The Fed Is Conflicted — Markets Are Losing Confidence (Bitcoin • Stocks • Gold • Silver)
Published: 2025-11-21
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-11-21
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 4
Prediction
Topic
Status
The market's expectation for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has diminished.
"the market had a near certain expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in December. Now, that's no longer the case"
Correct
A significant number of Federal Reserve participants believe interest rates should remain unchanged for the remainder of the year.
"Many participants suggested that under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year."
Correct
The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December had decreased to 32.8% by November 19th.
"the odds of a rate cut in December fell to 32.8% as of Wednesday, November 19th."
Incorrect
Following the jobs report on November 20th, the likelihood of a December rate cut rose from 32.8% to 39.5%.
"After the jobs report was released on Thursday, November 20th, the odds of a rate cut actually increased from 32.8% to 39.5%."
Correct
The US unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.4%.
"The unemployment rate went up from 4.3% the prior month to 4.4%."
Correct
Job numbers for August were revised downwards, indicating job losses during that month.
"for the prior month, so we're talking about August, that was revised downward by 26,000 jobs. So that means jobs were lost in August."
Incorrect
The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with job losses in August and an increasing unemployment rate.
"the labor market is weakening. Jobs were lost in August and the unemployment rate went up."
Incorrect
October saw a significant increase in US job cuts, with employers announcing 153,74 such reductions.
"In October, there was a massive spike in job cuts. In October, US-based employers announced 153,74 job cuts."
Correct
By the end of the first 10 months of 2025, a total of 1,99,500 job cuts were announced by employers.
"For the 10 months of 2025, employers have announced 1,99,500 job cuts."
Correct
More companies announced plans for future layoffs in the current period compared to the same period in 2024, with 450 instances versus 400.
"more companies compared to 2024 announced more plans for further layoffs. So we're talking about 450 compared to 400 last year."
Correct
There are differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts: some propose a 0.5% cut, others a 0.25% cut, some no cut, and many advocate for no cuts for the remainder of the year.
"some of the members wanted a half point interest rate cuts. Some wanted a quarter point cuts, some wanted no cut at all, and many said no cuts for the rest of the year."
Correct
The Federal Reserve will cease quantitative tightening (QT) starting in December.
"Starting in December, the Federal Reserve is ending quantitative tightening."
Correct
There is a 70.1% probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve occurring in either the December or January meeting.
"there's a 70.1% chance that they're going to cut interest rates at either this December meeting or at the meeting in January."
Correct
There is a 19.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts at both the December and January meetings.
"there's a 19.9% chance that they're going to cut interest rates at both the December meeting and the January meeting."
Incorrect