrowing becomes significantly reduced, the price of the asset being financed is expected to rise in response due to increased demand.
"If the cost to pay your debt becomes artificially cheap, the price of the thing itself being financed will not stay cheap. It'll get bit up and up and up."
Correct
Consistent monthly investments of $219 over 50 years, with a 7% annual return, could result in a portfolio of approximately $1.2 million.
"over 50 years, that $219 a month investment would grow to about $1.2 million."
Pending
Hypothesizes that if a 100-year mortgage were available, increased buyer affordability would lead to a rapid escalation of home prices as competition drives offers up.
"So, here's what would happen. I show up to the open house along with a hundred other people like me and I'm like, "Well, I could afford that monthly payment and the other 99 people are like, "Well, we could too. Give me the house." Right? So, for me to get that house, I would have to offer more than all those other people. Well, then eventually that $5 million house turns into a $10 million house, a 20 million, a $50 million house. Because once you make borrowing money very long-term, home prices would almost instantly adjust upward to match whatever payment people can afford."
Pending
A consistent monthly investment of $219 in Bitcoin over 50 years, assuming a 12% annual return, could potentially grow to $8.5 million.
"over 50 years, Bitcoin's average would come down to about 12% per year. That means your $219 a month investment over 50 years would grow to about $8.5 million."
Pending
Contrasts the financial strategy of the wealthy (stretching debt to invest the difference) with the likely reality for most people, suggesting that inconsistent investment behavior makes the 50-year mortgage less viable for the average person.
"The way really wealthy families think about this is they'll stretch their debt and they'll invest the difference. But for the majority of normal people, life is sloppy. Life is chaotic. It's not a spreadsheet. And most people are not going to be investing the difference for 50 years perfectly."
Pending
Due to inflation and the time value of money, the future cost of paying off a 50-year mortgage will be less significant in real terms than it appears today.
"paying off a mortgage in 50 years will not be as bad as it sounds in today's money."
Pending
Projects that investing $219 per month in a VO ETF at a 7% annual return for 50 years would result in approximately $1.2 million.
"Over 50 years, that $219 a month investment would grow to about $1.2 million."
Pending
A 50-year mortgage can be financially advantageous for individuals who are highly disciplined investors, consistently investing the difference in monthly payments.
"The 50-year mortgage is just a tool. If you're an absolute machine with your money, and you treat investing like it's consistent, it's automatic, and mathematically, assuming all else is equal, the 50-year mortgage can work out in your favor."
Pending
Projects that investing $219 per month in Bitcoin, assuming a 12% average annual return over 50 years, would result in approximately $8.5 million.
"That means your $219 a month investment over 50 years would grow to about $8.5 million."
Pending
The speaker believes that most individuals will not maintain the perfect investment consistency required for a 50-year mortgage to be financially beneficial due to life's unpredictability.
"for the majority of normal people, life is sloppy. Life is chaotic. It's not a spreadsheet. And most people are not going to be investing the difference for 50 years perfectly."
Pending
The 30-year mortgage is considered a safer option for the average person, offering the advantage of becoming debt-free within one's lifetime.
"the 30-year mortgage seems like it's the safer bet because there's an actual finish line. You actually get to be debtree during your lifetime and then hopefully still have a couple decades left worth of freedom."
Pending
Predicts that introducing a 50-year mortgage, which makes monthly payments 10% cheaper, will cause house prices to increase by approximately 10% to offset the affordability gain.
"If the monthly payment gets 10% cheaper, the price of the house itself will go up about 10% to compensate."
Pending
The long-term duration of investment, rather than the amount invested, is highlighted as the key factor in wealth accumulation through compounding.
"the magic of investing is not about how much money you invest. It's about how long you invest it for."
Unrated
The feasibility of consistently investing the difference in monthly payments over a 50-year mortgage is questioned due to the unpredictable nature of human behavior.
"the moment you realize you're a human, it's probably not going to happen."
Pending
Argues that extending mortgage terms only temporarily addresses housing affordability issues and that fundamental solutions lie in increasing housing supply through easier construction and revised zoning laws.
"The length of the loan cures the symptom temporarily. The problem is not how long the loan is. If we really want to make houses more affordable, there's much better options to consider. things like making it easier to build homes, changing zoning so we can create more supply..."
Correct
Increasing the housing supply is identified as the critical factor for achieving housing affordability, rather than extending mortgage terms.
"The truth is, if you want homes to become affordable again, we don't need to stretch the debt longer. We just need more homes."
Pending
Calculates a monthly payment of approximately $2,202 for a $320,000 loan at 6.5% interest over 30 years.
"So you borrow 320K at 6 12% for 30 years. Your monthly payment would come out to about $2,202."
Incorrect
Estimates that a 50-year mortgage for the same loan amount would result in a monthly payment of approximately $1,800.
"Well, in that case, your monthly payment would drop to about $1,800."
Incorrect
States that a 50-year mortgage would result in paying an additional $354,000 in interest compared to a 30-year mortgage over the life of the loan.
"On the 50-year loan, you would pay $1,82,000 over the life of the loan. That is more than $354,000 extra than the 30-year option, just an interest."
Unrated
Concludes that, mathematically, a 50-year mortgage combined with investing the monthly payment difference results in a slightly better outcome than a 30-year mortgage, contrary to the speaker's initial expectation.
"So, purely from a math perspective, actually, yes, the 50-year investor still wins by a small amount, which actually surprised me. I thought the 30-year buyer with an additional 20-year investment would come out ahead."
Pending
Highlights the significance of the duration of investment, rather than just the amount invested, in achieving wealth accumulation through compounding.
"The magic of investing is not about how much money you invest. It's about how long you invest it for."
Correct
Predicts that home prices will rapidly increase to align with the maximum affordable monthly payment if borrowing terms are extended.
"home prices would almost instantly adjust upward to match whatever payment people can afford."
Incorrect
Asserts that when the cost of debt financing becomes cheaper, the price of the asset being financed will rise proportionally.
"The price of the thing itself being financed will not stay cheap. It'll get bit up and up and up."
Correct
Explains that reducing monthly mortgage payments through longer loan terms will lead to increased house prices until the monthly payment reaches the maximum buyers can afford.
"If you make that monthly number smaller, the market responds by raising the price of the house until the monthly payment returns back to the highest amount that buyers can tolerate."
Correct
Predicts that the introduction of 50-year mortgages will lead to an increase in home prices.
"Prices would adjust upward."
Correct
Contends that extending mortgage terms will not improve housing affordability because home prices will rise commensurately, leading only to price inflation.
"home prices would just go up by about the same amount, which means that longer mortgages don't solve affordability. All they'll do is inflate the price."
Incorrect
Reiterates the prediction that a 50-year mortgage will cause home prices to rise by roughly 10% to counteract the 10% reduction in monthly payments.
"the moment you introduce the 50-year mortgage, remember, home prices adjust upward. If the monthly payment gets 10% cheaper, the price of the house itself will go up about 10% to compensate."
Pending
Concludes that market forces will negate any perceived financial advantage of longer mortgages by adjusting prices accordingly.
"So, ironically, none of this actually matters because the market prices it all away eventually anyway."
Correct
Suggests that a 50-year mortgage can be financially advantageous if one invests the saved monthly difference consistently and automatically, treating it like a mechanical process.
"The 50-year mortgage is just a tool. If you're an absolute machine with your money, and you treat investing like it's consistent, it's automatic, and mathematically, assuming all else is equal, the 50-year mortgage can work out in your favor."
Pending
Argues that the 30-year mortgage is a safer choice for most people due to the predictability of human error and the clear end date of the loan.
"When accounting for human error, the 30-year mortgage seems like it's the safer bet because there's an actual finish line."
Pending
Emphasizes the immense psychological value of being debt-free, considering it more significant than financial gains.
"I don't think I could put a value on that. It's a piece of mind that's worth so much more than actual money to me."
Correct
States that the core solution to housing affordability is increasing the supply of homes, rather than extending mortgage terms.
"The truth is, if you want homes to become affordable again, we don't need to stretch the debt longer. We just need more homes."
Correct
Suggests that limiting the number of homes purchased by investors could contribute to making housing more affordable.
"limiting home buyers for investors."
Correct
Expresses the view that large-scale purchases of single-family homes by entities like Blackstone and BlackRock are detrimental to housing prices.
"Blackstone and Black Rockck buying up single family homes cannot be good for prices."
Correct