ilmscore | $2,000 Stimulus Check Update — Trump Says "Dividend Will Be Paid"

Predictions from this Video

Total: 11
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 6
Pending: 5
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
President Trump promised a dividend of at least $2,000 per person (excluding high-income individuals).
"the $2,000 tariff dividend. As a refresher, here's what President Trump posted on November 9th on Truth Social. He said, "A dividend of at least $2,000 a person, not including high-income people, will be paid to everyone.""
Stimulus Check
Incorrect
Poly Markets indicates a 7% probability of President Trump issuing a $2,000 stimulus check in 2025.
"And according to Poly Markets, the market believes that there's a 7% chance that President Trump's going to issue a $2,000 stimulus check in 2025."
POLY
Pending
President Trump promised a stimulus check of at least $2,000 per person (excluding high-income individuals).
"President Trump posted on November 9th on Truth Social. He said, "A dividend of at least $2,000 a person, not including high-income people, will be paid to everyone.""
US Stimulus Check
Incorrect
President Trump stated that any remaining tariff income after $2,000 payments to low and middle-income citizens would be used to pay down national debt.
"President Trump wrote, "All money left over from the $2,000 payments made to low and middle inome USA citizens from the massive tariff income pouring into our country from foreign nations, which will be substantial, will be used to substantially pay down national debts.""
US Stimulus Check
Incorrect
Tariff revenue in 2025 is projected to be slightly under $300 billion.
"As you can see, the revenue collected this year from tariffs is so much higher than previous years. Right now, as of November, it's at $228 billion. But of course, the year isn't over yet. For December, the government is expected to collect about another $35 billion, maybe 40 billion, you know, on the high end. And then we have the rest of November, right? So the final figure for the year, it's going to come around slightly under $300 billion for the entirety of 2025."
US Tariffs
Pending
A $2,000 stimulus check is estimated to cost $600 billion.
"the $1,400 stimulus check that was issued back in 2021, that cost $411 billion. ... if you're talking about a $2,000 tariff dividend or stimulus check, that's going to cost $600 billion."
US Stimulus Check Cost
Pending
The market estimates a 7% chance of President Trump issuing a $2,000 stimulus check in 2025.
"according to Poly Markets, the market believes that there's a 7% chance that President Trump's going to issue a $2,000 stimulus check in 2025."
US Stimulus Check Likelihood
Incorrect
There is a 27% chance of President Trump issuing a $2,000 stimulus check by March 31, 2026.
"the market says that there's a 27% chance that President Trump issues the $2,000 stimulus check by March 31st of next year."
US Stimulus Check Likelihood
Incorrect
A stimulus check of this size would likely only be issued if the economy collapses or a bailout is required.
"the only way that the government's going to issue a stimulus check, especially of this size, is if the economy craters or if a bailout is needed, which threatens an economic cratering."
US Stimulus Check Likelihood
Pending
President Trump is claiming tariffs are generating trillions of dollars by including potential future manufacturing investments.
"President Trump is saying that the tariffs are bringing in trillions of dollars because he's counting potential economic investments in the manufacturing industry over the coming years."
US Tariffs Revenue
Pending
The US manufacturing sector has lost over 50,000 jobs since April (tariff liberation day).
"since tariff liberation day in April, the manufacturing sector here in the US has lost more than 50,000 jobs."
US Manufacturing Jobs
Incorrect
President Trump's tariffs are currently under challenge in the Supreme Court.
"President Trump's tariffs are being challenged in the Supreme Court now."
US Tariffs Legality
Pending
If the Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, revenue could drop to under $100 billion.
"If the Supreme Court says that President Trump's tariffs are illegal and they have to be voted through Congress, then most of the tariffs would be struck down and then the tariffs would only bring in under $100 billion."
US Tariffs Revenue (if illegal)
Pending